Tarefa paper_repro.goodman_bacon_2021.fig5_dd.design
paper_reproagentT3designépoca 1, tentativa 1Execução: 20261015T165911Z-suite-paper_repro-baseline-8b4f85Veredito
no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call-3.0799257655399144Pergunta feita ao analista
Did the unilateral (no-fault) divorce laws that U.S. states adopted at different times reduce female suicide? Using the state panel for 1964-1996, estimate the effect of unilateral divorce on the age-adjusted female suicide rate.
Pelas regras deste roteador não identifiquei um desenho que responda à pergunta; nenhuma estimativa foi feita.
Como o agente resolveu e como foi validado
Resumo passo a passo do que o agente executou, por que o caminho está correto e como cada verificação conferiu o resultado.
- 1Preparação da base de dados
bacon_example— The state-year panel Goodman-Bacon (2021), 'Difference-in-Differences with Variation in Treatment Timing', uses to replicate Stevenson and Wolfers (2006) on unilateral (no-fault) divorce and female suicide: one row per U.S. state and year, 1964-1996 (1,617 rows: 49 states, 33 years). Columns: stfips, the state's FIPS code; year; _nfd, the year the state adopted unilateral (no-fault) divorce, for the 36 states that adopted it between 1969 and 1985 (missing for the states that adopted it before 1964 and for those that never adopted it in the window); post, the unilateral-divorce indicator: 1 in the years in which the state had unilateral divorce (from _nfd on, and in every year for the states that adopted it before 1964) and 0 otherwise; asmrs, the age-adjusted suicide mortality of women (suicides per million women); pcinc, personal income per capita (BEA); asmrh, the age-adjusted homicide mortality of women; cases, AFDC (welfare) cases; weight, a population weight; copop, the state's population. - 2Conferência de lastro e resposta final
Todos os 0 números escritos na resposta foram conferidos contra as ferramentas e o enunciado (nenhum número sem lastro).
- #0resposta com lastroGarante que todo número citado no texto veio de uma ferramenta ou do enunciado (sem cálculo mental do modelo).
- #1figura da resposta escolhidaan answer figure: the effect of an estimator call the answer cites
- #2uma entreacceptable tools: the reference tool and its alternatives
- #3argumento igual
yT3: the outcome the design question implies - #4argumento igual
x[0]T3: the treatment the design question implies - #5argumento igual
yT3: the outcome the design question implies - #6argumento igual
treatT3: the treatment the design question implies - #7argumento igual
youtcome: age-adjusted female suicide rate (T3: recorded; a design question cannot state it) - #8argumento igual
xthe unilateral-divorce indicator (T3: recorded; a design question cannot state it) - #9argumento igual
weightsthe specification does not weight by population (T3: recorded; a design question cannot state it) - #10diagnóstico
n_obs(T3: recorded; a design question cannot state it) - #11figura da resposta próximasoftware reference (T3: recorded; T3 pontua o desenho; a estimativa é registrada)
- #12figura da resposta próximasoftware reference, SE: recorded (T3)
- #13figura da resposta próximapublished cell: recorded, never required on T2/T3
- #14figura da resposta próximapublished cell, SE: recorded, never required on T2/T3
Aprofundamento técnico para especialistas
Acesso direto às fontes primárias, tabela formal de verificações, comparação de argumentos, trajetória completa com prompts brutos e somas SHA-256.
Valores esperados e de onde vêm
goodman_bacon_2021.fig5_dd.software
- Fonte
- statsmodels 0.15.0: the reference specification of goodman_bacon_2021 fig5_dd (infer.ols, figure 'coef.post') on an independent code path
- Tipo
- software
- Localização
- goodman_bacon_2021: NBER Working Paper 25018, Figure 5 (event-study and difference-in-differences estimates of the effect of no-fault divorce on female suicide), the printed 'DD Coefficient'
- Valor
- -3,07993
-3.0799257655399144(se 1,26771.267704945311894) - Conferido por
- execução de software · sm.OLS(asmrs, add_constant(['post']), fe dummies ['stfips', 'year']; 82 independent columns).fit(cov_type='HC1') on bacon_example (the file pinned at sha256 5a555448e605f75603160be20f56ca343600ec81863f3060994bac1285c29094); n_obs = 1617. The tool infer.ols (magi_infer, numpy) does not call statsmodels. Written by scripts/paper_repro_reference.py.
- Implementação
- independente da ferramenta
- Endereço
https://pypi.org/project/statsmodels/0.15.0/
- #11 figura da resposta próxima: -3,07993
-3.0799257655399144· relativa 0.000001 · absoluta 0.000001267704945311894 - #12 figura da resposta próxima: 1,2677
1.267704945311894· relativa 0.000001 · absoluta 0.000001267704945311894
goodman_bacon_2021.fig5_dd.paper
- Fonte
- Goodman-Bacon, A. (2021). Difference-in-Differences with Variation in Treatment Timing. Journal of Econometrics 225(2): 254-277. Cell read from the NBER Working Paper 25018 (revised September 2018).
- Tipo
- paper
- Localização
- NBER Working Paper 25018, Figure 5 (event-study and difference-in-differences estimates of the effect of no-fault divorce on female suicide: replication of Stevenson and Wolfers 2006), the printed DD coefficient
- Página
- 35
- Trecho
DD Coefficient = -3.08 (s.e. = 1.27)
- Valor como publicado
-3.08- Erro-padrão como publicado
1.27- Valor
- -3,08
-3.08(se 1,271.27) suicides per million women - Conferido por
- fonte primária · Read on 2026-10-15 from the NBER Working Paper 25018 PDF (48 pages, created 2018-09-06) with pdftotext -layout and from the page image rendered at 80 dpi: Figure 5 is on PDF page 37 (printed page 35). Its notes say the specification has no other controls, does not weight by population, and that standard errors are robust to heteroskedasticity. The text of section 4 (PDF page 22) states the same coefficient with 's.e. = 1.13'; the figure, whose note states the SE convention, is the cell used, and the working paper's Table 2 column (1) also prints [1.27]. The text's 1.13 matches no standard convention on this file (classical 1.11, HC2 1.27, HC3 1.30, clustered by state 2.49; B-join review). Which SE the Journal of Econometrics version prints is unverified. The published Journal of Econometrics version could not be read without a subscription. Data facts checked before any estimate: bacon_example.dta has 1,617 state-year rows (49 states, 1964-1996) with no missing outcome or reform indicator.
- sha256 da cópia lida
4f877146cba18f2d19781e2e5ea0be9275d698ef1295f166f7d1778bfc1e17fc(identifica a cópia lida, não um arquivo canônico)- Endereço
https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w25018/w25018.pdf- Licença
- NBER working paper, copyright the author; cited, not reproduced.
- #13 figura da resposta próxima: -3,08
-3.08· published_cell d=2 · absoluta 0.00500000308 - #14 figura da resposta próxima: 1,27
1.27· published_cell d=2 (the SE as printed) · absoluta 0.00500000127
Especificação técnica do gabarito
Goodman-Bacon, A. (2021). Difference-in-Differences with Variation in Treatment Timing. Journal of Econometrics 225(2): 254-277. Cell read from the NBER Working Paper 25018 (revised September 2018). NBER Working Paper 25018, Figure 5 (event-study and difference-in-differences estimates of the effect of no-fault divorce on female suicide), the printed 'DD Coefficient' (source goodman_bacon_2021.fig5_dd.paper); software reference goodman_bacon_2021.fig5_dd.software: statsmodels 0.15.0: the reference specification of goodman_bacon_2021 fig5_dd (infer.ols, figure 'coef.post') on an independent code path
Verificações
| # | Verificação | Obrigatória | Resultado | Esperado | Observado | Tolerância | Fonte | Chamada |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | resposta com lastro Garante que todo número citado no texto veio de uma ferramenta ou do enunciado (sem cálculo mental do modelo). every number backed | obrigatória | passou | 0 sem lastro | 0 sem lastro[] | — | — | — |
| 1 | figura da resposta escolhida an answer figure: the effect of an estimator call the answer cites no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call | obrigatória | falhou | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2 | uma entre acceptable tools: the reference tool and its alternatives tool_called(infer.ols): no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call | tool_called(infer.twfe): no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call | obrigatória | falhou | [{"abs_tol":null,"bind":"answer_call","column":null,"failure_class":null,"field":"value","interval":false,"key":null,"kind":"tool_called","min_lre":null,"note":"","open_interval":false,"rel_tol":null,"required":true,"source_id":null,"table":null,"tool":"infer.ols","value":null,"weight":1,"where":null},{"abs_tol":null,"bind":"answer_call","column":null,"failure_class":null,"field":"value","interval":false,"key":null,"kind":"tool_called","min_lre":null,"note":"","open_interval":false,"rel_tol":null,"required":true,"source_id":null,"table":null,"tool":"infer.twfe","value":null,"weight":1,"where":null}] | — | — | — | — |
| 3 | argumento igual yT3: the outcome the design question implies no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call | obrigatória | falhou | "asmrs" | — | — | — | — |
| 4 | argumento igual x[0]T3: the treatment the design question implies no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call | obrigatória | falhou | "post" | — | — | — | — |
| 5 | argumento igual yT3: the outcome the design question implies no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call | obrigatória | falhou | "asmrs" | — | — | — | — |
| 6 | argumento igual treatT3: the treatment the design question implies no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call | obrigatória | falhou | "post" | — | — | — | — |
| 7 | argumento igual youtcome: age-adjusted female suicide rate (T3: recorded; a design question cannot state it) no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call | registrada | falhou | "asmrs" | — | — | — | — |
| 8 | argumento igual xthe unilateral-divorce indicator (T3: recorded; a design question cannot state it) no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call | registrada | falhou | ["post"] | — | — | — | — |
| 9 | argumento igual weightsthe specification does not weight by population (T3: recorded; a design question cannot state it) no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call | registrada | falhou | — | — | — | — | — |
| 10 | diagnóstico n_obs(T3: recorded; a design question cannot state it) no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call | registrada | falhou | 1.6171617 | — | default rel 1e-6 (abs floor 1e-6) | — | — |
| 11 | figura da resposta próxima software reference (T3: recorded; T3 pontua o desenho; a estimativa é registrada) no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call | registrada | falhou | -3,07993-3.0799257655399144 | — | relativa 0.000001 · absoluta 0.000001267704945311894 | goodman_bacon_2021.fig5_dd.software | — |
| 12 | figura da resposta próxima software reference, SE: recorded (T3) no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call | registrada | falhou | 1,26771.267704945311894 | — | relativa 0.000001 · absoluta 0.000001267704945311894 | goodman_bacon_2021.fig5_dd.software | — |
| 13 | figura da resposta próxima published cell: recorded, never required on T2/T3 no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call | registrada | falhou | -3,08-3.08 | — | published_cell d=2 · absoluta 0.00500000308 | goodman_bacon_2021.fig5_dd.paper | — |
| 14 | figura da resposta próxima published cell, SE: recorded, never required on T2/T3 no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call | registrada | falhou | 1,271.27 | — | published_cell d=2 (the SE as printed) · absoluta 0.00500000127 | goodman_bacon_2021.fig5_dd.paper | — |
Caminho de referência e caminho do agente
A chamada de referência ao lado da chamada que deu a resposta, argumento por argumento.
a tarefa T1 do mesmo alvo (paper_repro.goodman_bacon_2021.fig5_dd.tool)
Trajetória
Cada evento na ordem em que aconteceu: turnos do modelo, chamadas de ferramentas, guardas, transformações e pontuação.
- 0Início
Did the unilateral (no-fault) divorce laws that U.S. states adopted at different times reduce female suicide? Using the state panel for 1964-1996, estimate the effect of unilateral divorce on the age-adjusted female suicide rate.
bacon_example(agent)The state-year panel Goodman-Bacon (2021), 'Difference-in-Differences with Variation in Treatment Timing', uses to replicate Stevenson and Wolfers (2006) on unilateral (no-fault) divorce and female suicide: one row per U.S. state and year, 1964-1996 (1,617 rows: 49 states, 33 years). Columns: stfips, the state's FIPS code; year; _nfd, the year the state adopted unilateral (no-fault) divorce, for the 36 states that adopted it between 1969 and 1985 (missing for the states that adopted it before 1964 and for those that never adopted it in the window); post, the unilateral-divorce indicator: 1 in the years in which the state had unilateral divorce (from _nfd on, and in every year for the states that adopted it before 1964) and 0 otherwise; asmrs, the age-adjusted suicide mortality of women (suicides per million women); pcinc, personal income per capita (BEA); asmrh, the age-adjusted homicide mortality of women; cases, AFDC (welfare) cases; weight, a population weight; copop, the state's population.
file5a555448e605f75603160be20f56ca343600ec81863f3060994bac1285c29094· frame — - 1Turno do modelo
call_3a84aa39rules-1Fim:tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cacheChamadas pedidassubmit_answer(meta-ferramenta){ "answer": "Pelas regras deste roteador não identifiquei um desenho que responda à pergunta; nenhuma estimativa foi feita.", "caveats": [], "figure_refs": [] }
- 2Guardaresposta aceita
- Números encontrados
- —
- Sem lastro
- —
- Não citados
- —
1 nova(s) tentativa(s) restante(s) - 3Resposta
Pelas regras deste roteador não identifiquei um desenho que responda à pergunta; nenhuma estimativa foi feita.
Figuras citadas:—· Parada:answered - 4Pontuação#0resposta com lastropassouobrigatória
every number backed - 5Pontuação#1figura da resposta escolhidafalhouobrigatória
no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call - 6Pontuação#2uma entrefalhouobrigatória
tool_called(infer.ols): no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call | tool_called(infer.twfe): no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call - 7Pontuação#3argumento igualfalhouobrigatória
no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call - 8Pontuação#4argumento igualfalhouobrigatória
no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call - 9Pontuação#5argumento igualfalhouobrigatória
no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call - 10Pontuação#6argumento igualfalhouobrigatória
no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call - 11Pontuação#7argumento igualfalhouregistrada
no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call - 12Pontuação#8argumento igualfalhouregistrada
no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call - 13Pontuação#9argumento igualfalhouregistrada
no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call - 14Pontuação#10diagnósticofalhouregistrada
no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call - 15Pontuação#11figura da resposta próximafalhouregistrada
no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call - 16Pontuação#12figura da resposta próximafalhouregistrada
no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call - 17Pontuação#13figura da resposta próximafalhouregistrada
no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call - 18Pontuação#14figura da resposta próximafalhouregistrada
no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call
Épocas × verificações
| # | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Época 1 | passou | falhou | falhou | falhou | falhou | falhou | falhou | falhou | falhou | falhou | falhou | falhou | falhou | falhou | falhou |
Tentativas
Cada tentativa é seu próprio arquivo e é publicada; só a última de cada época é pontuada.
- época 1, tentativa 1falhoupontuada(exibindo)
Downloads desta tarefa
d5402f36bf64e75a267881a8635781cec13e95adc55a225aea2d1fe19529e8a9O hash de um zip é só de transporte: o que ancora a integridade é o RUN_SHA256SUMS que vai dentro dele, cópia exata do SHA256SUMS da execução.
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|---|---|---|
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| sources/goodman_bacon_2021.fig5_dd.paper.json | 2,2 KB | 45f59ec4bd4dceafe96878072bd961544902e60d8a8fdd5c7a7a699ef384f7a6 |
| sources/goodman_bacon_2021.fig5_dd.software.json | 1,3 KB | 21818b3b4a8c993abd7208f9e0dd260e7b5f9d8695da488b887d3539c1b9119c |
| specs/paper_repro.goodman_bacon_2021.fig5_dd.design.json | 10,9 KB | 866381e3116160b6ecd1423b091d5156718a689ca51513ce93b9400ff0f97eba |
| traces/paper_repro.goodman_bacon_2021.fig5_dd.design.e1.a1.jsonl | 7,2 KB | 4143e3f6273a9e4889246a14c187430b4a4bde390ce3caa9b6ec161fbc54f74b |
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