Tarefa paper_repro.angrist_evans_1998.tab7_c5_weeks.agent

Veredito

Pergunta feita ao analista

Angrist and Evans (1998), 'Children and Their Parents' Labor Supply', Table 7, column (5): in the 1980 Census sample of married women aged 21-35 with two or more children, estimate by two-stage least squares the effect of having more than 2 children on the mother's weeks worked in 1979, using as the instrument the indicator that the first two children are of the same sex. Include as covariates the mother's age and indicators for a first-born boy, a second-born boy, and Black, Hispanic and other race; the paper also includes the age at first birth, which this file does not have. Report the coefficient on having more than 2 children.

Como o agente resolveu e como foi validado

Resumo passo a passo do que o agente executou, por que o caminho está correto e como cada verificação conferiu o resultado.

1. 1Preparação da base de dados
   fertility— The 1980 Census sample of Angrist and Evans (1998), 'Children and Their Parents' Labor Supply', as distributed in the R package AER (data set Fertility, served by Rdatasets): married women aged 21-35 with two or more children, one row per woman (254,654 rows). Columns: gender1 and gender2, the sex of the first and the second child ('male' or 'female'); boy1st and boy2nd, 1 if the first (second) child is a boy; samesex, 1 if the first two children are of the same sex (two boys or two girls); morekids, 1 if the mother has more than 2 children; agem1, the mother's age in years; blackm, hispm and othracem, 1 if the mother is Black, Hispanic, or of another race (white is the reference); weeksm1, the number of weeks the mother worked in 1979. The file has no age at first birth.
   Transformação "derive" aplicada à base "fertility" (254654 → 254654 linhas). {"args":{"column":"morekids","default":null,"keep_unmapped":false,"mapping":[{"source":"yes","target":1},{"source":"no","target":0}]},"name":"morekids","op":"map"}
   Transformação "derive" aplicada à base "fertility" (254654 → 254654 linhas). {"args":{"column":"afam","default":null,"keep_unmapped":false,"mapping":[{"source":"yes","target":1},{"source":"no","target":0}]},"name":"blackm","op":"map"}
   Transformação "derive" aplicada à base "fertility" (254654 → 254654 linhas). {"args":{"column":"hispanic","default":null,"keep_unmapped":false,"mapping":[{"source":"yes","target":1},{"source":"no","target":0}]},"name":"hispm","op":"map"}
   Transformação "derive" aplicada à base "fertility" (254654 → 254654 linhas). {"args":{"column":"other","default":null,"keep_unmapped":false,"mapping":[{"source":"yes","target":1},{"source":"no","target":0}]},"name":"othracem","op":"map"}
   Transformação "derive" aplicada à base "fertility" (254654 → 254654 linhas). {"args":{"column":"gender1","default":null,"keep_unmapped":false,"mapping":[{"source":"male","target":1},{"source":"female","target":0}]},"name":"boy1st","op":"map"}
   Transformação "derive" aplicada à base "fertility" (254654 → 254654 linhas). {"args":{"column":"gender2","default":null,"keep_unmapped":false,"mapping":[{"source":"male","target":1},{"source":"female","target":0}]},"name":"boy2nd","op":"map"}
   Transformação "derive" aplicada à base "fertility" (254654 → 254654 linhas). {"args":{"left":"boy1st","right":"boy2nd"},"name":"sex_gap","op":"diff"}
   Transformação "derive" aplicada à base "fertility" (254654 → 254654 linhas). {"args":{"cmp":"eq","column":"sex_gap","value":0},"name":"samesex","op":"indicator"}
   Transformação "rename" aplicada à base "fertility" (254654 → 254654 linhas). {"map":{"age":"agem1","work":"weeksm1"}}
   Transformação "select" aplicada à base "fertility" (254654 → 254654 linhas). {"columns":["gender1","gender2","boy1st","boy2nd","samesex","morekids","agem1","blackm","hispm","othracem","weeksm1"]}
2. 2Chamada que gerou a resposta finalinfer.iv_2sls(Variáveis instrumentais por mínimos quadrados em dois estágios (MQ2E))citada na respostacoincide com a referência

   Ver chamada call_b0f4b4b2 nos detalhes

   Table 7, column (5): 2SLS of the mother's weeks worked on having more than 2 children, instrumented by the same-sex indicator, with age, boy first, boy second and race indicators (the file has no age at first birth).

   Por que este é o caminho de referência: Table 7, column (5): 2SLS of the mother's weeks worked on having more than 2 children, instrumented by the same-sex indicator, with age, boy first, boy second and race indicators (the file has no age at first birth).
   Argumentos principais

   dataset:

   "fertility"

   endog:

   ["morekids"]

   exog:

   ["agem1","boy1st","boy2nd","blackm","hispm","othracem"]

   instruments:

   ["samesex"]

   level:

   0,950.95

   se:

   "classical"

   y:

   "weeksm1"

   Resultado calculado

   • coef.morekids = -5,74641 -5.746409761250555
     2SLS effect of morekids on weeksm1
   Diagnósticos: first_stage_F.morekids = 1.298,941298.942196093575 (Wald F of the excluded instruments in the first stage for morekids (classical (homoskedastic) standard errors)) · partial_r2.morekids = 0,005075080.0050750844496005865 (share of the variation the instruments explain beyond the controls) · weak_instrument = false (every first-stage F is at least 10) · n_obs = 254.654254654 · se_type = "classical" (classical (homoskedastic) standard errors)
3. 3Conferência de lastro e resposta final

   Todos os 1 números escritos na resposta foram conferidos contra as ferramentas e o enunciado (nenhum número sem lastro).

   Números encontrados: -5,746
   Figuras citadas: call_b0f4b4b2:coef.morekids
   • ✓
     #0resposta com lastro

     Garante que todo número citado no texto veio de uma ferramenta ou do enunciado (sem cálculo mental do modelo).
   • ✓
     #1figura da resposta escolhida

     an answer figure: the effect of an estimator call the answer cites
   • ✓
     #2ferramenta chamadainfer.iv_2sls

     Exige que o resultado venha da ferramenta infer.iv_2sls.
   • ✓
     #3argumento igualy

     outcome: weeks worked in 1979
   • ✓
     #4argumento igualendog

     the endogenous regressor: more than 2 children
   • ✓
     #5argumento igualinstruments

     the instrument: first two children of the same sex
   • ✓
     #6argumento igualexog

     the paper's covariates available in the file
   • ✓
     #7diagnósticon_obs

     Confere o diagnóstico "n_obs" reportado pela ferramenta.
   • ✓
     #8figura da resposta próxima

     software reference
   • ✓
     #9figura da resposta próxima

     software reference, SE: recorded, not required (the question does not state the convention)
   • ✗
     #10figura da resposta próxima

     published cell: recorded, never required on T2/T3
   • ✗
     #11figura da resposta próxima

     published cell, SE: recorded, never required on T2/T3

Valores esperados e de onde vêm

Verificações

Caminho de referência e caminho do agente

A chamada de referência ao lado da chamada que deu a resposta, argumento por argumento.

Trajetória

Cada evento na ordem em que aconteceu: turnos do modelo, chamadas de ferramentas, guardas, transformações e pontuação.

1. 0Início

   Angrist and Evans (1998), 'Children and Their Parents' Labor Supply', Table 7, column (5): in the 1980 Census sample of married women aged 21-35 with two or more children, estimate by two-stage least squares the effect of having more than 2 children on the mother's weeks worked in 1979, using as the instrument the indicator that the first two children are of the same sex. Include as covariates the mother's age and indicators for a first-born boy, a second-born boy, and Black, Hispanic and other race; the paper also includes the age at first birth, which this file does not have. Report the coefficient on having more than 2 children.

   fertility (agent)

   The 1980 Census sample of Angrist and Evans (1998), 'Children and Their Parents' Labor Supply', as distributed in the R package AER (data set Fertility, served by Rdatasets): married women aged 21-35 with two or more children, one row per woman (254,654 rows). Columns: gender1 and gender2, the sex of the first and the second child ('male' or 'female'); boy1st and boy2nd, 1 if the first (second) child is a boy; samesex, 1 if the first two children are of the same sex (two boys or two girls); morekids, 1 if the mother has more than 2 children; agem1, the mother's age in years; blackm, hispm and othracem, 1 if the mother is Black, Hispanic, or of another race (white is the reference); weeksm1, the number of weeks the mother worked in 1979. The file has no age at first birth.

   file ca9be592b79dddbc2f49ff80f45d0dbe31aac4afb57ff88dec57376c3f3e3452 · frame —

   1. derive {"args":{"column":"morekids","default":null,"keep_unmapped":false,"mapping":[{"source":"yes","target":1},{"source":"no","target":0}]},"name":"morekids","op":"map"}
   2. derive {"args":{"column":"afam","default":null,"keep_unmapped":false,"mapping":[{"source":"yes","target":1},{"source":"no","target":0}]},"name":"blackm","op":"map"}
   3. derive {"args":{"column":"hispanic","default":null,"keep_unmapped":false,"mapping":[{"source":"yes","target":1},{"source":"no","target":0}]},"name":"hispm","op":"map"}
   4. derive {"args":{"column":"other","default":null,"keep_unmapped":false,"mapping":[{"source":"yes","target":1},{"source":"no","target":0}]},"name":"othracem","op":"map"}
   5. derive {"args":{"column":"gender1","default":null,"keep_unmapped":false,"mapping":[{"source":"male","target":1},{"source":"female","target":0}]},"name":"boy1st","op":"map"}
   6. derive {"args":{"column":"gender2","default":null,"keep_unmapped":false,"mapping":[{"source":"male","target":1},{"source":"female","target":0}]},"name":"boy2nd","op":"map"}
   7. derive {"args":{"left":"boy1st","right":"boy2nd"},"name":"sex_gap","op":"diff"}
   8. derive {"args":{"cmp":"eq","column":"sex_gap","value":0},"name":"samesex","op":"indicator"}
   9. rename {"map":{"age":"agem1","work":"weeksm1"}}
   10. select {"columns":["gender1","gender2","boy1st","boy2nd","samesex","morekids","agem1","blackm","hispm","othracem","weeksm1"]}
2. 1Transformação
   fertility · derive {"args":{"column":"morekids","default":null,"keep_unmapped":false,"mapping":[{"source":"yes","target":1},{"source":"no","target":0}]},"name":"morekids","op":"map"}

   254654 → 254654 linhas

   Frame antes → depois: 14e3e85c163d → 5a972366e3e8
3. 2Transformação
   fertility · derive {"args":{"column":"afam","default":null,"keep_unmapped":false,"mapping":[{"source":"yes","target":1},{"source":"no","target":0}]},"name":"blackm","op":"map"}

   254654 → 254654 linhas

   Frame antes → depois: 5a972366e3e8 → 18ccebde6b6d
4. 3Transformação
   fertility · derive {"args":{"column":"hispanic","default":null,"keep_unmapped":false,"mapping":[{"source":"yes","target":1},{"source":"no","target":0}]},"name":"hispm","op":"map"}

   254654 → 254654 linhas

   Frame antes → depois: 18ccebde6b6d → 904f43a67031
5. 4Transformação
   fertility · derive {"args":{"column":"other","default":null,"keep_unmapped":false,"mapping":[{"source":"yes","target":1},{"source":"no","target":0}]},"name":"othracem","op":"map"}

   254654 → 254654 linhas

   Frame antes → depois: 904f43a67031 → 8aaea27cf87b
6. 5Transformação
   fertility · derive {"args":{"column":"gender1","default":null,"keep_unmapped":false,"mapping":[{"source":"male","target":1},{"source":"female","target":0}]},"name":"boy1st","op":"map"}

   254654 → 254654 linhas

   Frame antes → depois: 8aaea27cf87b → 666ccf9c0cdf
7. 6Transformação
   fertility · derive {"args":{"column":"gender2","default":null,"keep_unmapped":false,"mapping":[{"source":"male","target":1},{"source":"female","target":0}]},"name":"boy2nd","op":"map"}

   254654 → 254654 linhas

   Frame antes → depois: 666ccf9c0cdf → b2ccbd1a7c9a
8. 7Transformação
   fertility · derive {"args":{"left":"boy1st","right":"boy2nd"},"name":"sex_gap","op":"diff"}

   254654 → 254654 linhas

   Frame antes → depois: b2ccbd1a7c9a → b25bee20ec5a
9. 8Transformação
   fertility · derive {"args":{"cmp":"eq","column":"sex_gap","value":0},"name":"samesex","op":"indicator"}

   254654 → 254654 linhas

   Frame antes → depois: b25bee20ec5a → 935084af856b
10. 9Transformação
    fertility · rename {"map":{"age":"agem1","work":"weeksm1"}}

    254654 → 254654 linhas

    Frame antes → depois: 935084af856b → ccc82e5f5788
11. 10Transformação
    fertility · select {"columns":["gender1","gender2","boy1st","boy2nd","samesex","morekids","agem1","blackm","hispm","othracem","weeksm1"]}

    254654 → 254654 linhas

    Frame antes → depois: ccc82e5f5788 → c7a28c42496c
12. 11Turno do modelo
    call_17cf55abreferenceFim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache

    Texto visível

    Table 7, column (5): 2SLS of the mother's weeks worked on having more than 2 children, instrumented by the same-sex indicator, with age, boy first, boy second and race indicators (the file has no age at first birth).

    Chamadas pedidas

    • infer.iv_2sls

      {
        "dataset": "fertility",
        "endog": [
          "morekids"
        ],
        "exog": [
          "agem1",
          "boy1st",
          "boy2nd",
          "blackm",
          "hispm",
          "othracem"
        ],
        "instruments": [
          "samesex"
        ],
        "se": "classical",
        "y": "weeksm1"
      }

    Mensagens (formato neutro)Instruções do sistemaFerramentas oferecidas
13. 12Ferramenta
    infer.iv_2sls— Variáveis instrumentais por mínimos quadrados em dois estágios (MQ2E)v0.1.0call_b0f4b4b2decidido pelo modeloreexecutável

    Motivo: Table 7, column (5): 2SLS of the mother's weeks worked on having more than 2 children, instrumented by the same-sex indicator, with age, boy first, boy second and race indicators (the file has no age at first birth).

    Argumentos

    {
      "cluster": null,
      "dataset": "fertility",
      "endog": [
        "morekids"
      ],
      "exog": [
        "agem1",
        "boy1st",
        "boy2nd",
        "blackm",
        "hispm",
        "othracem"
      ],
      "instruments": [
        "samesex"
      ],
      "level": 0.95,
      "se": "classical",
      "subset": null,
      "y": "weeksm1"
    }

    Figuras call_b0f4b4b2

    Chave	Valor	Valor bruto	Erro-padrão	IC
    coef.morekids 2SLS effect of morekids on weeksm1	-5,74641	-5.746409761250555	1,237251.2372527665239512	-8,17139 – -3,32143

    Diagnósticos

    • first_stage_F.morekids = 1.298,941298.942196093575 (Wald F of the excluded instruments in the first stage for morekids (classical (homoskedastic) standard errors))
    • partial_r2.morekids = 0,005075080.0050750844496005865 (share of the variation the instruments explain beyond the controls)
    • weak_instrument = false (every first-stage F is at least 10)
    • n_obs = 254.654254654
    • se_type = "classical" (classical (homoskedastic) standard errors)
    • n_clusters = — (errors not clustered)

    Derivação matemática e pressupostos

    coef.morekids

    1. Com um instrumento e um regressor endógeno, o MQ2E é a razão entre o coeficiente de samesex na forma reduzida (weeksm1 sobre samesex e os controles) e no primeiro estágio (morekids sobre samesex e os controles).β = ρ / π→ -5,74641 (-5.746409761250555)
    2. Erro-padrão clássico (homocedástico): a raiz da variância estimada do coeficiente.ep = √V_jj→ 1,23725 (1.2372527665239512)
    3. Intervalo de 95% de confiança: a estimativa mais ou menos o valor crítico da distribuição t de Student com 254646 graus de liberdade vezes o erro-padrão.IC = β ± c · ep

    Pressupostos do estimador

    • the instruments affect the outcome only through the endogenous regressors (exclusion restriction)
    • the instruments are as good as randomly assigned given the controls
    • errors are independent and have the same variance for every observation

    Tabelas (3)

    {
      "coefficients": [
        {
          "ci_high": -3.894651510371974,
          "ci_low": -5.491977005383414,
          "coef": -4.693314257877694,
          "p": 1.0932058054319445e-30,
          "se": 0.4074865444776059,
          "t": -11.51771591352662,
          "term": "Intercept"
        },
        {
          "ci_high": 0.875148243667443,
          "ci_low": 0.7858626101564906,
          "coef": 0.8305054269119668,
          "p": 2.5050309446894502e-290,
          "se": 0.02277725759996795,
          "t": 36.462046550904155,
          "term": "agem1"
        },
        {
          "ci_high": 0.15518801551433226,
          "ci_low": -0.18002344638465373,
          "coef": -0.012417715435160728,
          "p": 0.8845434780405558,
          "se": 0.08551429292595505,
          "t": -0.14521216290606478,
          "term": "boy1st"
        },
        {
          "ci_high": -0.00032404877909639196,
          "ci_low": -0.3349607069276821,
          "coef": -0.16764237785338926,
          "p": 0.04955794736073631,
          "se": 0.08536765731866344,
          "t": -1.9637692203220218,
          "term": "boy2nd"
        },
        {
          "ci_high": 12.062028946268919,
          "ci_low": 11.166822394341962,
          "coef": 11.61442567030544,
          "p": 0,
          "se": 0.2283721292733859,
          "t": 50.85745667502941,
          "term": "blackm"
        },
        {
          "ci_high": 0.8986363842058386,
          "ci_low": -0.11579272307197519,
          "coef": 0.3914218305669317,
          "p": 0.13040077454447038,
          "se": 0.258786460764015,
          "t": 1.512528242054617,
          "term": "hispm"
        },
        {
          "ci_high": 2.5330211340198474,
          "ci_low": 1.7261705227176998,
          "coef": 2.1295958283687737,
          "p": 4.40078106016244e-25,
          "se": 0.2058320414567736,
          "t": 10.346279487375176,
          "term": "othracem"
        },
        {
          "ci_high": -3.321427372843427,
          "ci_low": -8.171392149657683,
          "coef": -5.746409761250555,
          "p": 0.0000034108531610220233,
          "se": 1.2372527665239512,
          "t": -4.64449134140555,
          "term": "morekids"
        }
      ],
      "first_stage": [
        {
          "ci_high": 0.0722833255575446,
          "ci_low": 0.06482699115994814,
          "coef": 0.06855515835874637,
          "endog": "morekids",
          "instrument": "samesex",
          "p": 1.0026728179589989e-283,
          "se": 0.0019021520332800665,
          "t": 36.040840668519024
        }
      ],
      "reduced_form": [
        {
          "ci_high": -0.2260938175644005,
          "ci_low": -0.5617982447890114,
          "coef": -0.39394603117670596,
          "instrument": "samesex",
          "p": 0.000004226513983905047,
          "se": 0.08564005109967326,
          "t": -4.600020972876427
        }
      ]
    }

    Hashes SHA-256 e metadados de reprodução

    Digests dos dados

    fertility c7a28c42496c51fa4ea223123cad6242aaa393634242d66e383c351dd0f471ef

    sha256 do resultado

    85979bffd55ae499705f92ec835a5c8aaaf7185c732032e32c6ed9d9186719d8

    Resultado mostrado ao modelo
14. 13Turno do modelo
    call_8f9f3140referenceFim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache

    Chamadas pedidas

    • submit_answer (meta-ferramenta)

      {
        "answer": "Estimativa (infer.iv_2sls): coef.morekids = -5,746.",
        "caveats": [],
        "figure_refs": [
          "call_b0f4b4b2:coef.morekids"
        ]
      }

    Mensagens (formato neutro)Instruções do sistemaFerramentas oferecidas
15. 14Guarda
    resposta aceita

    Números encontrados

    -5,746

    Sem lastro

    —

    Não citados

    —

    1 nova(s) tentativa(s) restante(s)
16. 15Resposta

    Estimativa (infer.iv_2sls): coef.morekids = -5,746.

    Figuras citadas: call_b0f4b4b2:coef.morekids · Parada: answered

    Figura da resposta: call_b0f4b4b2:coef.morekids = -5,74641-5.746409761250555 (se 1,237251.2372527665239512)
17. 16Pontuação
    #0resposta com lastropassouobrigatóriaevery number backed
18. 17Pontuação
    #1figura da resposta escolhidapassouobrigatóriaanswer figure call_b0f4b4b2:coef.morekids (infer.iv_2sls)
19. 18Pontuação
    #2ferramenta chamadapassouobrigatóriaanswer call is infer.iv_2sls
20. 19Pontuação
    #3argumento igualpassouobrigatóriainfer.iv_2sls.y = 'weeksm1'
21. 20Pontuação
    #4argumento igualpassouobrigatóriainfer.iv_2sls.endog = ['morekids']
22. 21Pontuação
    #5argumento igualpassouobrigatóriainfer.iv_2sls.instruments = ['samesex']
23. 22Pontuação
    #6argumento igualpassouobrigatóriainfer.iv_2sls.exog = ['agem1', 'boy1st', 'boy2nd', 'blackm', 'hispm', 'othracem']
24. 23Pontuação
    #7diagnósticopassouobrigatória254654 vs 254654
25. 24Pontuação
    #8figura da resposta próximapassouobrigatória-5.746409761 vs -5.746409761252153
26. 25Pontuação
    #9figura da resposta próximapassouregistrada1.237252767 vs 1.2372527665238475
27. 26Pontuação
    #10figura da resposta próximafalhouregistrada-5.746409761 vs -5.4
28. 27Pontuação
    #11figura da resposta próximafalhouregistrada1.237252767 vs 1.2

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Cada tentativa é seu próprio arquivo e é publicada; só a última de cada época é pontuada.

• época 1, tentativa 1passoupontuada(exibindo)

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