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Tarefa crb_papers.q029

crb_papersagentT2publicépoca 1, tentativa 1Execução: 20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5

Veredito

passouPassou em todas as verificações obrigatórias.

Família do método (das chamadas de ferramentas): Regressão linear por mínimos quadrados ordinários (MQO) · infer.ols (did · OLS on the interaction of a group indicator and a period indicator (2x2 difference in differences))

Calculado pelo agente
coef.g_post =0,8152720.8152716551072007
Coefficient on g_post in the regression of nat_rate_ord
via infer.ols (call_a45fb98d)
Valor esperado (gabarito)
coef.g_post =[-0.09401291005604573,1.7245562202704523]
Como foi validado
2 de 2 verificações obrigatórias aprovadas
interval · [-0.09401291005604573, 1.7245562202704523]

Pergunta feita ao analista

For municipalities that first moved to council-based naturalization decisions in 2006 or 2009, how much did ordinary naturalization rates change from 1991 to 2009 relative to municipalities that never changed their local decision regime?

Resposta

Estimativa (infer.ols): coef.g_post = 0,8153. Reference path transcribed from the item's own estimation script.

Como o agente resolveu e como foi validado

Resumo passo a passo do que o agente executou, por que o caminho está correto e como cada verificação conferiu o resultado.

  1. 1Preparação da base de dados
    ds_0015— | Variable Name | Description | | --- | --- | | bfs | Swiss Federal Statistical Office (BFS) municipality code: a stable numeric identifier for each municipality in the panel. | | year | Calendar year of the observation (1991–2009). Institutional status is referenced as of January 1 of the given year, and annual rates are computed for the same year. | | nat_rate_ord | Ordinary naturalization rate (percent). Computed as the number of ordinary naturalizations recorded during the year divided by the stock of foreign residents who met statutory eligibility at the start of the year in the same municipality, multiplied by 100. Ordinary naturalizations refer to the standard pathway (as opposed to federally handled “facilitated” cases). | | indirect | Local decision procedure in place on January 1: 1 if applications were decided by the elected municipal council (representative/indirect democracy); 0 if applications were decided by citizens in a local vote (direct democracy). | Dataset Context: This dataset is an annual municipality–year panel for Switzerland that spans a period of institutional change in how local authorities decide on citizenship applications. Switzerland’s “triple citizenship” system assigns a central role to municipalities in evaluating and deciding ordinary naturalization requests. During the 1990s and 2000s, municipalities used different decision procedures: in some, citizens voted on applications (often at a citizens’ assembly and, historically in a few places, by ballot); in others, elected municipal councils rendered the decisions. A series of Swiss Federal Court rulings in 2003–2005 curtailed secret-ballot referendums for naturalizations and required municipalities to provide formal justifications for rejections. Several cantons subsequently updated their laws, and many municipalities revised or formalized their procedures, frequently shifting decision authority to municipal councils. The indicator in this file captures, for each municipality and year, which procedure was in force as of January 1. The panel combines two types of information. First, administrative registers from the Swiss Federal Statistical Office (PETRA: Foreign Population Structure and Migration Statistics) are used to derive annual ordinary naturalization rates. These rates are constructed as ordinary naturalizations completed within a year divided by the number of foreign residents who met the legal eligibility criteria at the start of that year, providing a comparable percentage measure across municipalities and over time. Second, the coding of local decision procedures relies on a nationwide survey of municipal head secretaries and systematic compilation of cantonal regulations and court decisions. The measurement convention aligns the institutional status to January 1 to enhance comparability across municipalities, recognizing that formal switches may occur during a calendar year. Ordinary naturalizations represent the standard route to citizenship and, in the study period, typically occurred after lengthy processing that could extend several years from initial application to final local vote. Facilitated naturalizations—handled centrally under federal law (for example, for certain spouses of Swiss citizens)—are not included in the numerator of the ordinary naturalization rate. The resulting dataset provides a consistent view of local institutions and annual naturalization activity across more than a decade and a half, covering the pre- and post-reform environment in which many municipalities updated their decision-making arrangements.
    ref_first
    ref_max
    ref_panel
    ref_years
    Transformação "select" aplicada à base "ref_first" (22971 → 22971 linhas). {"columns":["bfs","year","nat_rate_ord","indirect"]}
    Transformação "dropna" aplicada à base "ref_first" (22971 → 22971 linhas). {"columns":["bfs","year","nat_rate_ord"]}
    Transformação "filter" aplicada à base "ref_first" (22971 → 7836 linhas). {"query":"indirect == 1"}
    Transformação "collapse" aplicada à base "ref_first" (7836 → 797 linhas). {"aggs":[{"column":"year","fn":"min","name":"sw"}],"by":["bfs"]}
    Transformação "select" aplicada à base "ref_years" (22971 → 22971 linhas). {"columns":["bfs","year","nat_rate_ord","indirect"]}
    Transformação "dropna" aplicada à base "ref_years" (22971 → 22971 linhas). {"columns":["bfs","year","nat_rate_ord"]}
    Transformação "filter" aplicada à base "ref_years" (22971 → 2418 linhas). {"query":"year in [1991, 2009]"}
    Transformação "collapse" aplicada à base "ref_years" (2418 → 2418 linhas). {"aggs":[{"column":"nat_rate_ord","fn":"count","name":"n"}],"by":["bfs","year"]}
    Transformação "collapse" aplicada à base "ref_years" (2418 → 1209 linhas). {"aggs":[{"column":"n","fn":"count","name":"nyears"}],"by":["bfs"]}
    Transformação "select" aplicada à base "ref_max" (22971 → 22971 linhas). {"columns":["bfs","year","nat_rate_ord","indirect"]}
    Transformação "dropna" aplicada à base "ref_max" (22971 → 22971 linhas). {"columns":["bfs","year","nat_rate_ord"]}
    Transformação "collapse" aplicada à base "ref_max" (22971 → 1209 linhas). {"aggs":[{"column":"indirect","fn":"max","name":"imax"}],"by":["bfs"]}
    Transformação "select" aplicada à base "ref_panel" (22971 → 22971 linhas). {"columns":["bfs","year","nat_rate_ord","indirect"]}
    Transformação "dropna" aplicada à base "ref_panel" (22971 → 22971 linhas). {"columns":["bfs","year","nat_rate_ord"]}
    Transformação "filter" aplicada à base "ref_panel" (22971 → 2418 linhas). {"query":"year in [1991, 2009]"}
    Transformação "merge" aplicada à base "ref_panel" (2418 → 2418 linhas). {"how":"left","on":["bfs"],"with":"ref_first"}
    Transformação "merge" aplicada à base "ref_panel" (2418 → 2418 linhas). {"how":"left","on":["bfs"],"with":"ref_years"}
    Transformação "merge" aplicada à base "ref_panel" (2418 → 2418 linhas). {"how":"left","on":["bfs"],"with":"ref_max"}
    Transformação "filter" aplicada à base "ref_panel" (2418 → 1378 linhas). {"query":"nyears == 2 and (sw in [2006, 2009] or imax == 0)"}
    Transformação "derive" aplicada à base "ref_panel" (1378 → 1378 linhas). {"args":{"cmp":"in","column":"sw","value":[2006,2009]},"name":"group_treated","op":"indicator"}
    Transformação "derive" aplicada à base "ref_panel" (1378 → 1378 linhas). {"args":{"column":"group_treated","default":0,"keep_unmapped":false,"mapping":[{"source":1,"target":1}]},"name":"group_treated","op":"map"}
    Transformação "derive" aplicada à base "ref_panel" (1378 → 1378 linhas). {"args":{"cmp":"eq","column":"year","value":2009},"name":"post","op":"indicator"}
    Transformação "derive" aplicada à base "ref_panel" (1378 → 1378 linhas). {"args":{"columns":["group_treated","post"]},"name":"g_post","op":"interaction"}
  2. 2Chamada que gerou a resposta finalinfer.ols(Regressão linear por mínimos quadrados ordinários (MQO))citada na respostacoincide com a referência
    Ver chamada call_a45fb98d nos detalhes

    sm.OLS(y, add_constant([group_treated, post, g_post])).fit(cov_type='cluster', groups=bfs) (CR1 errors with statsmodels' default G/(G-1)·(N-1)/(N-K) correction)

    Por que este é o caminho de referência: sm.OLS(y, add_constant([group_treated, post, g_post])).fit(cov_type='cluster', groups=bfs) (CR1 errors with statsmodels' default G/(G-1)·(N-1)/(N-K) correction)
    Argumentos principais
    cluster:
    "bfs"
    controls:
    ["group_treated","post"]
    dataset:
    "ref_panel"
    intercept:
    true
    level:
    0,950.95
    se:
    "HC1"
    x:
    ["g_post"]
    y:
    "nat_rate_ord"
    Resultado calculado
    • coef.g_post = 0,815272 0.8152716551072007
      Coefficient on g_post in the regression of nat_rate_ord
    Diagnósticos: n_obs = 1.3781378 (observations used) · k = 44 (parameters estimated, fixed-effect dummies included) · r2 = 0,0681330.0681330291116381 · df_resid = 1.3741374 · se_type = "cluster" (cluster-robust standard errors (CR1) by 'bfs') · n_clusters = 689689 (689 clusters of 'bfs')
  3. 3Conferência de lastro e resposta final

    Todos os 1 números escritos na resposta foram conferidos contra as ferramentas e o enunciado (nenhum número sem lastro).

    Números encontrados: 0,8153
    Figuras citadas: call_a45fb98d:coef.g_post
    • #0resposta com lastro
      every number traced to a tool call or the question
    • #1figura da resposta próxima
      CRB estimate_within_solution_ci: the answer figure inside the gold 95% interval effect ± 1.96·|SE| of source crb_papers.q029.gold (closed, evaluate_result.py; no --auto-rescale)
    • #2figura da resposta próxima
      replication cell: the gold effect to rel 1e-6 (abs floor 1e-6·SE); never required
    • #3figura da resposta próxima
      replication cell: the gold SE to rel 1e-6; never required

Aprofundamento técnico para especialistas

Acesso direto às fontes primárias, tabela formal de verificações, comparação de argumentos, trajetória completa com prompts brutos e somas SHA-256.

Valores esperados e de onde vêm

crb_papers.q029.gold

Fonte
CausalReasoningBenchmark, causal_queries.json, index 29 (revision edd0fe1c1d1c)
Tipo
benchmark_gold
Localização
causal_queries.json['29'].effect and .standard_error
Trecho
index 29: effect 0.815272, standard_error 0.463921
Valor como publicado
0.8152716551072032
Erro-padrão como publicado
0.46392069651186174
Valor
0,8152720.8152716551072032 (se 0,4639210.46392069651186174)
Conferido por
arquivo do benchmark · Read from the catalog at the pinned revision by scripts/freeze_crb_papers.py; the catalog states the value its estimation script prints.
Endereço
https://huggingface.co/datasets/syrgkanislab/CausalReasoningBenchmark/resolve/edd0fe1c1d1c5c0a4f0e3e67a50481ac679fb888/causal_queries.json
Licença
MIT
  • #2 figura da resposta próxima: 0,8152720.8152716551072032 · relativa 0.000001 · absoluta 4.639206965118617e-7
  • #3 figura da resposta próxima: 0,4639210.46392069651186174 · relativa 0.000001 · absoluta 4.639206965118617e-7

crb_papers.q029.script

Fonte
CausalReasoningBenchmark reference estimation script for index 29
Tipo
software
Localização
solutions/research_papers/DiD/Hainmueller_Hangartner_2019/question_2/estimation.py
Valor
—
Conferido por
arquivo do benchmark · sha256 of the script's 2682 bytes at the pinned revision; the reference path of the item is a transcription of this script into typed transforms and tool calls (never executed here).
Implementação
independente da ferramenta
sha256 da cópia lida
955cfba911624072407f79e3af23c1c990807c4b0c1e7edd0bddf277996c439d (identifica a cópia lida, não um arquivo canônico)
Endereço
https://huggingface.co/datasets/syrgkanislab/CausalReasoningBenchmark/resolve/edd0fe1c1d1c5c0a4f0e3e67a50481ac679fb888/solutions/research_papers/DiD/Hainmueller_Hangartner_2019/question_2/estimation.py
Licença
MIT
    Especificação técnica do gabarito

    CausalReasoningBenchmark gold at the pinned revision: causal_queries.json effect and standard_error (the value the item's estimation.py prints), scored as evaluate_result.py scores estimate_within_solution_ci

    Verificações

    Cada verificação, o que esperava, o que observou e a chamada que leu
    #VerificaçãoObrigatóriaResultadoEsperadoObservadoTolerânciaFonteChamada
    0
    resposta com lastro
    every number traced to a tool call or the question
    every number backed
    obrigatóriapassou0 sem lastro0 sem lastro[]———
    1
    figura da resposta próxima
    CRB estimate_within_solution_ci: the answer figure inside the gold 95% interval effect ± 1.96·|SE| of source crb_papers.q029.gold (closed, evaluate_result.py; no --auto-rescale)
    0.8152716551 in [-0.09401291006, 1.72455622]?
    obrigatóriapassou[-0.09401291005604573,1.7245562202704523]0,8152720.8152716551072007interval · [-0.09401291005604573, 1.7245562202704523]—call_a45fb98d
    2
    figura da resposta próxima
    replication cell: the gold effect to rel 1e-6 (abs floor 1e-6·SE); never required
    0.8152716551 vs 0.8152716551072032
    registradapassou0,8152720.81527165510720320,8152720.8152716551072007relativa 0.000001 · absoluta 4.639206965118617e-7crb_papers.q029.goldcall_a45fb98d
    3
    figura da resposta próxima
    replication cell: the gold SE to rel 1e-6; never required
    0.4639206965 vs 0.46392069651186174
    registradapassou0,4639210.463920696511861740,4639210.4639206965118652relativa 0.000001 · absoluta 4.639206965118617e-7crb_papers.q029.goldcall_a45fb98d

    Caminho de referência e caminho do agente

    A chamada de referência ao lado da chamada que deu a resposta, argumento por argumento.

    caminho de referência do item · benchmark_script

    Referência: infer.olsChamada do agente: infer.ols (call_a45fb98d)igual
    Argumentos da referência e do agente
    ArgumentoReferênciaAgente
    cluster"bfs""bfs"igual
    controls["group_treated","post"]["group_treated","post"]igual
    dataset"ref_panel""ref_panel"igual
    fe—[]não fixado pela referência
    intercept—truenão fixado pela referência
    level—0,950.95não fixado pela referência
    se—"HC1"não fixado pela referência
    subset——não fixado pela referência
    weights——não fixado pela referência
    x["g_post"]["g_post"]igual
    y"nat_rate_ord""nat_rate_ord"igual

    Trajetória

    Cada evento na ordem em que aconteceu: turnos do modelo, chamadas de ferramentas, guardas, transformações e pontuação.

    1. 0Início

      For municipalities that first moved to council-based naturalization decisions in 2006 or 2009, how much did ordinary naturalization rates change from 1991 to 2009 relative to municipalities that never changed their local decision regime?

      ds_0015 (agent)

      | Variable Name | Description | | --- | --- | | bfs | Swiss Federal Statistical Office (BFS) municipality code: a stable numeric identifier for each municipality in the panel. | | year | Calendar year of the observation (1991–2009). Institutional status is referenced as of January 1 of the given year, and annual rates are computed for the same year. | | nat_rate_ord | Ordinary naturalization rate (percent). Computed as the number of ordinary naturalizations recorded during the year divided by the stock of foreign residents who met statutory eligibility at the start of the year in the same municipality, multiplied by 100. Ordinary naturalizations refer to the standard pathway (as opposed to federally handled “facilitated” cases). | | indirect | Local decision procedure in place on January 1: 1 if applications were decided by the elected municipal council (representative/indirect democracy); 0 if applications were decided by citizens in a local vote (direct democracy). | Dataset Context: This dataset is an annual municipality–year panel for Switzerland that spans a period of institutional change in how local authorities decide on citizenship applications. Switzerland’s “triple citizenship” system assigns a central role to municipalities in evaluating and deciding ordinary naturalization requests. During the 1990s and 2000s, municipalities used different decision procedures: in some, citizens voted on applications (often at a citizens’ assembly and, historically in a few places, by ballot); in others, elected municipal councils rendered the decisions. A series of Swiss Federal Court rulings in 2003–2005 curtailed secret-ballot referendums for naturalizations and required municipalities to provide formal justifications for rejections. Several cantons subsequently updated their laws, and many municipalities revised or formalized their procedures, frequently shifting decision authority to municipal councils. The indicator in this file captures, for each municipality and year, which procedure was in force as of January 1. The panel combines two types of information. First, administrative registers from the Swiss Federal Statistical Office (PETRA: Foreign Population Structure and Migration Statistics) are used to derive annual ordinary naturalization rates. These rates are constructed as ordinary naturalizations completed within a year divided by the number of foreign residents who met the legal eligibility criteria at the start of that year, providing a comparable percentage measure across municipalities and over time. Second, the coding of local decision procedures relies on a nationwide survey of municipal head secretaries and systematic compilation of cantonal regulations and court decisions. The measurement convention aligns the institutional status to January 1 to enhance comparability across municipalities, recognizing that formal switches may occur during a calendar year. Ordinary naturalizations represent the standard route to citizenship and, in the study period, typically occurred after lengthy processing that could extend several years from initial application to final local vote. Facilitated naturalizations—handled centrally under federal law (for example, for certain spouses of Swiss citizens)—are not included in the numerator of the ordinary naturalization rate. The resulting dataset provides a consistent view of local institutions and annual naturalization activity across more than a decade and a half, covering the pre- and post-reform environment in which many municipalities updated their decision-making arrangements.

      file e9ce75e30cb08926da17f27cb91ecb80f964f077f9a592e052d672b61239e8f9 · frame —
      ref_first (reference)
      file e9ce75e30cb08926da17f27cb91ecb80f964f077f9a592e052d672b61239e8f9 · frame —
      1. select {"columns":["bfs","year","nat_rate_ord","indirect"]}
      2. dropna {"columns":["bfs","year","nat_rate_ord"]}
      3. filter {"query":"indirect == 1"}
      4. collapse {"aggs":[{"column":"year","fn":"min","name":"sw"}],"by":["bfs"]}
      ref_max (reference)
      file e9ce75e30cb08926da17f27cb91ecb80f964f077f9a592e052d672b61239e8f9 · frame —
      1. select {"columns":["bfs","year","nat_rate_ord","indirect"]}
      2. dropna {"columns":["bfs","year","nat_rate_ord"]}
      3. collapse {"aggs":[{"column":"indirect","fn":"max","name":"imax"}],"by":["bfs"]}
      ref_panel (reference)
      file e9ce75e30cb08926da17f27cb91ecb80f964f077f9a592e052d672b61239e8f9 · frame —
      1. select {"columns":["bfs","year","nat_rate_ord","indirect"]}
      2. dropna {"columns":["bfs","year","nat_rate_ord"]}
      3. filter {"query":"year in [1991, 2009]"}
      4. merge {"how":"left","on":["bfs"],"with":"ref_first"}
      5. merge {"how":"left","on":["bfs"],"with":"ref_years"}
      6. merge {"how":"left","on":["bfs"],"with":"ref_max"}
      7. filter {"query":"nyears == 2 and (sw in [2006, 2009] or imax == 0)"}
      8. derive {"args":{"cmp":"in","column":"sw","value":[2006,2009]},"name":"group_treated","op":"indicator"}
      9. derive {"args":{"column":"group_treated","default":0,"keep_unmapped":false,"mapping":[{"source":1,"target":1}]},"name":"group_treated","op":"map"}
      10. derive {"args":{"cmp":"eq","column":"year","value":2009},"name":"post","op":"indicator"}
      11. derive {"args":{"columns":["group_treated","post"]},"name":"g_post","op":"interaction"}
      ref_years (reference)
      file e9ce75e30cb08926da17f27cb91ecb80f964f077f9a592e052d672b61239e8f9 · frame —
      1. select {"columns":["bfs","year","nat_rate_ord","indirect"]}
      2. dropna {"columns":["bfs","year","nat_rate_ord"]}
      3. filter {"query":"year in [1991, 2009]"}
      4. collapse {"aggs":[{"column":"nat_rate_ord","fn":"count","name":"n"}],"by":["bfs","year"]}
      5. collapse {"aggs":[{"column":"n","fn":"count","name":"nyears"}],"by":["bfs"]}
    2. 1Transformação
      ref_first · select {"columns":["bfs","year","nat_rate_ord","indirect"]}
      22971 → 22971 linhas
      Frame antes → depois: b496d06ec0c7 → b496d06ec0c7
    3. 2Transformação
      ref_first · dropna {"columns":["bfs","year","nat_rate_ord"]}
      22971 → 22971 linhas
      Frame antes → depois: b496d06ec0c7 → b496d06ec0c7
    4. 3Transformação
      ref_first · filter {"query":"indirect == 1"}
      22971 → 7836 linhas
      Frame antes → depois: b496d06ec0c7 → 8ab632303c72
    5. 4Transformação
      ref_first · collapse {"aggs":[{"column":"year","fn":"min","name":"sw"}],"by":["bfs"]}
      7836 → 797 linhas
      Frame antes → depois: 8ab632303c72 → 8781603036ea
    6. 5Transformação
      ref_years · select {"columns":["bfs","year","nat_rate_ord","indirect"]}
      22971 → 22971 linhas
      Frame antes → depois: b496d06ec0c7 → b496d06ec0c7
    7. 6Transformação
      ref_years · dropna {"columns":["bfs","year","nat_rate_ord"]}
      22971 → 22971 linhas
      Frame antes → depois: b496d06ec0c7 → b496d06ec0c7
    8. 7Transformação
      ref_years · filter {"query":"year in [1991, 2009]"}
      22971 → 2418 linhas
      Frame antes → depois: b496d06ec0c7 → a774e1115874
    9. 8Transformação
      ref_years · collapse {"aggs":[{"column":"nat_rate_ord","fn":"count","name":"n"}],"by":["bfs","year"]}
      2418 → 2418 linhas
      Frame antes → depois: a774e1115874 → 88999a19f8f6
    10. 9Transformação
      ref_years · collapse {"aggs":[{"column":"n","fn":"count","name":"nyears"}],"by":["bfs"]}
      2418 → 1209 linhas
      Frame antes → depois: 88999a19f8f6 → fe46190a8274
    11. 10Transformação
      ref_max · select {"columns":["bfs","year","nat_rate_ord","indirect"]}
      22971 → 22971 linhas
      Frame antes → depois: b496d06ec0c7 → b496d06ec0c7
    12. 11Transformação
      ref_max · dropna {"columns":["bfs","year","nat_rate_ord"]}
      22971 → 22971 linhas
      Frame antes → depois: b496d06ec0c7 → b496d06ec0c7
    13. 12Transformação
      ref_max · collapse {"aggs":[{"column":"indirect","fn":"max","name":"imax"}],"by":["bfs"]}
      22971 → 1209 linhas
      Frame antes → depois: b496d06ec0c7 → 76a79e73bcae
    14. 13Transformação
      ref_panel · select {"columns":["bfs","year","nat_rate_ord","indirect"]}
      22971 → 22971 linhas
      Frame antes → depois: b496d06ec0c7 → b496d06ec0c7
    15. 14Transformação
      ref_panel · dropna {"columns":["bfs","year","nat_rate_ord"]}
      22971 → 22971 linhas
      Frame antes → depois: b496d06ec0c7 → b496d06ec0c7
    16. 15Transformação
      ref_panel · filter {"query":"year in [1991, 2009]"}
      22971 → 2418 linhas
      Frame antes → depois: b496d06ec0c7 → a774e1115874
    17. 16Transformação
      ref_panel · merge {"how":"left","on":["bfs"],"with":"ref_first"}
      2418 → 2418 linhas
      Frame antes → depois: a774e1115874 → fc5a995535da
    18. 17Transformação
      ref_panel · merge {"how":"left","on":["bfs"],"with":"ref_years"}
      2418 → 2418 linhas
      Frame antes → depois: fc5a995535da → 239e1bc4971d
    19. 18Transformação
      ref_panel · merge {"how":"left","on":["bfs"],"with":"ref_max"}
      2418 → 2418 linhas
      Frame antes → depois: 239e1bc4971d → 0dd836e8cd04
    20. 19Transformação
      ref_panel · filter {"query":"nyears == 2 and (sw in [2006, 2009] or imax == 0)"}
      2418 → 1378 linhas
      Frame antes → depois: 0dd836e8cd04 → bd5360b17bf5
    21. 20Transformação
      ref_panel · derive {"args":{"cmp":"in","column":"sw","value":[2006,2009]},"name":"group_treated","op":"indicator"}
      1378 → 1378 linhas
      Frame antes → depois: bd5360b17bf5 → 60d8f2cb9601
    22. 21Transformação
      ref_panel · derive {"args":{"column":"group_treated","default":0,"keep_unmapped":false,"mapping":[{"source":1,"target":1}]},"name":"group_treated","op":"map"}
      1378 → 1378 linhas
      Frame antes → depois: 60d8f2cb9601 → 25f6ca4b1040
    23. 22Transformação
      ref_panel · derive {"args":{"cmp":"eq","column":"year","value":2009},"name":"post","op":"indicator"}
      1378 → 1378 linhas
      Frame antes → depois: 25f6ca4b1040 → 9b4f2f375f0b
    24. 23Transformação
      ref_panel · derive {"args":{"columns":["group_treated","post"]},"name":"g_post","op":"interaction"}
      1378 → 1378 linhas
      Frame antes → depois: 9b4f2f375f0b → ebdf76679911
    25. 24Turno do modelo
      call_fb0107c7referenceFim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache
      Texto visível

      sm.OLS(y, add_constant([group_treated, post, g_post])).fit(cov_type='cluster', groups=bfs) (CR1 errors with statsmodels' default G/(G-1)·(N-1)/(N-K) correction)

      Chamadas pedidas
      • infer.ols
        {
          "cluster": "bfs",
          "controls": [
            "group_treated",
            "post"
          ],
          "dataset": "ref_panel",
          "x": [
            "g_post"
          ],
          "y": "nat_rate_ord"
        }
    26. 25Ferramenta
      infer.ols— Regressão linear por mínimos quadrados ordinários (MQO)v0.1.0call_a45fb98ddecidido pelo modeloreexecutável

      Motivo: sm.OLS(y, add_constant([group_treated, post, g_post])).fit(cov_type='cluster', groups=bfs) (CR1 errors with statsmodels' default G/(G-1)·(N-1)/(N-K) correction)

      Argumentos
      {
        "cluster": "bfs",
        "controls": [
          "group_treated",
          "post"
        ],
        "dataset": "ref_panel",
        "fe": [],
        "intercept": true,
        "level": 0.95,
        "se": "HC1",
        "subset": null,
        "weights": null,
        "x": [
          "g_post"
        ],
        "y": "nat_rate_ord"
      }
      Figuras call_a45fb98d
      ChaveValorValor brutoErro-padrãoIC
      coef.g_post
      Coefficient on g_post in the regression of nat_rate_ord
      0,8152720.81527165510720070,4639210.4639206965118652-0,0955986 – 1,72614
      Diagnósticos
      • n_obs = 1.3781378 (observations used)
      • k = 44 (parameters estimated, fixed-effect dummies included)
      • r2 = 0,0681330.0681330291116381
      • df_resid = 1.3741374
      • se_type = "cluster" (cluster-robust standard errors (CR1) by 'bfs')
      • n_clusters = 689689 (689 clusters of 'bfs')
      Derivação matemática e pressupostos
      coef.g_post
      1. Coeficiente de g_post na regressão por mínimos quadrados ordinários de nat_rate_ord.→ 0,815272 (0.8152716551072007)
      2. Erro-padrão robusto por conglomerado (CR1): a raiz da variância estimada do coeficiente.ep = √V_jj→ 0,463921 (0.4639206965118652)
      3. Intervalo de 95% de confiança: a estimativa mais ou menos o valor crítico da distribuição t de Student com 688 graus de liberdade vezes o erro-padrão.IC = β ± c · ep
      Pressupostos do estimador
      • the conditional mean of the outcome is linear in the regressors
      • errors are independent across clusters of 'bfs' and may be correlated within them
      Tabelas (1)
      {
        "coefficients": [
          {
            "ci_high": 1.2462499871036394,
            "ci_low": 0.6290205627191401,
            "coef": 0.9376352749113898,
            "p": 3.906749099702052e-9,
            "se": 0.1571823770741144,
            "t": 5.96526972275828,
            "term": "Intercept"
          },
          {
            "ci_high": 1.7261419123150346,
            "ci_low": -0.0955986021006332,
            "coef": 0.8152716551072007,
            "p": 0.07930267515443727,
            "se": 0.4639206965118652,
            "t": 1.7573513344782397,
            "term": "g_post"
          },
          {
            "ci_high": 0.27482868552125517,
            "ci_low": -0.754355212649299,
            "coef": -0.2397632635640219,
            "p": 0.36061020028727475,
            "se": 0.26208985698011306,
            "t": -0.9148132107310614,
            "term": "group_treated"
          },
          {
            "ci_high": 2.321744077839199,
            "ci_low": 1.3268314754153963,
            "coef": 1.8242877766272976,
            "p": 1.5788364395652995e-12,
            "se": 0.25336239921794285,
            "t": 7.200309841785329,
            "term": "post"
          }
        ]
      }
      Hashes SHA-256 e metadados de reprodução
      Digests dos dados
      ref_panel ebdf76679911c2cbbd78a3a2b0a2e948b8028561e2f2ecc89ccea5a1e6b3de48
      sha256 do resultado
      16251e64ab7925ecaf4da3ed1f4e0b4674cbf6c66b5b8651e0e6431675ffa366
    27. 26Turno do modelo
      call_7cf7089ereferenceFim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache
      Chamadas pedidas
      • submit_answer (meta-ferramenta)
        {
          "answer": "Estimativa (infer.ols): coef.g_post = 0,8153. Reference path transcribed from the item's own estimation script.",
          "caveats": [],
          "figure_refs": [
            "call_a45fb98d:coef.g_post"
          ]
        }
    28. 27Guarda
      resposta aceita
      Números encontrados
      0,8153
      Sem lastro
      —
      Não citados
      —
      1 nova(s) tentativa(s) restante(s)
    29. 28Resposta

      Estimativa (infer.ols): coef.g_post = 0,8153. Reference path transcribed from the item's own estimation script.

      Figuras citadas: call_a45fb98d:coef.g_post · Parada: answered
      Figura da resposta: call_a45fb98d:coef.g_post = 0,8152720.8152716551072007 (se 0,4639210.4639206965118652)
    30. 29Pontuação
      #0resposta com lastropassouobrigatóriaevery number backed
    31. 30Pontuação
      #1figura da resposta próximapassouobrigatória0.8152716551 in [-0.09401291006, 1.72455622]?
    32. 31Pontuação
      #2figura da resposta próximapassouregistrada0.8152716551 vs 0.8152716551072032
    33. 32Pontuação
      #3figura da resposta próximapassouregistrada0.4639206965 vs 0.46392069651186174

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