Tarefa paper_repro.card_1995.ex15_4_iv.design

Veredito

Pergunta feita ao analista

What is the causal return to a year of schooling for young men in the United States? Using Card's sample of men from the National Longitudinal Survey of Young Men observed in 1976, estimate the effect of education on the log hourly wage, using a source of variation in schooling that is not driven by ability or family background.

Como o agente resolveu e como foi validado

Resumo passo a passo do que o agente executou, por que o caminho está correto e como cada verificação conferiu o resultado.

1. 1Preparação da base de dados
   card— Wooldridge's CARD data set (the R package wooldridge, served by Rdatasets): David Card's (1995) sample of men from the National Longitudinal Survey of Young Men, observed in 1976; one row per man (3,010 rows). Columns used here: lwage, log hourly wage in 1976; educ, years of schooling in 1976; nearc4, 1 if the man grew up near a four-year college in 1966; nearc2, 1 if near a two-year college in 1966; exper, years of experience (age - educ - 6); expersq, exper squared; black, 1 if black; smsa, 1 if living in an SMSA in 1976; south, 1 if living in the South in 1976; smsa66, 1 if living in an SMSA in 1966; reg661 to reg669, indicators of the region of residence in 1966; also age, fatheduc, motheduc, IQ, KWW, married, wage (cents per hour) and the family-background indicators momdad14, sinmom14, step14, south66, libcrd14, enroll, weight, id and rownames.
2. 2Chamada que gerou a resposta finalinfer.iv_2sls(Variáveis instrumentais por mínimos quadrados em dois estágios (MQ2E))citada na respostacoincide com a referência

   Ver chamada call_32eba4df nos detalhes

   Example 15.4, Table 15.1, IV column: log wage on education instrumented by college proximity, with experience, its square, race, SMSA, South, SMSA in 1966 and the 1966 region dummies (classical errors with the degrees-of-freedom adjustment, as the example states).

   Por que este é o caminho de referência: Example 15.4, Table 15.1, IV column: log wage on education instrumented by college proximity, with experience, its square, race, SMSA, South, SMSA in 1966 and the 1966 region dummies (classical errors with the degrees-of-freedom adjustment, as the example states).
   Argumentos principais

   dataset:

   "card"

   endog:

   ["educ"]

   exog:

   ["exper","expersq","black","smsa","south","smsa66","reg662","reg663","reg664","reg665","reg666","reg667","reg668","reg669"]

   instruments:

   ["nearc4"]

   level:

   0,950.95

   se:

   "classical"

   y:

   "lwage"

   Resultado calculado

   • coef.educ = 0,131504 0.13150383624470474
     2SLS effect of educ on lwage
   Diagnósticos: first_stage_F.educ = 13,255813.255785330576108 (Wald F of the excluded instruments in the first stage for educ (classical (homoskedastic) standard errors)) · partial_r2.educ = 0,004407930.004407934102325983 (share of the variation the instruments explain beyond the controls) · weak_instrument = false (every first-stage F is at least 10) · n_obs = 3.0103010 · se_type = "classical" (classical (homoskedastic) standard errors)
3. 3Conferência de lastro e resposta final

   Todos os 1 números escritos na resposta foram conferidos contra as ferramentas e o enunciado (nenhum número sem lastro).

   Números encontrados: 0,1315
   Figuras citadas: call_32eba4df:coef.educ
   • ✓
     #0resposta com lastro

     Garante que todo número citado no texto veio de uma ferramenta ou do enunciado (sem cálculo mental do modelo).
   • ✓
     #1figura da resposta escolhida

     an answer figure: the effect of an estimator call the answer cites
   • ✓
     #2ferramenta chamadainfer.iv_2sls

     Exige que o resultado venha da ferramenta infer.iv_2sls.
   • ✓
     #3argumento igualy

     T3: the outcome the design question implies
   • ✓
     #4argumento igualendog[0]

     T3: the treatment the design question implies
   • ✓
     #5argumento igualy

     outcome: log hourly wage, 1976 (T3: recorded; a design question cannot state it)
   • ✓
     #6argumento igualendog

     the endogenous regressor: years of schooling (T3: recorded; a design question cannot state it)
   • ✓
     #7argumento igualinstruments

     the instrument: near a four-year college in 1966 (T3: recorded; a design question cannot state it)
   • ✓
     #8argumento igualexog

     the example's exogenous controls (T3: recorded; a design question cannot state it)
   • ✓
     #9diagnósticon_obs

     (T3: recorded; a design question cannot state it)
   • ✓
     #10figura da resposta próxima

     software reference (T3: recorded; T3 pontua o desenho; a estimativa é registrada)
   • ✓
     #11figura da resposta próxima

     software reference, SE: recorded (T3)
   • ✓
     #12figura da resposta próxima

     published cell: recorded, never required on T2/T3
   • ✓
     #13figura da resposta próxima

     published cell, SE: recorded, never required on T2/T3

Valores esperados e de onde vêm

Verificações

Caminho de referência e caminho do agente

A chamada de referência ao lado da chamada que deu a resposta, argumento por argumento.

Trajetória

Cada evento na ordem em que aconteceu: turnos do modelo, chamadas de ferramentas, guardas, transformações e pontuação.

1. 0Início

   What is the causal return to a year of schooling for young men in the United States? Using Card's sample of men from the National Longitudinal Survey of Young Men observed in 1976, estimate the effect of education on the log hourly wage, using a source of variation in schooling that is not driven by ability or family background.

   card (agent)

   Wooldridge's CARD data set (the R package wooldridge, served by Rdatasets): David Card's (1995) sample of men from the National Longitudinal Survey of Young Men, observed in 1976; one row per man (3,010 rows). Columns used here: lwage, log hourly wage in 1976; educ, years of schooling in 1976; nearc4, 1 if the man grew up near a four-year college in 1966; nearc2, 1 if near a two-year college in 1966; exper, years of experience (age - educ - 6); expersq, exper squared; black, 1 if black; smsa, 1 if living in an SMSA in 1976; south, 1 if living in the South in 1976; smsa66, 1 if living in an SMSA in 1966; reg661 to reg669, indicators of the region of residence in 1966; also age, fatheduc, motheduc, IQ, KWW, married, wage (cents per hour) and the family-background indicators momdad14, sinmom14, step14, south66, libcrd14, enroll, weight, id and rownames.

   file 326dad817467b20d51bdfd015033e3e3e313931f51f812c38c0776249e7fd711 · frame —
2. 1Turno do modelo
   call_5af1018breferenceFim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache

   Texto visível

   Example 15.4, Table 15.1, IV column: log wage on education instrumented by college proximity, with experience, its square, race, SMSA, South, SMSA in 1966 and the 1966 region dummies (classical errors with the degrees-of-freedom adjustment, as the example states).

   Chamadas pedidas

   • infer.iv_2sls

     {
       "dataset": "card",
       "endog": [
         "educ"
       ],
       "exog": [
         "exper",
         "expersq",
         "black",
         "smsa",
         "south",
         "smsa66",
         "reg662",
         "reg663",
         "reg664",
         "reg665",
         "reg666",
         "reg667",
         "reg668",
         "reg669"
       ],
       "instruments": [
         "nearc4"
       ],
       "se": "classical",
       "y": "lwage"
     }

   Mensagens (formato neutro)Instruções do sistemaFerramentas oferecidas
3. 2Ferramenta
   infer.iv_2sls— Variáveis instrumentais por mínimos quadrados em dois estágios (MQ2E)v0.1.0call_32eba4dfdecidido pelo modeloreexecutável

   Motivo: Example 15.4, Table 15.1, IV column: log wage on education instrumented by college proximity, with experience, its square, race, SMSA, South, SMSA in 1966 and the 1966 region dummies (classical errors with the degrees-of-freedom adjustment, as the example states).

   Argumentos

   {
     "cluster": null,
     "dataset": "card",
     "endog": [
       "educ"
     ],
     "exog": [
       "exper",
       "expersq",
       "black",
       "smsa",
       "south",
       "smsa66",
       "reg662",
       "reg663",
       "reg664",
       "reg665",
       "reg666",
       "reg667",
       "reg668",
       "reg669"
     ],
     "instruments": [
       "nearc4"
     ],
     "level": 0.95,
     "se": "classical",
     "subset": null,
     "y": "lwage"
   }

   Figuras call_32eba4df

   Chave	Valor	Valor bruto	Erro-padrão	IC
   coef.educ 2SLS effect of educ on lwage	0,131504	0.13150383624470474	0,05496370.054963672601175226	0,0237335 – 0,239274

   Diagnósticos

   • first_stage_F.educ = 13,255813.255785330576108 (Wald F of the excluded instruments in the first stage for educ (classical (homoskedastic) standard errors))
   • partial_r2.educ = 0,004407930.004407934102325983 (share of the variation the instruments explain beyond the controls)
   • weak_instrument = false (every first-stage F is at least 10)
   • n_obs = 3.0103010
   • se_type = "classical" (classical (homoskedastic) standard errors)
   • n_clusters = — (errors not clustered)

   Derivação matemática e pressupostos

   coef.educ

   1. Com um instrumento e um regressor endógeno, o MQ2E é a razão entre o coeficiente de nearc4 na forma reduzida (lwage sobre nearc4 e os controles) e no primeiro estágio (educ sobre nearc4 e os controles).β = ρ / π→ 0,131504 (0.13150383624470474)
   2. Erro-padrão clássico (homocedástico): a raiz da variância estimada do coeficiente.ep = √V_jj→ 0,0549637 (0.054963672601175226)
   3. Intervalo de 95% de confiança: a estimativa mais ou menos o valor crítico da distribuição t de Student com 2994 graus de liberdade vezes o erro-padrão.IC = β ± c · ep

   Pressupostos do estimador

   • the instruments affect the outcome only through the endogenous regressors (exclusion restriction)
   • the instruments are as good as randomly assigned given the controls
   • errors are independent and have the same variance for every observation

   Tabelas (3)

   {
     "coefficients": [
       {
         "ci_high": 5.479516553400695,
         "ci_low": 1.8527852634542328,
         "coef": 3.666150908427464,
         "p": 0.00007538415974785308,
         "se": 0.9248295310138733,
         "t": 3.9641369414407985,
         "term": "Intercept"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.1546598064790368,
         "ci_low": 0.06188240572195053,
         "coef": 0.10827110610049366,
         "p": 0.000004922903208547169,
         "se": 0.023658571085405363,
         "t": 4.576400903911081,
         "term": "exper"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": -0.001681030950206941,
         "ci_low": -0.0029888444048044374,
         "coef": -0.002334937677505689,
         "p": 3.1161246944085553e-12,
         "se": 0.00033349713755244625,
         "t": -7.001372469466829,
         "term": "expersq"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": -0.04109124105905192,
         "ci_low": -0.25246025330930105,
         "coef": -0.1467757471841765,
         "p": 0.006504376545512747,
         "se": 0.05389985881009377,
         "t": -2.7231193258096242,
         "term": "black"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.1738897625009303,
         "ci_low": 0.04972685470035713,
         "coef": 0.11180830860064371,
         "p": 0.0004197459454284399,
         "se": 0.03166198833336174,
         "t": 3.5313103972953286,
         "term": "smsa"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": -0.09117299500874089,
         "ci_low": -0.19817000636948712,
         "coef": -0.144671500689114,
         "p": 1.2266258857565786e-7,
         "se": 0.027284622963645526,
         "t": -5.302308955556272,
         "term": "south"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.06090028882943441,
         "ci_low": -0.023838079835042367,
         "coef": 0.01853110449719602,
         "p": 0.39119278809555685,
         "se": 0.021608588970484666,
         "t": 0.8575804983151744,
         "term": "smsa66"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.17466030000544155,
         "ci_low": 0.026875261834297726,
         "coef": 0.10076778091986964,
         "p": 0.007538241795889867,
         "se": 0.0376857165904629,
         "t": 2.6738984962109194,
         "term": "reg662"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.2204423366673024,
         "ci_low": 0.07607522011011421,
         "coef": 0.1482587783887083,
         "p": 0.000057840797772050855,
         "se": 0.03681413427830229,
         "t": 4.027224360837132,
         "term": "reg663"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.13566022759527543,
         "ci_low": -0.035866069886474596,
         "coef": 0.049897078854400416,
         "p": 0.25405688043284264,
         "se": 0.04373982315600082,
         "t": 1.1407700181237441,
         "term": "reg664"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.23855286385627722,
         "ci_low": 0.05399096224877149,
         "coef": 0.14627191305252435,
         "p": 0.001901645058086012,
         "se": 0.04706394912130858,
         "t": 3.107939639223742,
         "term": "reg665"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.2646849853540353,
         "ci_low": 0.06112089839772622,
         "coef": 0.16290294187588075,
         "p": 0.001716385181435308,
         "se": 0.05190957477135003,
         "t": 3.1382060553073585,
         "term": "reg666"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.2314381083788585,
         "ci_low": 0.03770631068276323,
         "coef": 0.13457220953081087,
         "p": 0.006486970827583493,
         "se": 0.04940230562501896,
         "t": 2.72400665977539,
         "term": "reg667"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.03325735213331668,
         "ci_low": -0.1994113382810437,
         "coef": -0.08307699307386351,
         "p": 0.161550835975611,
         "se": 0.05933135339638065,
         "t": -1.4002207655511092,
         "term": "reg668"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.1898006809461838,
         "ci_low": 0.0258277843270978,
         "coef": 0.10781423263664079,
         "p": 0.009971984091442317,
         "se": 0.041813678752432255,
         "t": 2.578444084649437,
         "term": "reg669"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.23927422232576134,
         "ci_low": 0.023733450163648154,
         "coef": 0.13150383624470474,
         "p": 0.016792621890736437,
         "se": 0.054963672601175226,
         "t": 2.392559121711473,
         "term": "educ"
       }
     ],
     "first_stage": [
       {
         "ci_high": 0.4921785043603216,
         "ci_low": 0.147619375822603,
         "coef": 0.3198989400914623,
         "endog": "educ",
         "instrument": "nearc4",
         "p": 0.00027634008572957033,
         "se": 0.08786381779522222,
         "t": 3.640849534185134
       }
     ],
     "reduced_form": [
       {
         "ci_high": 0.07751371396063084,
         "ci_low": 0.006622161704650145,
         "coef": 0.04206793783264049,
         "instrument": "nearc4",
         "p": 0.020027629759561513,
         "se": 0.01807760095364329,
         "t": 2.3270752540957202
       }
     ]
   }

   Hashes SHA-256 e metadados de reprodução

   Digests dos dados

   card 4ec4da8d7939f11a46d67bd248416cc7330bd0dddaddcd6c49c9872c5a427413

   sha256 do resultado

   6265cba433bc72e2fb80a63a587174ec8231b3a31dc3e70a228c8cf886fa6f29

   Resultado mostrado ao modelo
4. 3Turno do modelo
   call_df86acafreferenceFim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache

   Chamadas pedidas

   • submit_answer (meta-ferramenta)

     {
       "answer": "Estimativa (infer.iv_2sls): coef.educ = 0,1315.",
       "caveats": [],
       "figure_refs": [
         "call_32eba4df:coef.educ"
       ]
     }

   Mensagens (formato neutro)Instruções do sistemaFerramentas oferecidas
5. 4Guarda
   resposta aceita

   Números encontrados

   0,1315

   Sem lastro

   —

   Não citados

   —

   1 nova(s) tentativa(s) restante(s)
6. 5Resposta

   Estimativa (infer.iv_2sls): coef.educ = 0,1315.

   Figuras citadas: call_32eba4df:coef.educ · Parada: answered

   Figura da resposta: call_32eba4df:coef.educ = 0,1315040.13150383624470474 (se 0,05496370.054963672601175226)
7. 6Pontuação
   #0resposta com lastropassouobrigatóriaevery number backed
8. 7Pontuação
   #1figura da resposta escolhidapassouobrigatóriaanswer figure call_32eba4df:coef.educ (infer.iv_2sls)
9. 8Pontuação
   #2ferramenta chamadapassouobrigatóriaanswer call is infer.iv_2sls
10. 9Pontuação
    #3argumento igualpassouobrigatóriainfer.iv_2sls.y = 'lwage'
11. 10Pontuação
    #4argumento igualpassouobrigatóriainfer.iv_2sls.endog[0] = 'educ'
12. 11Pontuação
    #5argumento igualpassouregistradainfer.iv_2sls.y = 'lwage'
13. 12Pontuação
    #6argumento igualpassouregistradainfer.iv_2sls.endog = ['educ']
14. 13Pontuação
    #7argumento igualpassouregistradainfer.iv_2sls.instruments = ['nearc4']
15. 14Pontuação
    #8argumento igualpassouregistradainfer.iv_2sls.exog = ['exper', 'expersq', 'black', 'smsa', 'south', 'smsa66', 'reg662', 'reg663', 'reg664', 'reg665', 'reg666', 'reg667', 'reg668', 'reg669']
16. 15Pontuação
    #9diagnósticopassouregistrada3010 vs 3010
17. 16Pontuação
    #10figura da resposta próximapassouregistrada0.1315038362 vs 0.13150383624451933
18. 17Pontuação
    #11figura da resposta próximapassouregistrada0.0549636726 vs 0.054963672601153514
19. 18Pontuação
    #12figura da resposta próximapassouregistrada0.1315038362 vs 0.132
20. 19Pontuação
    #13figura da resposta próximapassouregistrada0.0549636726 vs 0.055

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• época 1, tentativa 1passoupontuada(exibindo)

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