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Tarefa crb_papers.q001

crb_papersagentT2publicépoca 1, tentativa 1Execução: 20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5

Veredito

passouPassou em todas as verificações obrigatórias.

Família do método (das chamadas de ferramentas): Regressão linear por mínimos quadrados ordinários (MQO) · infer.ols (did · OLS on the interaction of a group indicator and a period indicator (2x2 difference in differences))

Calculado pelo agente
coef.interaction =-0,0834813-0.0834813334522015
Coefficient on interaction in the regression of y
via infer.ols (call_31d40207)
Valor esperado (gabarito)
coef.interaction =[-0.9011559907613045,0.7341933238568388]
Como foi validado
2 de 2 verificações obrigatórias aprovadas
interval · [-0.9011559907613045, 0.7341933238568388]

Pergunta feita ao analista

For countries that newly experienced at least one fatal armed conflict in 2000-2002, how did the log of annual non-fuel mineral exploration investment change relative to countries that remained conflict-free in both 1997-1999 and 2000-2002?

Resposta

Estimativa (infer.ols): coef.interaction = -0,08348. Reference path transcribed from the item's own estimation script.

Como o agente resolveu e como foi validado

Resumo passo a passo do que o agente executou, por que o caminho está correto e como cada verificação conferiu o resultado.

  1. 1Preparação da base de dados
    ds_0001— | Variable Name | Description | | --- | --- | | dv | Natural log of total annual exploration spending on non‑fuel minerals (USD, constant 1997) plus one, aggregated to the country–year. Figures come from SNL Metals & Mining’s compilation of company surveys and reports and cover activities such as drilling, geophysics, sampling, assaying, and feasibility studies for metals and minerals (e.g., copper, gold, diamonds, iron ore, silver, uranium). Values are deflated to 1997 dollars and summed across firms within each country and year; the log(+1) form preserves observations with zero reported spending. | | ucdp_lead | Indicator equal to 1 if the UCDP Georeferenced Event Dataset records at least one fatal armed conflict event within the country in the current calendar year or the previous year; 0 otherwise. UCDP defines events as organized use of armed force resulting in at least one direct death and classifies state‑based, one‑sided, and non‑state violence. | | country | Country or territory corresponding to the observation. The panel spans a broad global sample (about 177 countries). | | year | Calendar year of the observation (1997–2014). Stored numerically; represents the Gregorian year. | Dataset Context: This global panel links country–year exploration budgets in the mining sector with standardized information on the presence of armed conflict. Exploration spending is compiled by SNL Metals & Mining from company surveys and public financial reports, then aggregated from firm-level entries to the country–year level. The series covers commercially oriented exploration for non‑fuel minerals—such as base and precious metals, diamonds, iron ore, rare earths, and uranium—and excludes hydrocarbons. Expenditures typically encompass early‑stage and appraisal activities (e.g., drilling campaigns, geophysical surveys, sampling and assaying, scoping and feasibility studies). SNL’s process captures the vast majority of global nonferrous exploration outlays and excludes very small projects below common reporting thresholds; amounts are converted to constant 1997 USD to remove the effects of inflation. Because many country–years legitimately report zero exploration, the spending measure is stored as ln(expenditure + 1). Conflict information is sourced from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program’s georeferenced event data, which catalogs individual incidents where organized actors use armed force resulting in at least one direct fatality. Events include state‑based battles, one‑sided violence against civilians, and non‑state clashes. For each country–year, the dataset flags whether any fatal incident occurred in that year or the year immediately prior, capturing near‑term conflict conditions that overlap with annual financial reporting cycles. The 1997–2014 window spans substantial swings in global metals prices and investment appetites, including the mid‑2000s commodity upcycle and subsequent downturn, and includes both “junior” and “major” mining companies whose exploration budgets respond to financing conditions and market sentiment. The resulting dataset provides harmonized, inflation‑adjusted coverage of exploration activity across roughly 177 countries aligned with a consistent, event‑based record of armed conflict incidence.
    ref_panel
    ref_post
    ref_pre
    Transformação "select" aplicada à base "ref_pre" (3186 → 3186 linhas). {"columns":["country","year","dv","ucdp_lead"]}
    Transformação "dropna" aplicada à base "ref_pre" (3186 → 3186 linhas). {"columns":["country","year","dv","ucdp_lead"]}
    Transformação "derive" aplicada à base "ref_pre" (3186 → 3186 linhas). {"args":{"cmp":"gt","column":"ucdp_lead","value":0},"name":"ucdp_lead","op":"indicator"}
    Transformação "filter" aplicada à base "ref_pre" (3186 → 531 linhas). {"query":"year in [1997, 1998, 1999]"}
    Transformação "collapse" aplicada à base "ref_pre" (531 → 177 linhas). {"aggs":[{"column":"dv","fn":"mean","name":"y0"},{"column":"ucdp_lead","fn":"mean","name":"d_pre"}],"by":["country"]}
    Transformação "select" aplicada à base "ref_post" (3186 → 3186 linhas). {"columns":["country","year","dv","ucdp_lead"]}
    Transformação "dropna" aplicada à base "ref_post" (3186 → 3186 linhas). {"columns":["country","year","dv","ucdp_lead"]}
    Transformação "derive" aplicada à base "ref_post" (3186 → 3186 linhas). {"args":{"cmp":"gt","column":"ucdp_lead","value":0},"name":"ucdp_lead","op":"indicator"}
    Transformação "filter" aplicada à base "ref_post" (3186 → 531 linhas). {"query":"year in [2000, 2001, 2002]"}
    Transformação "collapse" aplicada à base "ref_post" (531 → 177 linhas). {"aggs":[{"column":"dv","fn":"mean","name":"y1"},{"column":"ucdp_lead","fn":"mean","name":"d_post"}],"by":["country"]}
    Transformação "select" aplicada à base "ref_panel" (3186 → 3186 linhas). {"columns":["country","year","dv","ucdp_lead"]}
    Transformação "dropna" aplicada à base "ref_panel" (3186 → 3186 linhas). {"columns":["country","year","dv","ucdp_lead"]}
    Transformação "derive" aplicada à base "ref_panel" (3186 → 3186 linhas). {"args":{"cmp":"gt","column":"ucdp_lead","value":0},"name":"ucdp_lead","op":"indicator"}
    Transformação "filter" aplicada à base "ref_panel" (3186 → 1062 linhas). {"query":"year in [1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002]"}
    Transformação "collapse" aplicada à base "ref_panel" (1062 → 177 linhas). {"aggs":[{"column":"dv","fn":"count","name":"n"}],"by":["country"]}
    Transformação "select" aplicada à base "ref_panel" (177 → 177 linhas). {"columns":["country"]}
    Transformação "merge" aplicada à base "ref_panel" (177 → 177 linhas). {"how":"inner","on":["country"],"with":"ref_pre"}
    Transformação "merge" aplicada à base "ref_panel" (177 → 177 linhas). {"how":"inner","on":["country"],"with":"ref_post"}
    Transformação "filter" aplicada à base "ref_panel" (177 → 107 linhas). {"query":"d_pre == 0 and (d_post > 0 or d_post == 0)"}
    Transformação "derive" aplicada à base "ref_panel" (107 → 107 linhas). {"args":{"cmp":"gt","column":"d_post","value":0},"name":"treated","op":"indicator"}
    Transformação "reshape_long" aplicada à base "ref_panel" (107 → 214 linhas). {"id":["country"],"j":"post","stubs":["y"]}
    Transformação "derive" aplicada à base "ref_panel" (214 → 214 linhas). {"args":{"columns":["treated","post"]},"name":"interaction","op":"interaction"}
  2. 2Chamada que gerou a resposta finalinfer.ols(Regressão linear por mínimos quadrados ordinários (MQO))citada na respostacoincide com a referência
    Ver chamada call_31d40207 nos detalhes

    sm.OLS(y ~ const + treated + post + interaction), cov_type='cluster' by country

    Por que este é o caminho de referência: sm.OLS(y ~ const + treated + post + interaction), cov_type='cluster' by country
    Argumentos principais
    cluster:
    "country"
    controls:
    ["treated","post"]
    dataset:
    "ref_panel"
    intercept:
    true
    level:
    0,950.95
    se:
    "HC1"
    x:
    ["interaction"]
    y:
    "y"
    Resultado calculado
    • coef.interaction = -0,0834813 -0.0834813334522015
      Coefficient on interaction in the regression of y
    Diagnósticos: n_obs = 214214 (observations used) · k = 44 (parameters estimated, fixed-effect dummies included) · r2 = 0,05486090.054860876876529185 · df_resid = 210210 · se_type = "cluster" (cluster-robust standard errors (CR1) by 'country') · n_clusters = 107107 (107 clusters of 'country')
  3. 3Conferência de lastro e resposta final

    Todos os 1 números escritos na resposta foram conferidos contra as ferramentas e o enunciado (nenhum número sem lastro).

    Números encontrados: -0,08348
    Figuras citadas: call_31d40207:coef.interaction
    • #0resposta com lastro
      every number traced to a tool call or the question
    • #1figura da resposta próxima
      CRB estimate_within_solution_ci: the answer figure inside the gold 95% interval effect ± 1.96·|SE| of source crb_papers.q001.gold (closed, evaluate_result.py; no --auto-rescale)
    • #2figura da resposta próxima
      replication cell: the gold effect to rel 1e-6 (abs floor 1e-6·SE); never required
    • #3figura da resposta próxima
      replication cell: the gold SE to rel 1e-6; never required

Aprofundamento técnico para especialistas

Acesso direto às fontes primárias, tabela formal de verificações, comparação de argumentos, trajetória completa com prompts brutos e somas SHA-256.

Valores esperados e de onde vêm

crb_papers.q001.gold

Fonte
CausalReasoningBenchmark, causal_queries.json, index 1 (revision edd0fe1c1d1c)
Tipo
benchmark_gold
Localização
causal_queries.json['1'].effect and .standard_error
Trecho
index 1: effect -0.0834813, standard_error 0.417181
Valor como publicado
-0.08348133345223285
Erro-padrão como publicado
0.4171809476066692
Valor
-0,0834813-0.08348133345223285 (se 0,4171810.4171809476066692)
Conferido por
arquivo do benchmark · Read from the catalog at the pinned revision by scripts/freeze_crb_papers.py; the catalog states the value its estimation script prints.
Endereço
https://huggingface.co/datasets/syrgkanislab/CausalReasoningBenchmark/resolve/edd0fe1c1d1c5c0a4f0e3e67a50481ac679fb888/causal_queries.json
Licença
MIT
  • #2 figura da resposta próxima: -0,0834813-0.08348133345223285 · relativa 0.000001 · absoluta 4.1718094760666917e-7
  • #3 figura da resposta próxima: 0,4171810.4171809476066692 · relativa 0.000001 · absoluta 4.1718094760666917e-7

crb_papers.q001.script

Fonte
CausalReasoningBenchmark reference estimation script for index 1
Tipo
software
Localização
solutions/research_papers/DiD/Blair_etal_2022/question_1/estimation.py
Valor
—
Conferido por
arquivo do benchmark · sha256 of the script's 1899 bytes at the pinned revision; the reference path of the item is a transcription of this script into typed transforms and tool calls (never executed here).
Implementação
independente da ferramenta
sha256 da cópia lida
dd3e081e9cc3fa7325e2b2c30704a80eecae8d7bf024a367ae3adb399f80f0a3 (identifica a cópia lida, não um arquivo canônico)
Endereço
https://huggingface.co/datasets/syrgkanislab/CausalReasoningBenchmark/resolve/edd0fe1c1d1c5c0a4f0e3e67a50481ac679fb888/solutions/research_papers/DiD/Blair_etal_2022/question_1/estimation.py
Licença
MIT
    Especificação técnica do gabarito

    CausalReasoningBenchmark gold at the pinned revision: causal_queries.json effect and standard_error (the value the item's estimation.py prints), scored as evaluate_result.py scores estimate_within_solution_ci

    Verificações

    Cada verificação, o que esperava, o que observou e a chamada que leu
    #VerificaçãoObrigatóriaResultadoEsperadoObservadoTolerânciaFonteChamada
    0
    resposta com lastro
    every number traced to a tool call or the question
    every number backed
    obrigatóriapassou0 sem lastro0 sem lastro[]———
    1
    figura da resposta próxima
    CRB estimate_within_solution_ci: the answer figure inside the gold 95% interval effect ± 1.96·|SE| of source crb_papers.q001.gold (closed, evaluate_result.py; no --auto-rescale)
    -0.08348133345 in [-0.9011559908, 0.7341933239]?
    obrigatóriapassou[-0.9011559907613045,0.7341933238568388]-0,0834813-0.0834813334522015interval · [-0.9011559907613045, 0.7341933238568388]—call_31d40207
    2
    figura da resposta próxima
    replication cell: the gold effect to rel 1e-6 (abs floor 1e-6·SE); never required
    -0.08348133345 vs -0.08348133345223285
    registradapassou-0,0834813-0.08348133345223285-0,0834813-0.0834813334522015relativa 0.000001 · absoluta 4.1718094760666917e-7crb_papers.q001.goldcall_31d40207
    3
    figura da resposta próxima
    replication cell: the gold SE to rel 1e-6; never required
    0.4171809476 vs 0.4171809476066692
    registradapassou0,4171810.41718094760666920,4171810.4171809476066827relativa 0.000001 · absoluta 4.1718094760666917e-7crb_papers.q001.goldcall_31d40207

    Caminho de referência e caminho do agente

    A chamada de referência ao lado da chamada que deu a resposta, argumento por argumento.

    caminho de referência do item · benchmark_script

    Referência: infer.olsChamada do agente: infer.ols (call_31d40207)igual
    Argumentos da referência e do agente
    ArgumentoReferênciaAgente
    cluster"country""country"igual
    controls["treated","post"]["treated","post"]igual
    dataset"ref_panel""ref_panel"igual
    fe—[]não fixado pela referência
    intercept—truenão fixado pela referência
    level—0,950.95não fixado pela referência
    se—"HC1"não fixado pela referência
    subset——não fixado pela referência
    weights——não fixado pela referência
    x["interaction"]["interaction"]igual
    y"y""y"igual

    Trajetória

    Cada evento na ordem em que aconteceu: turnos do modelo, chamadas de ferramentas, guardas, transformações e pontuação.

    1. 0Início

      For countries that newly experienced at least one fatal armed conflict in 2000-2002, how did the log of annual non-fuel mineral exploration investment change relative to countries that remained conflict-free in both 1997-1999 and 2000-2002?

      ds_0001 (agent)

      | Variable Name | Description | | --- | --- | | dv | Natural log of total annual exploration spending on non‑fuel minerals (USD, constant 1997) plus one, aggregated to the country–year. Figures come from SNL Metals & Mining’s compilation of company surveys and reports and cover activities such as drilling, geophysics, sampling, assaying, and feasibility studies for metals and minerals (e.g., copper, gold, diamonds, iron ore, silver, uranium). Values are deflated to 1997 dollars and summed across firms within each country and year; the log(+1) form preserves observations with zero reported spending. | | ucdp_lead | Indicator equal to 1 if the UCDP Georeferenced Event Dataset records at least one fatal armed conflict event within the country in the current calendar year or the previous year; 0 otherwise. UCDP defines events as organized use of armed force resulting in at least one direct death and classifies state‑based, one‑sided, and non‑state violence. | | country | Country or territory corresponding to the observation. The panel spans a broad global sample (about 177 countries). | | year | Calendar year of the observation (1997–2014). Stored numerically; represents the Gregorian year. | Dataset Context: This global panel links country–year exploration budgets in the mining sector with standardized information on the presence of armed conflict. Exploration spending is compiled by SNL Metals & Mining from company surveys and public financial reports, then aggregated from firm-level entries to the country–year level. The series covers commercially oriented exploration for non‑fuel minerals—such as base and precious metals, diamonds, iron ore, rare earths, and uranium—and excludes hydrocarbons. Expenditures typically encompass early‑stage and appraisal activities (e.g., drilling campaigns, geophysical surveys, sampling and assaying, scoping and feasibility studies). SNL’s process captures the vast majority of global nonferrous exploration outlays and excludes very small projects below common reporting thresholds; amounts are converted to constant 1997 USD to remove the effects of inflation. Because many country–years legitimately report zero exploration, the spending measure is stored as ln(expenditure + 1). Conflict information is sourced from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program’s georeferenced event data, which catalogs individual incidents where organized actors use armed force resulting in at least one direct fatality. Events include state‑based battles, one‑sided violence against civilians, and non‑state clashes. For each country–year, the dataset flags whether any fatal incident occurred in that year or the year immediately prior, capturing near‑term conflict conditions that overlap with annual financial reporting cycles. The 1997–2014 window spans substantial swings in global metals prices and investment appetites, including the mid‑2000s commodity upcycle and subsequent downturn, and includes both “junior” and “major” mining companies whose exploration budgets respond to financing conditions and market sentiment. The resulting dataset provides harmonized, inflation‑adjusted coverage of exploration activity across roughly 177 countries aligned with a consistent, event‑based record of armed conflict incidence.

      file 887d9adebe0378bfe7ea873256a67275c50fc96aab151431c32de798d1756d41 · frame —
      ref_panel (reference)
      file 887d9adebe0378bfe7ea873256a67275c50fc96aab151431c32de798d1756d41 · frame —
      1. select {"columns":["country","year","dv","ucdp_lead"]}
      2. dropna {"columns":["country","year","dv","ucdp_lead"]}
      3. derive {"args":{"cmp":"gt","column":"ucdp_lead","value":0},"name":"ucdp_lead","op":"indicator"}
      4. filter {"query":"year in [1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002]"}
      5. collapse {"aggs":[{"column":"dv","fn":"count","name":"n"}],"by":["country"]}
      6. select {"columns":["country"]}
      7. merge {"how":"inner","on":["country"],"with":"ref_pre"}
      8. merge {"how":"inner","on":["country"],"with":"ref_post"}
      9. filter {"query":"d_pre == 0 and (d_post > 0 or d_post == 0)"}
      10. derive {"args":{"cmp":"gt","column":"d_post","value":0},"name":"treated","op":"indicator"}
      11. reshape_long {"id":["country"],"j":"post","stubs":["y"]}
      12. derive {"args":{"columns":["treated","post"]},"name":"interaction","op":"interaction"}
      ref_post (reference)
      file 887d9adebe0378bfe7ea873256a67275c50fc96aab151431c32de798d1756d41 · frame —
      1. select {"columns":["country","year","dv","ucdp_lead"]}
      2. dropna {"columns":["country","year","dv","ucdp_lead"]}
      3. derive {"args":{"cmp":"gt","column":"ucdp_lead","value":0},"name":"ucdp_lead","op":"indicator"}
      4. filter {"query":"year in [2000, 2001, 2002]"}
      5. collapse {"aggs":[{"column":"dv","fn":"mean","name":"y1"},{"column":"ucdp_lead","fn":"mean","name":"d_post"}],"by":["country"]}
      ref_pre (reference)
      file 887d9adebe0378bfe7ea873256a67275c50fc96aab151431c32de798d1756d41 · frame —
      1. select {"columns":["country","year","dv","ucdp_lead"]}
      2. dropna {"columns":["country","year","dv","ucdp_lead"]}
      3. derive {"args":{"cmp":"gt","column":"ucdp_lead","value":0},"name":"ucdp_lead","op":"indicator"}
      4. filter {"query":"year in [1997, 1998, 1999]"}
      5. collapse {"aggs":[{"column":"dv","fn":"mean","name":"y0"},{"column":"ucdp_lead","fn":"mean","name":"d_pre"}],"by":["country"]}
    2. 1Transformação
      ref_pre · select {"columns":["country","year","dv","ucdp_lead"]}
      3186 → 3186 linhas
      Frame antes → depois: 6fc175d00f59 → a23840f8ea16
    3. 2Transformação
      ref_pre · dropna {"columns":["country","year","dv","ucdp_lead"]}
      3186 → 3186 linhas
      Frame antes → depois: a23840f8ea16 → a23840f8ea16
    4. 3Transformação
      ref_pre · derive {"args":{"cmp":"gt","column":"ucdp_lead","value":0},"name":"ucdp_lead","op":"indicator"}
      3186 → 3186 linhas
      Frame antes → depois: a23840f8ea16 → a23840f8ea16
    5. 4Transformação
      ref_pre · filter {"query":"year in [1997, 1998, 1999]"}
      3186 → 531 linhas
      Frame antes → depois: a23840f8ea16 → 142e9561d859
    6. 5Transformação
      ref_pre · collapse {"aggs":[{"column":"dv","fn":"mean","name":"y0"},{"column":"ucdp_lead","fn":"mean","name":"d_pre"}],"by":["country"]}
      531 → 177 linhas
      Frame antes → depois: 142e9561d859 → d7feed5e8ef0
    7. 6Transformação
      ref_post · select {"columns":["country","year","dv","ucdp_lead"]}
      3186 → 3186 linhas
      Frame antes → depois: 6fc175d00f59 → a23840f8ea16
    8. 7Transformação
      ref_post · dropna {"columns":["country","year","dv","ucdp_lead"]}
      3186 → 3186 linhas
      Frame antes → depois: a23840f8ea16 → a23840f8ea16
    9. 8Transformação
      ref_post · derive {"args":{"cmp":"gt","column":"ucdp_lead","value":0},"name":"ucdp_lead","op":"indicator"}
      3186 → 3186 linhas
      Frame antes → depois: a23840f8ea16 → a23840f8ea16
    10. 9Transformação
      ref_post · filter {"query":"year in [2000, 2001, 2002]"}
      3186 → 531 linhas
      Frame antes → depois: a23840f8ea16 → c3ee4ac54e46
    11. 10Transformação
      ref_post · collapse {"aggs":[{"column":"dv","fn":"mean","name":"y1"},{"column":"ucdp_lead","fn":"mean","name":"d_post"}],"by":["country"]}
      531 → 177 linhas
      Frame antes → depois: c3ee4ac54e46 → b99159d2aa0c
    12. 11Transformação
      ref_panel · select {"columns":["country","year","dv","ucdp_lead"]}
      3186 → 3186 linhas
      Frame antes → depois: 6fc175d00f59 → a23840f8ea16
    13. 12Transformação
      ref_panel · dropna {"columns":["country","year","dv","ucdp_lead"]}
      3186 → 3186 linhas
      Frame antes → depois: a23840f8ea16 → a23840f8ea16
    14. 13Transformação
      ref_panel · derive {"args":{"cmp":"gt","column":"ucdp_lead","value":0},"name":"ucdp_lead","op":"indicator"}
      3186 → 3186 linhas
      Frame antes → depois: a23840f8ea16 → a23840f8ea16
    15. 14Transformação
      ref_panel · filter {"query":"year in [1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002]"}
      3186 → 1062 linhas
      Frame antes → depois: a23840f8ea16 → d999769ee1a4
    16. 15Transformação
      ref_panel · collapse {"aggs":[{"column":"dv","fn":"count","name":"n"}],"by":["country"]}
      1062 → 177 linhas
      Frame antes → depois: d999769ee1a4 → b336986f44ea
    17. 16Transformação
      ref_panel · select {"columns":["country"]}
      177 → 177 linhas
      Frame antes → depois: b336986f44ea → 08a3639bb0e5
    18. 17Transformação
      ref_panel · merge {"how":"inner","on":["country"],"with":"ref_pre"}
      177 → 177 linhas
      Frame antes → depois: 08a3639bb0e5 → d7feed5e8ef0
    19. 18Transformação
      ref_panel · merge {"how":"inner","on":["country"],"with":"ref_post"}
      177 → 177 linhas
      Frame antes → depois: d7feed5e8ef0 → ab51dba11ec7
    20. 19Transformação
      ref_panel · filter {"query":"d_pre == 0 and (d_post > 0 or d_post == 0)"}
      177 → 107 linhas
      Frame antes → depois: ab51dba11ec7 → af858aed933d
    21. 20Transformação
      ref_panel · derive {"args":{"cmp":"gt","column":"d_post","value":0},"name":"treated","op":"indicator"}
      107 → 107 linhas
      Frame antes → depois: af858aed933d → 7f6fa963eef5
    22. 21Transformação
      ref_panel · reshape_long {"id":["country"],"j":"post","stubs":["y"]}
      107 → 214 linhas
      Frame antes → depois: 7f6fa963eef5 → 9817d5d8a8dc
    23. 22Transformação
      ref_panel · derive {"args":{"columns":["treated","post"]},"name":"interaction","op":"interaction"}
      214 → 214 linhas
      Frame antes → depois: 9817d5d8a8dc → 2b9356ec0b9b
    24. 23Turno do modelo
      call_393855a1referenceFim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache
      Texto visível

      sm.OLS(y ~ const + treated + post + interaction), cov_type='cluster' by country

      Chamadas pedidas
      • infer.ols
        {
          "cluster": "country",
          "controls": [
            "treated",
            "post"
          ],
          "dataset": "ref_panel",
          "x": [
            "interaction"
          ],
          "y": "y"
        }
    25. 24Ferramenta
      infer.ols— Regressão linear por mínimos quadrados ordinários (MQO)v0.1.0call_31d40207decidido pelo modeloreexecutável

      Motivo: sm.OLS(y ~ const + treated + post + interaction), cov_type='cluster' by country

      Argumentos
      {
        "cluster": "country",
        "controls": [
          "treated",
          "post"
        ],
        "dataset": "ref_panel",
        "fe": [],
        "intercept": true,
        "level": 0.95,
        "se": "HC1",
        "subset": null,
        "weights": null,
        "x": [
          "interaction"
        ],
        "y": "y"
      }
      Figuras call_31d40207
      ChaveValorValor brutoErro-padrãoIC
      coef.interaction
      Coefficient on interaction in the regression of y
      -0,0834813-0.08348133345220150,4171810.4171809476066827-0,910583 – 0,74362
      Diagnósticos
      • n_obs = 214214 (observations used)
      • k = 44 (parameters estimated, fixed-effect dummies included)
      • r2 = 0,05486090.054860876876529185
      • df_resid = 210210
      • se_type = "cluster" (cluster-robust standard errors (CR1) by 'country')
      • n_clusters = 107107 (107 clusters of 'country')
      Derivação matemática e pressupostos
      coef.interaction
      1. Coeficiente de interaction na regressão por mínimos quadrados ordinários de y.→ -0,0834813 (-0.0834813334522015)
      2. Erro-padrão robusto por conglomerado (CR1): a raiz da variância estimada do coeficiente.ep = √V_jj→ 0,417181 (0.4171809476066827)
      3. Intervalo de 95% de confiança: a estimativa mais ou menos o valor crítico da distribuição t de Student com 106 graus de liberdade vezes o erro-padrão.IC = β ± c · ep
      Pressupostos do estimador
      • the conditional mean of the outcome is linear in the regressors
      • errors are independent across clusters of 'country' and may be correlated within them
      Tabelas (1)
      {
        "coefficients": [
          {
            "ci_high": 9.342532612089958,
            "ci_low": 6.364856763953857,
            "coef": 7.853694688021908,
            "p": 5.168148451502389e-18,
            "se": 0.7509532837457076,
            "t": 10.458299947565546,
            "term": "Intercept"
          },
          {
            "ci_high": 0.7436204709335442,
            "ci_low": -0.9105831378379473,
            "coef": -0.0834813334522015,
            "p": 0.8417793598356013,
            "se": 0.4171809476066827,
            "t": -0.2001082118709494,
            "term": "interaction"
          },
          {
            "ci_high": 11.693861258863539,
            "ci_low": 1.9433977612381854,
            "coef": 6.8186295100508625,
            "p": 0.006565168162864022,
            "se": 2.459012651147964,
            "t": 2.7729135540915815,
            "term": "treated"
          },
          {
            "ci_high": -0.18115594914199162,
            "ci_low": -1.600974686324159,
            "coef": -0.8910653177330753,
            "p": 0.014383952558234266,
            "se": 0.358070386901932,
            "t": -2.488519995866398,
            "term": "post"
          }
        ]
      }
      Hashes SHA-256 e metadados de reprodução
      Digests dos dados
      ref_panel 2b9356ec0b9bde6fad91668b9d998d6f995d46c83231f41522dcf118f76c42fa
      sha256 do resultado
      fa985a616e098724bea9c459e2defd64f85ed7b2b67761466ad54c208d0f9f89
    26. 25Turno do modelo
      call_ad7b38dereferenceFim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache
      Chamadas pedidas
      • submit_answer (meta-ferramenta)
        {
          "answer": "Estimativa (infer.ols): coef.interaction = -0,08348. Reference path transcribed from the item's own estimation script.",
          "caveats": [],
          "figure_refs": [
            "call_31d40207:coef.interaction"
          ]
        }
    27. 26Guarda
      resposta aceita
      Números encontrados
      -0,08348
      Sem lastro
      —
      Não citados
      —
      1 nova(s) tentativa(s) restante(s)
    28. 27Resposta

      Estimativa (infer.ols): coef.interaction = -0,08348. Reference path transcribed from the item's own estimation script.

      Figuras citadas: call_31d40207:coef.interaction · Parada: answered
      Figura da resposta: call_31d40207:coef.interaction = -0,0834813-0.0834813334522015 (se 0,4171810.4171809476066827)
    29. 28Pontuação
      #0resposta com lastropassouobrigatóriaevery number backed
    30. 29Pontuação
      #1figura da resposta próximapassouobrigatória-0.08348133345 in [-0.9011559908, 0.7341933239]?
    31. 30Pontuação
      #2figura da resposta próximapassouregistrada-0.08348133345 vs -0.08348133345223285
    32. 31Pontuação
      #3figura da resposta próximapassouregistrada0.4171809476 vs 0.4171809476066692

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