Tarefa crb_papers.q016
crb_papersagentT2publicépoca 1, tentativa 1Execução: 20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5Veredito
Família do método (das chamadas de ferramentas): Regressão linear por mínimos quadrados ordinários (MQO) · infer.ols (did · OLS on the interaction of a group indicator and a period indicator (2x2 difference in differences))
coef.treated_post =7,097247.097237775872289coef.treated_post =[3.0621870495715298,11.132288502173019]Pergunta feita ao analista
Among activists who go into exile in month index 56, what is the change in their monthly share of tweets about foreign-led policy topics in the month after exile versus the month before, compared with contemporaneous activists who stayed in-country?
Estimativa (infer.ols): coef.treated_post = 7,097. Reference path transcribed from the item's own estimation script.
Como o agente resolveu e como foi validado
Resumo passo a passo do que o agente executou, por que o caminho está correto e como cada verificação conferiu o resultado.
- 1Preparação da base de dados
ds_0009— | Variable Name | Description | | --- | --- | | actor.id | Stable, URI-style identifier for a public Twitter account belonging to a Venezuelan opposition figure (e.g., legislators, mayors, activists, or journalists). Uniquely identifies the account across all months in the panel. | | month | Month start date (YYYY-MM-01) indicating the calendar month over which tweets were aggregated. Coverage runs from 2013-01-01 through 2020-05-01. | | perc_foreign_policy | Percentage of an account’s tweets in the given month that reference foreign-led policy topics (e.g., diplomacy, sanctions, international pressure, or military action). Constructed via dictionary-based text classification informed by word-embedding similarity trained on the corpus; reported as a percent (0–100), with fractional values possible (e.g., 0.78 means 0.78%). | | tweeted_exile | Indicator (0/1) that the individual associated with the account was residing outside Venezuela during the month. Coded from publicly available reporting and biographical sources; months are flagged once a departure is documented and until return, where known. | | log_tweets | Natural logarithm of the total number of public tweets posted by the account in the month, providing a scale-stable measure of activity volume. | | actor | Text identifier for the account (often the same string as actor.id), included for readability and consistency with external sources. | | months | Sequential month index starting at 1 for the first month in the dataset (January 2013) and increasing by one each calendar month. Useful for aligning time across accounts. | | actorid | Numeric panel identifier for the Twitter account, facilitating joins and fixed account indexing across files or analyses. | Dataset Context: This dataset assembles a monthly panel of Twitter activity from prominent Venezuelan opposition figures across a period of intense political and economic turbulence, spanning January 2013 to May 2020. The roster includes elected officials and well-known public voices who were active on the platform. Researchers identified accounts manually and used Twitter’s full-archive access to retrieve complete public tweet histories. Tweets were then aggregated to the account–month level to create consistent longitudinal records of online discourse. To track whether individuals were inside or outside the country over time, residency status was coded from publicly available sources such as news reports, official statements, and biographical materials. Where exact dates were uncertain, the earliest documented indication of living abroad was used to anchor timing. The monthly topic measure included here—the share of tweets about foreign-led policy actions—was built using dictionaries expanded from seed terms via word-embedding similarity trained on the study corpus, capturing Venezuela-specific vocabulary and multilingual usage. Monthly tweet counts were also recorded and log-transformed to summarize posting volume. The observation window covers major developments in Venezuela’s political landscape, including leadership transitions, contested elections, large protest cycles, and deepening economic and humanitarian crises. During these years, traditional media faced heavy constraints, and social media—particularly Twitter—served as a key venue for public communication, political messaging, and engagement with domestic and international audiences. Many opposition figures maintained active online presences throughout the period, and some relocated abroad; the panel structure allows their communication patterns to be followed continuously month by month. All data derive from public digital traces and public-domain biographical information, and the panel includes only months in which an account posted at least one tweet.ref_firstref_obsref_panelTransformação "select" aplicada à base "ref_first" (22491 → 22491 linhas).{"columns":["actorid","months","tweeted_exile","perc_foreign_policy","log_tweets"]}Transformação "dropna" aplicada à base "ref_first" (22491 → 22491 linhas).{"columns":["perc_foreign_policy","log_tweets","months"]}Transformação "filter" aplicada à base "ref_first" (22491 → 2754 linhas).{"query":"tweeted_exile == 1"}Transformação "collapse" aplicada à base "ref_first" (2754 → 89 linhas).{"aggs":[{"column":"months","fn":"min","name":"g"}],"by":["actorid"]}Transformação "select" aplicada à base "ref_obs" (22491 → 22491 linhas).{"columns":["actorid","months","tweeted_exile","perc_foreign_policy","log_tweets"]}Transformação "dropna" aplicada à base "ref_obs" (22491 → 22491 linhas).{"columns":["perc_foreign_policy","log_tweets","months"]}Transformação "filter" aplicada à base "ref_obs" (22491 → 546 linhas).{"query":"months in [55, 57]"}Transformação "collapse" aplicada à base "ref_obs" (546 → 546 linhas).{"aggs":[{"column":"perc_foreign_policy","fn":"count","name":"n"},{"column":"tweeted_exile","fn":"max","name":"t"}],"by":["actorid","months"]}Transformação "collapse" aplicada à base "ref_obs" (546 → 282 linhas).{"aggs":[{"column":"n","fn":"count","name":"nboth"},{"column":"t","fn":"max","name":"tmax"}],"by":["actorid"]}Transformação "select" aplicada à base "ref_panel" (22491 → 22491 linhas).{"columns":["actorid","months","tweeted_exile","perc_foreign_policy","log_tweets"]}Transformação "dropna" aplicada à base "ref_panel" (22491 → 22491 linhas).{"columns":["perc_foreign_policy","log_tweets","months"]}Transformação "filter" aplicada à base "ref_panel" (22491 → 546 linhas).{"query":"months in [55, 57]"}Transformação "merge" aplicada à base "ref_panel" (546 → 546 linhas).{"how":"left","on":["actorid"],"with":"ref_first"}Transformação "merge" aplicada à base "ref_panel" (546 → 546 linhas).{"how":"left","on":["actorid"],"with":"ref_obs"}Transformação "filter" aplicada à base "ref_panel" (546 → 472 linhas).{"query":"nboth == 2 and (g == 56 or ((g != g or g > 57) and tmax == 0))"}Transformação "derive" aplicada à base "ref_panel" (472 → 472 linhas).{"args":{"cmp":"eq","column":"g","value":56},"name":"treated","op":"indicator"}Transformação "derive" aplicada à base "ref_panel" (472 → 472 linhas).{"args":{"column":"treated","default":0,"keep_unmapped":false,"mapping":[{"source":1,"target":1}]},"name":"treated","op":"map"}Transformação "derive" aplicada à base "ref_panel" (472 → 472 linhas).{"args":{"cmp":"eq","column":"months","value":57},"name":"post","op":"indicator"}Transformação "derive" aplicada à base "ref_panel" (472 → 472 linhas).{"args":{"columns":["treated","post"]},"name":"treated_post","op":"interaction"} - 2Chamada que gerou a resposta finalVer chamada call_e2c5132e nos detalhes
infer.ols(Regressão linear por mínimos quadrados ordinários (MQO))citada na respostacoincide com a referênciasm.OLS(y, [const, treated, post, treated_post, log_tweets]).fit(cov_type='cluster', groups=actorid) (CR1 errors with statsmodels' default G/(G-1)·(N-1)/(N-K) correction)
Por que este é o caminho de referência: sm.OLS(y, [const, treated, post, treated_post, log_tweets]).fit(cov_type='cluster', groups=actorid) (CR1 errors with statsmodels' default G/(G-1)·(N-1)/(N-K) correction)Argumentos principais- cluster:
"actorid"- controls:
["treated","post","log_tweets"]- dataset:
"ref_panel"- intercept:
true- level:
- 0,95
0.95 - se:
"HC1"- x:
["treated_post"]- y:
"perc_foreign_policy"
Resultado calculadocoef.treated_post= 7,097247.097237775872289Coefficient on treated_post in the regression of perc_foreign_policy
Diagnósticos:n_obs= 472472(observations used) ·k= 55(parameters estimated, fixed-effect dummies included) ·r2= 0,05986390.05986385995481491·df_resid= 467467·se_type="cluster"(cluster-robust standard errors (CR1) by 'actorid') ·n_clusters= 236236(236 clusters of 'actorid') - 3Conferência de lastro e resposta final
Todos os 1 números escritos na resposta foram conferidos contra as ferramentas e o enunciado (nenhum número sem lastro).
Números encontrados:7,097Figuras citadas:call_e2c5132e:coef.treated_post- #0resposta com lastroevery number traced to a tool call or the question
- #1figura da resposta próximaCRB estimate_within_solution_ci: the answer figure inside the gold 95% interval effect ± 1.96·|SE| of source crb_papers.q016.gold (closed, evaluate_result.py; no --auto-rescale)
- #2figura da resposta próximareplication cell: the gold effect to rel 1e-6 (abs floor 1e-6·SE); never required
- #3figura da resposta próximareplication cell: the gold SE to rel 1e-6; never required
Aprofundamento técnico para especialistas
Acesso direto às fontes primárias, tabela formal de verificações, comparação de argumentos, trajetória completa com prompts brutos e somas SHA-256.
Valores esperados e de onde vêm
crb_papers.q016.gold
- Fonte
- CausalReasoningBenchmark, causal_queries.json, index 16 (revision edd0fe1c1d1c)
- Tipo
- benchmark_gold
- Localização
- causal_queries.json['16'].effect and .standard_error
- Trecho
index 16: effect 7.09724, standard_error 2.0587
- Valor como publicado
7.097237775872275- Erro-padrão como publicado
2.058699350153441- Valor
- 7,09724
7.097237775872275(se 2,05872.058699350153441) - Conferido por
- arquivo do benchmark · Read from the catalog at the pinned revision by scripts/freeze_crb_papers.py; the catalog states the value its estimation script prints.
- Endereço
https://huggingface.co/datasets/syrgkanislab/CausalReasoningBenchmark/resolve/edd0fe1c1d1c5c0a4f0e3e67a50481ac679fb888/causal_queries.json- Licença
- MIT
- #2 figura da resposta próxima: 7,09724
7.097237775872275· relativa 0.000001 · absoluta 0.000002058699350153441 - #3 figura da resposta próxima: 2,0587
2.058699350153441· relativa 0.000001 · absoluta 0.000002058699350153441
crb_papers.q016.script
- Fonte
- CausalReasoningBenchmark reference estimation script for index 16
- Tipo
- software
- Localização
- solutions/research_papers/DiD/Esberg_Siegel_2023/question_1/estimation.py
- Valor
- —
- Conferido por
- arquivo do benchmark · sha256 of the script's 2036 bytes at the pinned revision; the reference path of the item is a transcription of this script into typed transforms and tool calls (never executed here).
- Implementação
- independente da ferramenta
- sha256 da cópia lida
31dc6519a7d3ad99c10f4892e7aa32f1f236138e811ab45b60c4d69b628e53f8(identifica a cópia lida, não um arquivo canônico)- Endereço
https://huggingface.co/datasets/syrgkanislab/CausalReasoningBenchmark/resolve/edd0fe1c1d1c5c0a4f0e3e67a50481ac679fb888/solutions/research_papers/DiD/Esberg_Siegel_2023/question_1/estimation.py- Licença
- MIT
Especificação técnica do gabarito
CausalReasoningBenchmark gold at the pinned revision: causal_queries.json effect and standard_error (the value the item's estimation.py prints), scored as evaluate_result.py scores estimate_within_solution_ci
Verificações
| # | Verificação | Obrigatória | Resultado | Esperado | Observado | Tolerância | Fonte | Chamada |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | resposta com lastro every number traced to a tool call or the question every number backed | obrigatória | passou | 0 sem lastro | 0 sem lastro[] | — | — | — |
| 1 | figura da resposta próxima CRB estimate_within_solution_ci: the answer figure inside the gold 95% interval effect ± 1.96·|SE| of source crb_papers.q016.gold (closed, evaluate_result.py; no --auto-rescale) 7.097237776 in [3.06218705, 11.1322885]? | obrigatória | passou | [3.0621870495715298,11.132288502173019] | 7,097247.097237775872289 | interval · [3.0621870495715298, 11.132288502173019] | — | call_e2c5132e |
| 2 | figura da resposta próxima replication cell: the gold effect to rel 1e-6 (abs floor 1e-6·SE); never required 7.097237776 vs 7.097237775872275 | registrada | passou | 7,097247.097237775872275 | 7,097247.097237775872289 | relativa 0.000001 · absoluta 0.000002058699350153441 | crb_papers.q016.gold | call_e2c5132e |
| 3 | figura da resposta próxima replication cell: the gold SE to rel 1e-6; never required 2.05869935 vs 2.058699350153441 | registrada | passou | 2,05872.058699350153441 | 2,05872.058699350153437 | relativa 0.000001 · absoluta 0.000002058699350153441 | crb_papers.q016.gold | call_e2c5132e |
Caminho de referência e caminho do agente
A chamada de referência ao lado da chamada que deu a resposta, argumento por argumento.
caminho de referência do item · benchmark_script
| Argumento | Referência | Agente | |
|---|---|---|---|
| cluster | "actorid" | "actorid" | igual |
| controls | ["treated","post","log_tweets"] | ["treated","post","log_tweets"] | igual |
| dataset | "ref_panel" | "ref_panel" | igual |
| fe | — | [] | não fixado pela referência |
| intercept | — | true | não fixado pela referência |
| level | — | 0,950.95 | não fixado pela referência |
| se | — | "HC1" | não fixado pela referência |
| subset | — | — | não fixado pela referência |
| weights | — | — | não fixado pela referência |
| x | ["treated_post"] | ["treated_post"] | igual |
| y | "perc_foreign_policy" | "perc_foreign_policy" | igual |
Trajetória
Cada evento na ordem em que aconteceu: turnos do modelo, chamadas de ferramentas, guardas, transformações e pontuação.
- 0Início
Among activists who go into exile in month index 56, what is the change in their monthly share of tweets about foreign-led policy topics in the month after exile versus the month before, compared with contemporaneous activists who stayed in-country?
ds_0009(agent)| Variable Name | Description | | --- | --- | | actor.id | Stable, URI-style identifier for a public Twitter account belonging to a Venezuelan opposition figure (e.g., legislators, mayors, activists, or journalists). Uniquely identifies the account across all months in the panel. | | month | Month start date (YYYY-MM-01) indicating the calendar month over which tweets were aggregated. Coverage runs from 2013-01-01 through 2020-05-01. | | perc_foreign_policy | Percentage of an account’s tweets in the given month that reference foreign-led policy topics (e.g., diplomacy, sanctions, international pressure, or military action). Constructed via dictionary-based text classification informed by word-embedding similarity trained on the corpus; reported as a percent (0–100), with fractional values possible (e.g., 0.78 means 0.78%). | | tweeted_exile | Indicator (0/1) that the individual associated with the account was residing outside Venezuela during the month. Coded from publicly available reporting and biographical sources; months are flagged once a departure is documented and until return, where known. | | log_tweets | Natural logarithm of the total number of public tweets posted by the account in the month, providing a scale-stable measure of activity volume. | | actor | Text identifier for the account (often the same string as actor.id), included for readability and consistency with external sources. | | months | Sequential month index starting at 1 for the first month in the dataset (January 2013) and increasing by one each calendar month. Useful for aligning time across accounts. | | actorid | Numeric panel identifier for the Twitter account, facilitating joins and fixed account indexing across files or analyses. | Dataset Context: This dataset assembles a monthly panel of Twitter activity from prominent Venezuelan opposition figures across a period of intense political and economic turbulence, spanning January 2013 to May 2020. The roster includes elected officials and well-known public voices who were active on the platform. Researchers identified accounts manually and used Twitter’s full-archive access to retrieve complete public tweet histories. Tweets were then aggregated to the account–month level to create consistent longitudinal records of online discourse. To track whether individuals were inside or outside the country over time, residency status was coded from publicly available sources such as news reports, official statements, and biographical materials. Where exact dates were uncertain, the earliest documented indication of living abroad was used to anchor timing. The monthly topic measure included here—the share of tweets about foreign-led policy actions—was built using dictionaries expanded from seed terms via word-embedding similarity trained on the study corpus, capturing Venezuela-specific vocabulary and multilingual usage. Monthly tweet counts were also recorded and log-transformed to summarize posting volume. The observation window covers major developments in Venezuela’s political landscape, including leadership transitions, contested elections, large protest cycles, and deepening economic and humanitarian crises. During these years, traditional media faced heavy constraints, and social media—particularly Twitter—served as a key venue for public communication, political messaging, and engagement with domestic and international audiences. Many opposition figures maintained active online presences throughout the period, and some relocated abroad; the panel structure allows their communication patterns to be followed continuously month by month. All data derive from public digital traces and public-domain biographical information, and the panel includes only months in which an account posted at least one tweet.
file3128de21a97807498f279bcb7159973e89621cc6bd4a98c8f319813649f925a8· frame —ref_first(reference)file3128de21a97807498f279bcb7159973e89621cc6bd4a98c8f319813649f925a8· frame —select{"columns":["actorid","months","tweeted_exile","perc_foreign_policy","log_tweets"]}dropna{"columns":["perc_foreign_policy","log_tweets","months"]}filter{"query":"tweeted_exile == 1"}collapse{"aggs":[{"column":"months","fn":"min","name":"g"}],"by":["actorid"]}
ref_obs(reference)file3128de21a97807498f279bcb7159973e89621cc6bd4a98c8f319813649f925a8· frame —select{"columns":["actorid","months","tweeted_exile","perc_foreign_policy","log_tweets"]}dropna{"columns":["perc_foreign_policy","log_tweets","months"]}filter{"query":"months in [55, 57]"}collapse{"aggs":[{"column":"perc_foreign_policy","fn":"count","name":"n"},{"column":"tweeted_exile","fn":"max","name":"t"}],"by":["actorid","months"]}collapse{"aggs":[{"column":"n","fn":"count","name":"nboth"},{"column":"t","fn":"max","name":"tmax"}],"by":["actorid"]}
ref_panel(reference)file3128de21a97807498f279bcb7159973e89621cc6bd4a98c8f319813649f925a8· frame —select{"columns":["actorid","months","tweeted_exile","perc_foreign_policy","log_tweets"]}dropna{"columns":["perc_foreign_policy","log_tweets","months"]}filter{"query":"months in [55, 57]"}merge{"how":"left","on":["actorid"],"with":"ref_first"}merge{"how":"left","on":["actorid"],"with":"ref_obs"}filter{"query":"nboth == 2 and (g == 56 or ((g != g or g > 57) and tmax == 0))"}derive{"args":{"cmp":"eq","column":"g","value":56},"name":"treated","op":"indicator"}derive{"args":{"column":"treated","default":0,"keep_unmapped":false,"mapping":[{"source":1,"target":1}]},"name":"treated","op":"map"}derive{"args":{"cmp":"eq","column":"months","value":57},"name":"post","op":"indicator"}derive{"args":{"columns":["treated","post"]},"name":"treated_post","op":"interaction"}
- 1Transformação
ref_first·select{"columns":["actorid","months","tweeted_exile","perc_foreign_policy","log_tweets"]}22491 → 22491 linhasFrame antes → depois:bedb4686cb9f→8c26e880509f - 2Transformação
ref_first·dropna{"columns":["perc_foreign_policy","log_tweets","months"]}22491 → 22491 linhasFrame antes → depois:8c26e880509f→8c26e880509f - 3Transformação
ref_first·filter{"query":"tweeted_exile == 1"}22491 → 2754 linhasFrame antes → depois:8c26e880509f→4cad94d432f5 - 4Transformação
ref_first·collapse{"aggs":[{"column":"months","fn":"min","name":"g"}],"by":["actorid"]}2754 → 89 linhasFrame antes → depois:4cad94d432f5→c717ff2e6bc0 - 5Transformação
ref_obs·select{"columns":["actorid","months","tweeted_exile","perc_foreign_policy","log_tweets"]}22491 → 22491 linhasFrame antes → depois:bedb4686cb9f→8c26e880509f - 6Transformação
ref_obs·dropna{"columns":["perc_foreign_policy","log_tweets","months"]}22491 → 22491 linhasFrame antes → depois:8c26e880509f→8c26e880509f - 7Transformação
ref_obs·filter{"query":"months in [55, 57]"}22491 → 546 linhasFrame antes → depois:8c26e880509f→a9fe0fa41a21 - 8Transformação
ref_obs·collapse{"aggs":[{"column":"perc_foreign_policy","fn":"count","name":"n"},{"column":"tweeted_exile","fn":"max","name":"t"}],"by":["actorid","months"]}546 → 546 linhasFrame antes → depois:a9fe0fa41a21→48330a3855a7 - 9Transformação
ref_obs·collapse{"aggs":[{"column":"n","fn":"count","name":"nboth"},{"column":"t","fn":"max","name":"tmax"}],"by":["actorid"]}546 → 282 linhasFrame antes → depois:48330a3855a7→eb958d258fd8 - 10Transformação
ref_panel·select{"columns":["actorid","months","tweeted_exile","perc_foreign_policy","log_tweets"]}22491 → 22491 linhasFrame antes → depois:bedb4686cb9f→8c26e880509f - 11Transformação
ref_panel·dropna{"columns":["perc_foreign_policy","log_tweets","months"]}22491 → 22491 linhasFrame antes → depois:8c26e880509f→8c26e880509f - 12Transformação
ref_panel·filter{"query":"months in [55, 57]"}22491 → 546 linhasFrame antes → depois:8c26e880509f→a9fe0fa41a21 - 13Transformação
ref_panel·merge{"how":"left","on":["actorid"],"with":"ref_first"}546 → 546 linhasFrame antes → depois:a9fe0fa41a21→d6071d130dd2 - 14Transformação
ref_panel·merge{"how":"left","on":["actorid"],"with":"ref_obs"}546 → 546 linhasFrame antes → depois:d6071d130dd2→751d3676a979 - 15Transformação
ref_panel·filter{"query":"nboth == 2 and (g == 56 or ((g != g or g > 57) and tmax == 0))"}546 → 472 linhasFrame antes → depois:751d3676a979→1402ad5d1dae - 16Transformação
ref_panel·derive{"args":{"cmp":"eq","column":"g","value":56},"name":"treated","op":"indicator"}472 → 472 linhasFrame antes → depois:1402ad5d1dae→61f820dfe4bc - 17Transformação
ref_panel·derive{"args":{"column":"treated","default":0,"keep_unmapped":false,"mapping":[{"source":1,"target":1}]},"name":"treated","op":"map"}472 → 472 linhasFrame antes → depois:61f820dfe4bc→e43da9d3620b - 18Transformação
ref_panel·derive{"args":{"cmp":"eq","column":"months","value":57},"name":"post","op":"indicator"}472 → 472 linhasFrame antes → depois:e43da9d3620b→ca87501bc33d - 19Transformação
ref_panel·derive{"args":{"columns":["treated","post"]},"name":"treated_post","op":"interaction"}472 → 472 linhasFrame antes → depois:ca87501bc33d→24455721da48 - 20Turno do modelo
call_4ddd801creferenceFim:tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cacheTexto visívelsm.OLS(y, [const, treated, post, treated_post, log_tweets]).fit(cov_type='cluster', groups=actorid) (CR1 errors with statsmodels' default G/(G-1)·(N-1)/(N-K) correction)
Chamadas pedidasinfer.ols{ "cluster": "actorid", "controls": [ "treated", "post", "log_tweets" ], "dataset": "ref_panel", "x": [ "treated_post" ], "y": "perc_foreign_policy" }
- 21Ferramenta
infer.ols— Regressão linear por mínimos quadrados ordinários (MQO)v0.1.0call_e2c5132edecidido pelo modeloreexecutávelMotivo: sm.OLS(y, [const, treated, post, treated_post, log_tweets]).fit(cov_type='cluster', groups=actorid) (CR1 errors with statsmodels' default G/(G-1)·(N-1)/(N-K) correction)
Argumentos
{ "cluster": "actorid", "controls": [ "treated", "post", "log_tweets" ], "dataset": "ref_panel", "fe": [], "intercept": true, "level": 0.95, "se": "HC1", "subset": null, "weights": null, "x": [ "treated_post" ], "y": "perc_foreign_policy" }Figuras call_e2c5132e Chave Valor Valor bruto Erro-padrão IC coef.treated_post Coefficient on treated_post in the regression of perc_foreign_policy7,09724 7.0972377758722892,0587 2.0586993501534373,04137 – 11,1531 Diagnósticosn_obs= 472472(observations used)k= 55(parameters estimated, fixed-effect dummies included)r2= 0,05986390.05986385995481491df_resid= 467467se_type="cluster"(cluster-robust standard errors (CR1) by 'actorid')n_clusters= 236236(236 clusters of 'actorid')
Derivação matemática e pressupostos
coef.treated_post- Coeficiente de treated_post na regressão por mínimos quadrados ordinários de perc_foreign_policy.→ 7,09724 (7.097237775872289)
- Erro-padrão robusto por conglomerado (CR1): a raiz da variância estimada do coeficiente.
ep = √V_jj→ 2,0587 (2.058699350153437) - Intervalo de 95% de confiança: a estimativa mais ou menos o valor crítico da distribuição t de Student com 235 graus de liberdade vezes o erro-padrão.
IC = β ± c · ep
Pressupostos do estimador- the conditional mean of the outcome is linear in the regressors
- errors are independent across clusters of 'actorid' and may be correlated within them
Tabelas (1)
{ "coefficients": [ { "ci_high": 3.856158004212713, "ci_low": -1.0105442084808618, "coef": 1.4228068978659256, "p": 0.2505143053507573, "se": 1.2351346013356097, "t": 1.1519448134052572, "term": "Intercept" }, { "ci_high": 11.153102080794381, "ci_low": 3.0413734709501963, "coef": 7.097237775872289, "p": 0.000670417417377135, "se": 2.058699350153437, "t": 3.447437711263339, "term": "treated_post" }, { "ci_high": 0.12225785146870893, "ci_low": -1.5301914138229542, "coef": -0.7039667811771226, "p": 0.09456126476844132, "se": 0.419379936415651, "t": -1.6785895557946175, "term": "treated" }, { "ci_high": 1.7545143938040368, "ci_low": 0.6646019268112816, "coef": 1.2095581603076593, "p": 0.00001843901533273804, "se": 0.2766120756060668, "t": 4.3727597851882445, "term": "post" }, { "ci_high": 0.40700272031897883, "ci_low": -0.499242719862586, "coef": -0.04611999977180357, "p": 0.8412450918119087, "se": 0.22999868320510053, "t": -0.2005228861709448, "term": "log_tweets" } ] }Hashes SHA-256 e metadados de reprodução
- Digests dos dados
ref_panel24455721da48467cdc22a318c77ed00880996e402036d9341030b977c35ff307- sha256 do resultado
47c0f5ad84a6a812cbdf96abd26178620d57fdc39e3ef97f1dee9f9c5c964cb3
- 22Turno do modelo
call_55802d32referenceFim:tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cacheChamadas pedidassubmit_answer(meta-ferramenta){ "answer": "Estimativa (infer.ols): coef.treated_post = 7,097. Reference path transcribed from the item's own estimation script.", "caveats": [], "figure_refs": [ "call_e2c5132e:coef.treated_post" ] }
- 23Guardaresposta aceita
- Números encontrados
- 7,097
- Sem lastro
- —
- Não citados
- —
1 nova(s) tentativa(s) restante(s) - 24Resposta
Estimativa (infer.ols): coef.treated_post = 7,097. Reference path transcribed from the item's own estimation script.
Figuras citadas:call_e2c5132e:coef.treated_post· Parada:answeredFigura da resposta:call_e2c5132e:coef.treated_post= 7,097247.097237775872289(se 2,05872.058699350153437) - 25Pontuação#0resposta com lastropassouobrigatória
every number backed - 26Pontuação#1figura da resposta próximapassouobrigatória
7.097237776 in [3.06218705, 11.1322885]? - 27Pontuação#2figura da resposta próximapassouregistrada
7.097237776 vs 7.097237775872275 - 28Pontuação#3figura da resposta próximapassouregistrada
2.05869935 vs 2.058699350153441
Épocas × verificações
| # | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Época 1 | passou | passou | passou | passou |
Tentativas
Cada tentativa é seu próprio arquivo e é publicada; só a última de cada época é pontuada.
- época 1, tentativa 1passoupontuada(exibindo)
Downloads desta tarefa
b87386e53d593b422fa33c8fde049586f90cb6f601ecd3d63c8ca3f641c7b576O hash de um zip é só de transporte: o que ancora a integridade é o RUN_SHA256SUMS que vai dentro dele, cópia exata do SHA256SUMS da execução.
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