Tarefa paper_repro.fujiwara_2015.tab2_pa_valid98_c2.tool

Veredito

Pergunta feita ao analista

Tarefa de ferramenta: nenhuma pergunta; a especificação de referência é chamada direto.

Como o agente resolveu e como foi validado

Resumo passo a passo do que o agente executou, por que o caminho está correto e como cada verificação conferiu o resultado.

1. 1Preparação da base de dados
   munic— The author's municipality file for Fujiwara (2015), 'Voting Technology, Political Responsiveness, and Infant Health: Evidence from Brazil': one row per Brazilian municipality (5,281 rows). In the 1998 elections, municipalities with more than 40,500 registered voters in 1996 used electronic voting and the others paper ballots; in 1994 every municipality used paper ballots and in 2002 every one voted electronically. Columns: uf, state; voters96, number of registered voters in 1996; r_util98, r_util94, r_util02, valid votes as a share of turnout in the state legislature elections of 1998, 1994 and 2002; attend, turnout as a share of registered voters (1998); regist, registered voters as a share of population (1998); null_est_share and blank_est_share, null and blank votes as a share of turnout (state legislature, 1998); util_pres_share, util_gov_share, util_fed_share, util_sen_share, valid votes as a share of turnout in the presidential, gubernatorial, federal lower chamber and senate elections (1998); right, vote-weighted party ideology; right_meas, votes for parties with measured ideology over total valid votes; right_state, state average of right; illiter, illiteracy rate (percent); less4 and less8, shares without 4 and without 8 years of schooling; gini, Gini index; income, monthly income; latitude; longitude; urbanization, share of urban population; population91 and population00, population in 1991 and 2000 (thousands). The schooling, income, inequality and urbanization variables come from the 1991 census.
2. 2Chamada que gerou a resposta finalinfer.rdd(Regressão descontínua (RDD))citada na respostacoincide com a referência

   Ver chamada call_d3a586a7 nos detalhes
   Argumentos principais

   bandwidth:

   10.00010000

   cutoff:

   40.50040500

   dataset:

   "munic"

   kernel:

   "uniform"

   level:

   0,950.95

   polynomial:

   11

   running:

   "voters96"

   y:

   "r_util98"

   Resultado calculado

   • effect = 0,121282 0.12128157455040935
     Jump in r_util98 at the cutoff of voters96
   Diagnósticos: bandwidth = 10.00010000 (half-width of the window around the cutoff (informada)) · bandwidth_method = "user" · n_left = 151151 (observations with positive weight below the cutoff) · n_right = 7878 (observations with positive weight at or above the cutoff) · kernel = "uniform" · polynomial = 11 · bandwidth_sensitive = false (the estimates at half and double the bandwidth fall inside the main interval) · n_obs = 5.2815281 (rows used to choose the bandwidth) · se_type = "HC1" (heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors (HC1))
3. 3Conferência de lastro e resposta final
   • ✓
     #0figura próximaeffect

     software reference
   • ✓
     #1figura próximaeffect

     software reference, SE
   • ✓
     #2figura próximaeffect

     published cell
   • ✓
     #3figura próximaeffect

     published cell, SE

Valores esperados e de onde vêm

Verificações

Caminho de referência e caminho do agente

A chamada de referência ao lado da chamada que deu a resposta, argumento por argumento.

Trajetória

Cada evento na ordem em que aconteceu: turnos do modelo, chamadas de ferramentas, guardas, transformações e pontuação.

1. 0Início

   Tarefa de ferramenta: nenhuma pergunta; a especificação de referência é chamada direto.

   munic (agent)

   The author's municipality file for Fujiwara (2015), 'Voting Technology, Political Responsiveness, and Infant Health: Evidence from Brazil': one row per Brazilian municipality (5,281 rows). In the 1998 elections, municipalities with more than 40,500 registered voters in 1996 used electronic voting and the others paper ballots; in 1994 every municipality used paper ballots and in 2002 every one voted electronically. Columns: uf, state; voters96, number of registered voters in 1996; r_util98, r_util94, r_util02, valid votes as a share of turnout in the state legislature elections of 1998, 1994 and 2002; attend, turnout as a share of registered voters (1998); regist, registered voters as a share of population (1998); null_est_share and blank_est_share, null and blank votes as a share of turnout (state legislature, 1998); util_pres_share, util_gov_share, util_fed_share, util_sen_share, valid votes as a share of turnout in the presidential, gubernatorial, federal lower chamber and senate elections (1998); right, vote-weighted party ideology; right_meas, votes for parties with measured ideology over total valid votes; right_state, state average of right; illiter, illiteracy rate (percent); less4 and less8, shares without 4 and without 8 years of schooling; gini, Gini index; income, monthly income; latitude; longitude; urbanization, share of urban population; population91 and population00, population in 1991 and 2000 (thousands). The schooling, income, inequality and urbanization variables come from the 1991 census.

   file 5cd5b8796355e025807dc303263b1fbb16f442c3c7551f14ee3557768a310894 · frame —
2. 1Ferramenta
   infer.rdd— Regressão descontínua (RDD)v0.1.0call_d3a586a7decidido pelo códigoreexecutável

   Argumentos

   {
     "bandwidth": 10000,
     "cluster": null,
     "cutoff": 40500,
     "dataset": "munic",
     "kernel": "uniform",
     "level": 0.95,
     "polynomial": 1,
     "running": "voters96",
     "subset": null,
     "y": "r_util98"
   }

   Figuras call_d3a586a7

   Chave	Valor	Valor bruto	Erro-padrão	IC
   effect Jump in r_util98 at the cutoff of voters96	0,121282	0.12128157455040935	0,01597280.015972820289750132	0,0899754 – 0,152588

   Diagnósticos

   • bandwidth = 10.00010000 (half-width of the window around the cutoff (informada))
   • bandwidth_method = "user"
   • n_left = 151151 (observations with positive weight below the cutoff)
   • n_right = 7878 (observations with positive weight at or above the cutoff)
   • kernel = "uniform"
   • polynomial = 11
   • bandwidth_sensitive = false (the estimates at half and double the bandwidth fall inside the main interval)
   • n_obs = 5.2815281 (rows used to choose the bandwidth)
   • se_type = "HC1" (heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors (HC1))

   Derivação matemática e pressupostos

   effect

   1. Ajuste linear ponderado (kernel uniforme) de cada lado do limiar, com janela h (informada); o efeito é a diferença entre os dois ajustes no limiar.→ 0,121282 (0.12128157455040935)
   2. Erro-padrão robusto à heterocedasticidade (HC1): a raiz da variância estimada do coeficiente.ep = √V_jj→ 0,0159728 (0.015972820289750132)
   3. Intervalo de 95% de confiança: a estimativa mais ou menos o valor crítico da distribuição normal vezes o erro-padrão.IC = τ ± c · ep

   Pressupostos do estimador

   • units cannot precisely control the running variable around the cutoff
   • every other determinant of the outcome is continuous at the cutoff

   Tabelas (1)

   {
     "sensitivity": [
       {
         "bandwidth": 5000,
         "ci_high": 0.1730692435662713,
         "ci_low": 0.07411927604798471,
         "estimate": 0.123594259807128,
         "multiplier": 0.5,
         "n_left": 75,
         "n_right": 41,
         "se": 0.02524280249504361
       },
       {
         "bandwidth": 10000,
         "ci_high": 0.15258772704985024,
         "ci_low": 0.08997542205096845,
         "estimate": 0.12128157455040935,
         "multiplier": 1,
         "n_left": 151,
         "n_right": 78,
         "se": 0.015972820289750132
       },
       {
         "bandwidth": 20000,
         "ci_high": 0.15000295828723778,
         "ci_low": 0.10603984912383449,
         "estimate": 0.12802140370553614,
         "multiplier": 2,
         "n_left": 428,
         "n_right": 130,
         "se": 0.011215284951707961
       }
     ]
   }

   Hashes SHA-256 e metadados de reprodução

   Digests dos dados

   munic 4849fb53b02d5e1e529b6e802d6e90e871843cf5f89da8ad229cd022bbd01f2e

   sha256 do resultado

   56b4b5a7f676b17996780ab7272eac39105d8c625818894710b69cc5463c0b35

3. 2Pontuação
   #0figura próximapassouobrigatória0.1212815746 vs 0.12128157455034086
4. 3Pontuação
   #1figura próximapassouobrigatória0.01597282029 vs 0.01597282028974219
5. 4Pontuação
   #2figura próximapassouobrigatória0.1212815746 vs 0.121
6. 5Pontuação
   #3figura próximapassouobrigatória0.01597282029 vs 0.016

Épocas × verificações

Tentativas

Cada tentativa é seu próprio arquivo e é publicada; só a última de cada época é pontuada.

• época 1, tentativa 1passoupontuada(exibindo)

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