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Tarefa crb_papers.q023

crb_papersagentT2publicépoca 1, tentativa 1Execução: 20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5

Veredito

passouPassou em todas as verificações obrigatórias.

Família do método (das chamadas de ferramentas): Regressão linear por mínimos quadrados ordinários (MQO) · infer.ols (did · OLS on the interaction of a group indicator and a period indicator (2x2 difference in differences))

Calculado pelo agente
coef.DID =-0,0908634-0.0908634274898238
Coefficient on DID in the regression of democracy_mcmc
via infer.ols (call_c334014c)
Valor esperado (gabarito)
coef.DID =[-0.24952151092588254,0.06779465594623585]
Como foi validado
2 de 2 verificações obrigatórias aprovadas
interval · [-0.24952151092588254, 0.06779465594623585]

Pergunta feita ao analista

By how much did the State Democracy Index change from 2002 to 2004 in states that newly gained unified Republican control in 2003 versus states that did not?

Resposta

Estimativa (infer.ols): coef.DID = -0,09086. Reference path transcribed from the item's own estimation script.

Como o agente resolveu e como foi validado

Resumo passo a passo do que o agente executou, por que o caminho está correto e como cada verificação conferiu o resultado.

  1. 1Preparação da base de dados
    ds_0012— | Variable Name | Description | | --- | --- | | index | Sequential row identifier from the file export; included for reference and not used as a substantive measure. | | Republican | Binary indicator (0/1) for unified Republican control of state government in a given year. Equals 1 when the governorship and both legislative chambers were held by Republicans; 0 otherwise (including divided or other control). Compiled from state partisan balance data with updates from legislative tracking organizations. | | state | U.S. state name (50 states). | | year | Calendar year of observation (2000–2016). | | democracy_mcmc | Continuous State Democracy Index score for the state-year, estimated via Bayesian factor analysis (MCMC) from 51 state-level indicators of electoral rules, administrative performance, districting metrics, and related practices. The scale is approximately standardized across the panel (values can be negative or positive around zero); higher values indicate stronger electoral-democracy performance. Sources feeding the indicators include election administration data (e.g., MIT Election Lab), legislative policy compilations (e.g., NCSL), gerrymandering diagnostics, and measures of policy–opinion congruence. | Dataset Context: This file is a state–year panel that assembles administrative records, policy codings, and quantitative diagnostics to summarize how U.S. states structure and administer electoral democracy. The period 2000–2016 spans consequential developments in state election law and administration, including reforms that expanded access (e.g., early voting, online and same‑day registration, and the beginnings of automatic voter registration late in the period) and policies that increased participation costs for some voters (e.g., voter ID requirements). It also covers the 2010 redistricting cycle and subsequent evaluations of district plans using established gerrymandering metrics. During these years, federal–state relations affecting elections shifted as well, including changes to Voting Rights Act oversight after 2013, which altered how and where states implemented election-law changes. The State Democracy Index (reported here as democracy_mcmc) is constructed by combining 51 indicators into a single latent score using Bayesian factor analysis designed for mixed data types (binary, ordinal, and continuous). Indicator families include: election access rules (registration and voting modalities), administrative performance (e.g., wait times, provisional ballot handling, data completeness), post‑election audit requirements, districting fairness diagnostics (efficiency gap, partisan symmetry, declination, compactness), and measures of policy–opinion alignment. Indicator inputs draw on sources such as the MIT Election Lab’s compilations of election administration statistics, the National Conference of State Legislatures’ inventories of state election laws, quantitative assessments of district plans, and state policy–opinion datasets. Scores are standardized to facilitate comparison across states and years, with higher values reflecting stronger performance on these electoral-democracy dimensions. The unified-party-control variable is built from long‑running state partisan balance datasets and contemporary updates that track which party simultaneously held the governorship and majorities in both legislative chambers in each year. Together with state names and calendar years, these fields allow analysts to align institutional configurations with contemporaneous features of election law, administration, and districting captured in the index.
    ref_panel
    ref_post
    ref_pre
    ref_switch
    Transformação "select" aplicada à base "ref_switch" (833 → 833 linhas). {"columns":["Republican","state","year","democracy_mcmc"]}
    Transformação "dropna" aplicada à base "ref_switch" (833 → 833 linhas). {"columns":["state","year","Republican","democracy_mcmc"]}
    Transformação "derive" aplicada à base "ref_switch" (833 → 833 linhas). {"args":{"by":["state"],"column":"Republican","order":["year"],"periods":1},"name":"r_prev","op":"lag"}
    Transformação "filter" aplicada à base "ref_switch" (833 → 27 linhas). {"query":"Republican == 1 and r_prev == 0"}
    Transformação "collapse" aplicada à base "ref_switch" (27 → 24 linhas). {"aggs":[{"column":"year","fn":"min","name":"syear"}],"by":["state"]}
    Transformação "select" aplicada à base "ref_pre" (833 → 833 linhas). {"columns":["Republican","state","year","democracy_mcmc"]}
    Transformação "dropna" aplicada à base "ref_pre" (833 → 833 linhas). {"columns":["state","year","Republican","democracy_mcmc"]}
    Transformação "filter" aplicada à base "ref_pre" (833 → 49 linhas). {"query":"year == 2002"}
    Transformação "select" aplicada à base "ref_pre" (49 → 49 linhas). {"columns":["state","Republican"]}
    Transformação "rename" aplicada à base "ref_pre" (49 → 49 linhas). {"map":{"Republican":"r_pre"}}
    Transformação "select" aplicada à base "ref_post" (833 → 833 linhas). {"columns":["Republican","state","year","democracy_mcmc"]}
    Transformação "dropna" aplicada à base "ref_post" (833 → 833 linhas). {"columns":["state","year","Republican","democracy_mcmc"]}
    Transformação "filter" aplicada à base "ref_post" (833 → 49 linhas). {"query":"year == 2004"}
    Transformação "select" aplicada à base "ref_post" (49 → 49 linhas). {"columns":["state","Republican"]}
    Transformação "rename" aplicada à base "ref_post" (49 → 49 linhas). {"map":{"Republican":"r_post"}}
    Transformação "select" aplicada à base "ref_panel" (833 → 833 linhas). {"columns":["Republican","state","year","democracy_mcmc"]}
    Transformação "dropna" aplicada à base "ref_panel" (833 → 833 linhas). {"columns":["state","year","Republican","democracy_mcmc"]}
    Transformação "filter" aplicada à base "ref_panel" (833 → 98 linhas). {"query":"year in [2002, 2004]"}
    Transformação "merge" aplicada à base "ref_panel" (98 → 98 linhas). {"how":"left","on":["state"],"with":"ref_switch"}
    Transformação "merge" aplicada à base "ref_panel" (98 → 98 linhas). {"how":"inner","on":["state"],"with":"ref_pre"}
    Transformação "merge" aplicada à base "ref_panel" (98 → 98 linhas). {"how":"inner","on":["state"],"with":"ref_post"}
    Transformação "filter" aplicada à base "ref_panel" (98 → 76 linhas). {"query":"r_pre == 0 and ((syear == 2003 and r_post == 1) or r_post == 0)"}
    Transformação "derive" aplicada à base "ref_panel" (76 → 76 linhas). {"args":{"cmp":"eq","column":"r_post","value":1},"name":"Tgroup","op":"indicator"}
    Transformação "derive" aplicada à base "ref_panel" (76 → 76 linhas). {"args":{"cmp":"eq","column":"year","value":2004},"name":"Post","op":"indicator"}
    Transformação "derive" aplicada à base "ref_panel" (76 → 76 linhas). {"args":{"columns":["Tgroup","Post"]},"name":"DID","op":"interaction"}
  2. 2Chamada que gerou a resposta finalinfer.ols(Regressão linear por mínimos quadrados ordinários (MQO))citada na respostacoincide com a referência
    Ver chamada call_c334014c nos detalhes

    sm.OLS(y, add_constant([Tgroup, Post, DID])).fit(cov_type='cluster', groups=state) (CR1 errors with statsmodels' default G/(G-1)·(N-1)/(N-K) correction)

    Por que este é o caminho de referência: sm.OLS(y, add_constant([Tgroup, Post, DID])).fit(cov_type='cluster', groups=state) (CR1 errors with statsmodels' default G/(G-1)·(N-1)/(N-K) correction)
    Argumentos principais
    cluster:
    "state"
    controls:
    ["Tgroup","Post"]
    dataset:
    "ref_panel"
    intercept:
    true
    level:
    0,950.95
    se:
    "HC1"
    x:
    ["DID"]
    y:
    "democracy_mcmc"
    Resultado calculado
    • coef.DID = -0,0908634 -0.0908634274898238
      Coefficient on DID in the regression of democracy_mcmc
    Diagnósticos: n_obs = 7676 (observations used) · k = 44 (parameters estimated, fixed-effect dummies included) · r2 = 0,04421560.04421557708787305 · df_resid = 7272 · se_type = "cluster" (cluster-robust standard errors (CR1) by 'state') · n_clusters = 3838 (38 clusters of 'state'; below about 40, cluster-robust errors are too small — confirm with infer.randomization_inference or a wild cluster bootstrap)
  3. 3Conferência de lastro e resposta final

    Todos os 1 números escritos na resposta foram conferidos contra as ferramentas e o enunciado (nenhum número sem lastro).

    Números encontrados: -0,09086
    Figuras citadas: call_c334014c:coef.DID
    • #0resposta com lastro
      every number traced to a tool call or the question
    • #1figura da resposta próxima
      CRB estimate_within_solution_ci: the answer figure inside the gold 95% interval effect ± 1.96·|SE| of source crb_papers.q023.gold (closed, evaluate_result.py; no --auto-rescale)
    • #2figura da resposta próxima
      replication cell: the gold effect to rel 1e-6 (abs floor 1e-6·SE); never required
    • #3figura da resposta próxima
      replication cell: the gold SE to rel 1e-6; never required

Aprofundamento técnico para especialistas

Acesso direto às fontes primárias, tabela formal de verificações, comparação de argumentos, trajetória completa com prompts brutos e somas SHA-256.

Valores esperados e de onde vêm

crb_papers.q023.gold

Fonte
CausalReasoningBenchmark, causal_queries.json, index 23 (revision edd0fe1c1d1c)
Tipo
benchmark_gold
Localização
causal_queries.json['23'].effect and .standard_error
Trecho
index 23: effect -0.0908634, standard_error 0.080948
Valor como publicado
-0.09086342748982335
Erro-padrão como publicado
0.08094800175309143
Valor
-0,0908634-0.09086342748982335 (se 0,0809480.08094800175309143)
Conferido por
arquivo do benchmark · Read from the catalog at the pinned revision by scripts/freeze_crb_papers.py; the catalog states the value its estimation script prints.
Endereço
https://huggingface.co/datasets/syrgkanislab/CausalReasoningBenchmark/resolve/edd0fe1c1d1c5c0a4f0e3e67a50481ac679fb888/causal_queries.json
Licença
MIT
  • #2 figura da resposta próxima: -0,0908634-0.09086342748982335 · relativa 0.000001 · absoluta 8.094800175309143e-8
  • #3 figura da resposta próxima: 0,0809480.08094800175309143 · relativa 0.000001 · absoluta 8.094800175309143e-8

crb_papers.q023.script

Fonte
CausalReasoningBenchmark reference estimation script for index 23
Tipo
software
Localização
solutions/research_papers/DiD/Grumbach_2023/question_2/estimation.py
Valor
—
Conferido por
arquivo do benchmark · sha256 of the script's 3253 bytes at the pinned revision; the reference path of the item is a transcription of this script into typed transforms and tool calls (never executed here).
Implementação
independente da ferramenta
sha256 da cópia lida
0588cb491837cd73bf22e1c4d5cd874a02113d9b681d69c73fa44caa5d692eb2 (identifica a cópia lida, não um arquivo canônico)
Endereço
https://huggingface.co/datasets/syrgkanislab/CausalReasoningBenchmark/resolve/edd0fe1c1d1c5c0a4f0e3e67a50481ac679fb888/solutions/research_papers/DiD/Grumbach_2023/question_2/estimation.py
Licença
MIT
    Especificação técnica do gabarito

    CausalReasoningBenchmark gold at the pinned revision: causal_queries.json effect and standard_error (the value the item's estimation.py prints), scored as evaluate_result.py scores estimate_within_solution_ci

    Verificações

    Cada verificação, o que esperava, o que observou e a chamada que leu
    #VerificaçãoObrigatóriaResultadoEsperadoObservadoTolerânciaFonteChamada
    0
    resposta com lastro
    every number traced to a tool call or the question
    every number backed
    obrigatóriapassou0 sem lastro0 sem lastro[]———
    1
    figura da resposta próxima
    CRB estimate_within_solution_ci: the answer figure inside the gold 95% interval effect ± 1.96·|SE| of source crb_papers.q023.gold (closed, evaluate_result.py; no --auto-rescale)
    -0.09086342749 in [-0.2495215109, 0.06779465595]?
    obrigatóriapassou[-0.24952151092588254,0.06779465594623585]-0,0908634-0.0908634274898238interval · [-0.24952151092588254, 0.06779465594623585]—call_c334014c
    2
    figura da resposta próxima
    replication cell: the gold effect to rel 1e-6 (abs floor 1e-6·SE); never required
    -0.09086342749 vs -0.09086342748982335
    registradapassou-0,0908634-0.09086342748982335-0,0908634-0.0908634274898238relativa 0.000001 · absoluta 8.094800175309143e-8crb_papers.q023.goldcall_c334014c
    3
    figura da resposta próxima
    replication cell: the gold SE to rel 1e-6; never required
    0.08094800175 vs 0.08094800175309143
    registradapassou0,0809480.080948001753091430,0809480.08094800175309347relativa 0.000001 · absoluta 8.094800175309143e-8crb_papers.q023.goldcall_c334014c

    Caminho de referência e caminho do agente

    A chamada de referência ao lado da chamada que deu a resposta, argumento por argumento.

    caminho de referência do item · benchmark_script

    Referência: infer.olsChamada do agente: infer.ols (call_c334014c)igual
    Argumentos da referência e do agente
    ArgumentoReferênciaAgente
    cluster"state""state"igual
    controls["Tgroup","Post"]["Tgroup","Post"]igual
    dataset"ref_panel""ref_panel"igual
    fe—[]não fixado pela referência
    intercept—truenão fixado pela referência
    level—0,950.95não fixado pela referência
    se—"HC1"não fixado pela referência
    subset——não fixado pela referência
    weights——não fixado pela referência
    x["DID"]["DID"]igual
    y"democracy_mcmc""democracy_mcmc"igual

    Trajetória

    Cada evento na ordem em que aconteceu: turnos do modelo, chamadas de ferramentas, guardas, transformações e pontuação.

    1. 0Início

      By how much did the State Democracy Index change from 2002 to 2004 in states that newly gained unified Republican control in 2003 versus states that did not?

      ds_0012 (agent)

      | Variable Name | Description | | --- | --- | | index | Sequential row identifier from the file export; included for reference and not used as a substantive measure. | | Republican | Binary indicator (0/1) for unified Republican control of state government in a given year. Equals 1 when the governorship and both legislative chambers were held by Republicans; 0 otherwise (including divided or other control). Compiled from state partisan balance data with updates from legislative tracking organizations. | | state | U.S. state name (50 states). | | year | Calendar year of observation (2000–2016). | | democracy_mcmc | Continuous State Democracy Index score for the state-year, estimated via Bayesian factor analysis (MCMC) from 51 state-level indicators of electoral rules, administrative performance, districting metrics, and related practices. The scale is approximately standardized across the panel (values can be negative or positive around zero); higher values indicate stronger electoral-democracy performance. Sources feeding the indicators include election administration data (e.g., MIT Election Lab), legislative policy compilations (e.g., NCSL), gerrymandering diagnostics, and measures of policy–opinion congruence. | Dataset Context: This file is a state–year panel that assembles administrative records, policy codings, and quantitative diagnostics to summarize how U.S. states structure and administer electoral democracy. The period 2000–2016 spans consequential developments in state election law and administration, including reforms that expanded access (e.g., early voting, online and same‑day registration, and the beginnings of automatic voter registration late in the period) and policies that increased participation costs for some voters (e.g., voter ID requirements). It also covers the 2010 redistricting cycle and subsequent evaluations of district plans using established gerrymandering metrics. During these years, federal–state relations affecting elections shifted as well, including changes to Voting Rights Act oversight after 2013, which altered how and where states implemented election-law changes. The State Democracy Index (reported here as democracy_mcmc) is constructed by combining 51 indicators into a single latent score using Bayesian factor analysis designed for mixed data types (binary, ordinal, and continuous). Indicator families include: election access rules (registration and voting modalities), administrative performance (e.g., wait times, provisional ballot handling, data completeness), post‑election audit requirements, districting fairness diagnostics (efficiency gap, partisan symmetry, declination, compactness), and measures of policy–opinion alignment. Indicator inputs draw on sources such as the MIT Election Lab’s compilations of election administration statistics, the National Conference of State Legislatures’ inventories of state election laws, quantitative assessments of district plans, and state policy–opinion datasets. Scores are standardized to facilitate comparison across states and years, with higher values reflecting stronger performance on these electoral-democracy dimensions. The unified-party-control variable is built from long‑running state partisan balance datasets and contemporary updates that track which party simultaneously held the governorship and majorities in both legislative chambers in each year. Together with state names and calendar years, these fields allow analysts to align institutional configurations with contemporaneous features of election law, administration, and districting captured in the index.

      file c41bdacd62be74293e7a28a6c5d82a460ccf5f046e080a7443363bc59ff73fb0 · frame —
      ref_panel (reference)
      file c41bdacd62be74293e7a28a6c5d82a460ccf5f046e080a7443363bc59ff73fb0 · frame —
      1. select {"columns":["Republican","state","year","democracy_mcmc"]}
      2. dropna {"columns":["state","year","Republican","democracy_mcmc"]}
      3. filter {"query":"year in [2002, 2004]"}
      4. merge {"how":"left","on":["state"],"with":"ref_switch"}
      5. merge {"how":"inner","on":["state"],"with":"ref_pre"}
      6. merge {"how":"inner","on":["state"],"with":"ref_post"}
      7. filter {"query":"r_pre == 0 and ((syear == 2003 and r_post == 1) or r_post == 0)"}
      8. derive {"args":{"cmp":"eq","column":"r_post","value":1},"name":"Tgroup","op":"indicator"}
      9. derive {"args":{"cmp":"eq","column":"year","value":2004},"name":"Post","op":"indicator"}
      10. derive {"args":{"columns":["Tgroup","Post"]},"name":"DID","op":"interaction"}
      ref_post (reference)
      file c41bdacd62be74293e7a28a6c5d82a460ccf5f046e080a7443363bc59ff73fb0 · frame —
      1. select {"columns":["Republican","state","year","democracy_mcmc"]}
      2. dropna {"columns":["state","year","Republican","democracy_mcmc"]}
      3. filter {"query":"year == 2004"}
      4. select {"columns":["state","Republican"]}
      5. rename {"map":{"Republican":"r_post"}}
      ref_pre (reference)
      file c41bdacd62be74293e7a28a6c5d82a460ccf5f046e080a7443363bc59ff73fb0 · frame —
      1. select {"columns":["Republican","state","year","democracy_mcmc"]}
      2. dropna {"columns":["state","year","Republican","democracy_mcmc"]}
      3. filter {"query":"year == 2002"}
      4. select {"columns":["state","Republican"]}
      5. rename {"map":{"Republican":"r_pre"}}
      ref_switch (reference)
      file c41bdacd62be74293e7a28a6c5d82a460ccf5f046e080a7443363bc59ff73fb0 · frame —
      1. select {"columns":["Republican","state","year","democracy_mcmc"]}
      2. dropna {"columns":["state","year","Republican","democracy_mcmc"]}
      3. derive {"args":{"by":["state"],"column":"Republican","order":["year"],"periods":1},"name":"r_prev","op":"lag"}
      4. filter {"query":"Republican == 1 and r_prev == 0"}
      5. collapse {"aggs":[{"column":"year","fn":"min","name":"syear"}],"by":["state"]}
    2. 1Transformação
      ref_switch · select {"columns":["Republican","state","year","democracy_mcmc"]}
      833 → 833 linhas
      Frame antes → depois: 5bc3cfb33d70 → 5bc3cfb33d70
    3. 2Transformação
      ref_switch · dropna {"columns":["state","year","Republican","democracy_mcmc"]}
      833 → 833 linhas
      Frame antes → depois: 5bc3cfb33d70 → 5bc3cfb33d70
    4. 3Transformação
      ref_switch · derive {"args":{"by":["state"],"column":"Republican","order":["year"],"periods":1},"name":"r_prev","op":"lag"}
      833 → 833 linhas
      Frame antes → depois: 5bc3cfb33d70 → abbd3d6b245e
    5. 4Transformação
      ref_switch · filter {"query":"Republican == 1 and r_prev == 0"}
      833 → 27 linhas
      Frame antes → depois: abbd3d6b245e → c56928f5bd8e
    6. 5Transformação
      ref_switch · collapse {"aggs":[{"column":"year","fn":"min","name":"syear"}],"by":["state"]}
      27 → 24 linhas
      Frame antes → depois: c56928f5bd8e → 08613c2c5326
    7. 6Transformação
      ref_pre · select {"columns":["Republican","state","year","democracy_mcmc"]}
      833 → 833 linhas
      Frame antes → depois: 5bc3cfb33d70 → 5bc3cfb33d70
    8. 7Transformação
      ref_pre · dropna {"columns":["state","year","Republican","democracy_mcmc"]}
      833 → 833 linhas
      Frame antes → depois: 5bc3cfb33d70 → 5bc3cfb33d70
    9. 8Transformação
      ref_pre · filter {"query":"year == 2002"}
      833 → 49 linhas
      Frame antes → depois: 5bc3cfb33d70 → 0f3725d2d987
    10. 9Transformação
      ref_pre · select {"columns":["state","Republican"]}
      49 → 49 linhas
      Frame antes → depois: 0f3725d2d987 → 6f0fae04313e
    11. 10Transformação
      ref_pre · rename {"map":{"Republican":"r_pre"}}
      49 → 49 linhas
      Frame antes → depois: 6f0fae04313e → 906714a592f6
    12. 11Transformação
      ref_post · select {"columns":["Republican","state","year","democracy_mcmc"]}
      833 → 833 linhas
      Frame antes → depois: 5bc3cfb33d70 → 5bc3cfb33d70
    13. 12Transformação
      ref_post · dropna {"columns":["state","year","Republican","democracy_mcmc"]}
      833 → 833 linhas
      Frame antes → depois: 5bc3cfb33d70 → 5bc3cfb33d70
    14. 13Transformação
      ref_post · filter {"query":"year == 2004"}
      833 → 49 linhas
      Frame antes → depois: 5bc3cfb33d70 → b42f69e0cbb1
    15. 14Transformação
      ref_post · select {"columns":["state","Republican"]}
      49 → 49 linhas
      Frame antes → depois: b42f69e0cbb1 → 6f91e0a276f6
    16. 15Transformação
      ref_post · rename {"map":{"Republican":"r_post"}}
      49 → 49 linhas
      Frame antes → depois: 6f91e0a276f6 → 9951234bb04f
    17. 16Transformação
      ref_panel · select {"columns":["Republican","state","year","democracy_mcmc"]}
      833 → 833 linhas
      Frame antes → depois: 5bc3cfb33d70 → 5bc3cfb33d70
    18. 17Transformação
      ref_panel · dropna {"columns":["state","year","Republican","democracy_mcmc"]}
      833 → 833 linhas
      Frame antes → depois: 5bc3cfb33d70 → 5bc3cfb33d70
    19. 18Transformação
      ref_panel · filter {"query":"year in [2002, 2004]"}
      833 → 98 linhas
      Frame antes → depois: 5bc3cfb33d70 → c076c232193a
    20. 19Transformação
      ref_panel · merge {"how":"left","on":["state"],"with":"ref_switch"}
      98 → 98 linhas
      Frame antes → depois: c076c232193a → 403573f3118a
    21. 20Transformação
      ref_panel · merge {"how":"inner","on":["state"],"with":"ref_pre"}
      98 → 98 linhas
      Frame antes → depois: 403573f3118a → f152f859ec4f
    22. 21Transformação
      ref_panel · merge {"how":"inner","on":["state"],"with":"ref_post"}
      98 → 98 linhas
      Frame antes → depois: f152f859ec4f → e47a2569062e
    23. 22Transformação
      ref_panel · filter {"query":"r_pre == 0 and ((syear == 2003 and r_post == 1) or r_post == 0)"}
      98 → 76 linhas
      Frame antes → depois: e47a2569062e → 70f03d153697
    24. 23Transformação
      ref_panel · derive {"args":{"cmp":"eq","column":"r_post","value":1},"name":"Tgroup","op":"indicator"}
      76 → 76 linhas
      Frame antes → depois: 70f03d153697 → 1d87793fdb7b
    25. 24Transformação
      ref_panel · derive {"args":{"cmp":"eq","column":"year","value":2004},"name":"Post","op":"indicator"}
      76 → 76 linhas
      Frame antes → depois: 1d87793fdb7b → e2d4b73781d5
    26. 25Transformação
      ref_panel · derive {"args":{"columns":["Tgroup","Post"]},"name":"DID","op":"interaction"}
      76 → 76 linhas
      Frame antes → depois: e2d4b73781d5 → 71d34ad836af
    27. 26Turno do modelo
      call_f778390areferenceFim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache
      Texto visível

      sm.OLS(y, add_constant([Tgroup, Post, DID])).fit(cov_type='cluster', groups=state) (CR1 errors with statsmodels' default G/(G-1)·(N-1)/(N-K) correction)

      Chamadas pedidas
      • infer.ols
        {
          "cluster": "state",
          "controls": [
            "Tgroup",
            "Post"
          ],
          "dataset": "ref_panel",
          "x": [
            "DID"
          ],
          "y": "democracy_mcmc"
        }
    28. 27Ferramenta
      infer.ols— Regressão linear por mínimos quadrados ordinários (MQO)v0.1.0call_c334014cdecidido pelo modeloreexecutável

      Motivo: sm.OLS(y, add_constant([Tgroup, Post, DID])).fit(cov_type='cluster', groups=state) (CR1 errors with statsmodels' default G/(G-1)·(N-1)/(N-K) correction)

      Argumentos
      {
        "cluster": "state",
        "controls": [
          "Tgroup",
          "Post"
        ],
        "dataset": "ref_panel",
        "fe": [],
        "intercept": true,
        "level": 0.95,
        "se": "HC1",
        "subset": null,
        "weights": null,
        "x": [
          "DID"
        ],
        "y": "democracy_mcmc"
      }
      Figuras call_c334014c
      ChaveValorValor brutoErro-padrãoIC
      coef.DID
      Coefficient on DID in the regression of democracy_mcmc
      -0,0908634-0.09086342748982380,0809480.08094800175309347-0,25488 – 0,0731528
      Diagnósticos
      • n_obs = 7676 (observations used)
      • k = 44 (parameters estimated, fixed-effect dummies included)
      • r2 = 0,04421560.04421557708787305
      • df_resid = 7272
      • se_type = "cluster" (cluster-robust standard errors (CR1) by 'state')
      • n_clusters = 3838 (38 clusters of 'state'; below about 40, cluster-robust errors are too small — confirm with infer.randomization_inference or a wild cluster bootstrap)
      Derivação matemática e pressupostos
      coef.DID
      1. Coeficiente de DID na regressão por mínimos quadrados ordinários de democracy_mcmc.→ -0,0908634 (-0.0908634274898238)
      2. Erro-padrão robusto por conglomerado (CR1): a raiz da variância estimada do coeficiente.ep = √V_jj→ 0,080948 (0.08094800175309347)
      3. Intervalo de 95% de confiança: a estimativa mais ou menos o valor crítico da distribuição t de Student com 37 graus de liberdade vezes o erro-padrão.IC = β ± c · ep
      Pressupostos do estimador
      • the conditional mean of the outcome is linear in the regressors
      • errors are independent across clusters of 'state' and may be correlated within them
      Tabelas (1)
      {
        "coefficients": [
          {
            "ci_high": 0.5492834934481965,
            "ci_low": 0.11924866252443975,
            "coef": 0.33426607798631813,
            "p": 0.0032270892983367184,
            "se": 0.1061189494014959,
            "t": 3.1499188398637328,
            "term": "Intercept"
          },
          {
            "ci_high": 0.07315280355956132,
            "ci_low": -0.2548796585392089,
            "coef": -0.0908634274898238,
            "p": 0.2688850665170823,
            "se": 0.08094800175309347,
            "t": -1.1224912971536252,
            "term": "DID"
          },
          {
            "ci_high": 0.7261191945218577,
            "ci_low": -1.4772253082583748,
            "coef": -0.3755530568682585,
            "p": 0.49405464702327406,
            "se": 0.5437155016079482,
            "t": -0.6907161111971661,
            "term": "Tgroup"
          },
          {
            "ci_high": 0.010704225035495327,
            "ci_low": -0.17363042980761256,
            "coef": -0.08146310238605863,
            "p": 0.08149797844768684,
            "se": 0.045487943077118155,
            "t": -1.7908724131128517,
            "term": "Post"
          }
        ]
      }
      Hashes SHA-256 e metadados de reprodução
      Digests dos dados
      ref_panel 71d34ad836af7fee0a177ad2e5a28908b4c02f8b0b81f21aa933f5114bcc3544
      sha256 do resultado
      985310214c76aadefdada70088328e15bfdafdf039849a15918483654ebf4f7d
    29. 28Turno do modelo
      call_46fea0c3referenceFim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache
      Chamadas pedidas
      • submit_answer (meta-ferramenta)
        {
          "answer": "Estimativa (infer.ols): coef.DID = -0,09086. Reference path transcribed from the item's own estimation script.",
          "caveats": [],
          "figure_refs": [
            "call_c334014c:coef.DID"
          ]
        }
    30. 29Guarda
      resposta aceita
      Números encontrados
      -0,09086
      Sem lastro
      —
      Não citados
      —
      1 nova(s) tentativa(s) restante(s)
    31. 30Resposta

      Estimativa (infer.ols): coef.DID = -0,09086. Reference path transcribed from the item's own estimation script.

      Figuras citadas: call_c334014c:coef.DID · Parada: answered
      Figura da resposta: call_c334014c:coef.DID = -0,0908634-0.0908634274898238 (se 0,0809480.08094800175309347)
    32. 31Pontuação
      #0resposta com lastropassouobrigatóriaevery number backed
    33. 32Pontuação
      #1figura da resposta próximapassouobrigatória-0.09086342749 in [-0.2495215109, 0.06779465595]?
    34. 33Pontuação
      #2figura da resposta próximapassouregistrada-0.09086342749 vs -0.09086342748982335
    35. 34Pontuação
      #3figura da resposta próximapassouregistrada0.08094800175 vs 0.08094800175309143

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