Tarefa crb_papers.q078

Veredito

Pergunta feita ao analista

What is the causal effect (local average treatment effect among counties affected by the source of exogenous local variation used in the study) of a one-percentage-point increase in the county-level Democratic gubernatorial vote share on the county-level Democratic down-ballot statewide vote share?

Como o agente resolveu e como foi validado

Resumo passo a passo do que o agente executou, por que o caminho está correto e como cada verificação conferiu o resultado.

1. 1Preparação da base de dados
   ds_0048— | Variable Name | Description | |--------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | row_index | Row identifier from the CSV (simple integer index for each observation). | | fips | Numeric FIPS code for the U.S. county (standard county-level geographic identifier). | | DemShareDB_res | Residualized two-party Democratic vote share in the selected down-ballot statewide race for the county (processed/demeaned for analysis). | | DemShareGOV_res | Residualized two-party Democratic vote share in the gubernatorial race for the county (processed/demeaned for analysis). | | HomeGOV_res | Processed (residualized/demeaned) county-level measure capturing the gubernatorial candidate’s geographic proximity/home-county status (based on birthplace/residence, prepared for analysis). | | HomeDB_res | Processed (residualized/demeaned) county-level measure capturing the selected down-ballot candidate’s geographic proximity/home-county status (based on birthplace/residence, prepared for analysis). | Data Description: This dataset contains county-level observations constructed for analyses of statewide executive elections in the United States (county × election instances). County identifiers (fips) link each row to a specific U.S. county; the dataset includes processed vote-share measures for a selected down-ballot statewide race and the concurrent gubernatorial race, and analytic indicators (expressed here in residualized form) that summarize whether a candidate was born in or resides near the county. The original returns and candidate biographical information were drawn from official election offices, archival sources, and biographical repositories; the provided variables have been transformed (e.g., demeaning/residualization) to match the preprocessing used in the replication code.
   ref_iv
   Transformação "select" aplicada à base "ref_iv" (14656 → 14656 linhas). {"columns":["DemShareDB_res","DemShareGOV_res","HomeGOV_res","HomeDB_res","fips"]}
   Transformação "dropna" aplicada à base "ref_iv" (14656 → 14550 linhas). {"columns":["DemShareDB_res","DemShareGOV_res","HomeGOV_res","HomeDB_res","fips"]}
2. 2Chamada que gerou a resposta finalinfer.iv_2sls(Variáveis instrumentais por mínimos quadrados em dois estágios (MQ2E))citada na respostacoincide com a referência

   Ver chamada call_04ba9234 nos detalhes

   IV2SLS.from_formula('DemShareDB_res ~ HomeDB_res + [DemShareGOV_res ~ HomeGOV_res]'), clustered by fips; the columns are residualised, so the tool's constant is zero and the fit equals the script's no-constant model

   Por que este é o caminho de referência: IV2SLS.from_formula('DemShareDB_res ~ HomeDB_res + [DemShareGOV_res ~ HomeGOV_res]'), clustered by fips; the columns are residualised, so the tool's constant is zero and the fit equals the script's no-constant model
   Argumentos principais

   cluster:

   "fips"

   dataset:

   "ref_iv"

   endog:

   ["DemShareGOV_res"]

   exog:

   ["HomeDB_res"]

   instruments:

   ["HomeGOV_res"]

   level:

   0,950.95

   se:

   "HC1"

   y:

   "DemShareDB_res"

   Resultado calculado

   • coef.DemShareGOV_res = 0,163434 0.1634338849109275
     2SLS effect of DemShareGOV_res on DemShareDB_res
   Diagnósticos: first_stage_F.DemShareGOV_res = 77,295377.29526456918744 (Wald F of the excluded instruments in the first stage for DemShareGOV_res (cluster-robust standard errors (CR1) by 'fips')) · partial_r2.DemShareGOV_res = 0,01921290.019212905950528714 (share of the variation the instruments explain beyond the controls) · weak_instrument = false (every first-stage F is at least 10) · n_obs = 14.55014550 · se_type = "cluster" (cluster-robust standard errors (CR1) by 'fips') · n_clusters = 2.7502750 (2750 clusters of 'fips')
3. 3Conferência de lastro e resposta final

   Todos os 1 números escritos na resposta foram conferidos contra as ferramentas e o enunciado (nenhum número sem lastro).

   Números encontrados: 0,1634
   Figuras citadas: call_04ba9234:coef.DemShareGOV_res
   • ✓
     #0resposta com lastro

     every number traced to a tool call or the question
   • ✓
     #1figura da resposta próxima

     CRB estimate_within_solution_ci: the answer figure inside the gold 95% interval effect ± 1.96·|SE| of source crb_papers.q078.gold (closed, evaluate_result.py; no --auto-rescale)
   • ✓
     #2figura da resposta próxima

     replication cell: the gold effect to rel 1e-6 (abs floor 1e-6·SE); never required
   • ✗
     #3figura da resposta próxima

     replication cell: the gold SE to rel 1e-6; never required

Valores esperados e de onde vêm

Verificações

Caminho de referência e caminho do agente

A chamada de referência ao lado da chamada que deu a resposta, argumento por argumento.

Trajetória

Cada evento na ordem em que aconteceu: turnos do modelo, chamadas de ferramentas, guardas, transformações e pontuação.

1. 0Início

   What is the causal effect (local average treatment effect among counties affected by the source of exogenous local variation used in the study) of a one-percentage-point increase in the county-level Democratic gubernatorial vote share on the county-level Democratic down-ballot statewide vote share?

   ds_0048 (agent)

   | Variable Name | Description | |--------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | row_index | Row identifier from the CSV (simple integer index for each observation). | | fips | Numeric FIPS code for the U.S. county (standard county-level geographic identifier). | | DemShareDB_res | Residualized two-party Democratic vote share in the selected down-ballot statewide race for the county (processed/demeaned for analysis). | | DemShareGOV_res | Residualized two-party Democratic vote share in the gubernatorial race for the county (processed/demeaned for analysis). | | HomeGOV_res | Processed (residualized/demeaned) county-level measure capturing the gubernatorial candidate’s geographic proximity/home-county status (based on birthplace/residence, prepared for analysis). | | HomeDB_res | Processed (residualized/demeaned) county-level measure capturing the selected down-ballot candidate’s geographic proximity/home-county status (based on birthplace/residence, prepared for analysis). | Data Description: This dataset contains county-level observations constructed for analyses of statewide executive elections in the United States (county × election instances). County identifiers (fips) link each row to a specific U.S. county; the dataset includes processed vote-share measures for a selected down-ballot statewide race and the concurrent gubernatorial race, and analytic indicators (expressed here in residualized form) that summarize whether a candidate was born in or resides near the county. The original returns and candidate biographical information were drawn from official election offices, archival sources, and biographical repositories; the provided variables have been transformed (e.g., demeaning/residualization) to match the preprocessing used in the replication code.

   file e16f727800431879890b0cf6ae629dc85efa23fb8f083bc48123d4c3ffa57082 · frame —

   ref_iv (reference)

   file e16f727800431879890b0cf6ae629dc85efa23fb8f083bc48123d4c3ffa57082 · frame —

   1. select {"columns":["DemShareDB_res","DemShareGOV_res","HomeGOV_res","HomeDB_res","fips"]}
   2. dropna {"columns":["DemShareDB_res","DemShareGOV_res","HomeGOV_res","HomeDB_res","fips"]}
2. 1Transformação
   ref_iv · select {"columns":["DemShareDB_res","DemShareGOV_res","HomeGOV_res","HomeDB_res","fips"]}

   14656 → 14656 linhas

   Frame antes → depois: d907be837237 → 4516132fef0a
3. 2Transformação
   ref_iv · dropna {"columns":["DemShareDB_res","DemShareGOV_res","HomeGOV_res","HomeDB_res","fips"]}

   14656 → 14550 linhas

   Frame antes → depois: 4516132fef0a → b530b4225ca4
4. 3Turno do modelo
   call_9031d2d6referenceFim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache

   Texto visível

   IV2SLS.from_formula('DemShareDB_res ~ HomeDB_res + [DemShareGOV_res ~ HomeGOV_res]'), clustered by fips; the columns are residualised, so the tool's constant is zero and the fit equals the script's no-constant model

   Chamadas pedidas

   • infer.iv_2sls

     {
       "cluster": "fips",
       "dataset": "ref_iv",
       "endog": [
         "DemShareGOV_res"
       ],
       "exog": [
         "HomeDB_res"
       ],
       "instruments": [
         "HomeGOV_res"
       ],
       "y": "DemShareDB_res"
     }

   Mensagens (formato neutro)Instruções do sistemaFerramentas oferecidas
5. 4Ferramenta
   infer.iv_2sls— Variáveis instrumentais por mínimos quadrados em dois estágios (MQ2E)v0.1.0call_04ba9234decidido pelo modeloreexecutável

   Motivo: IV2SLS.from_formula('DemShareDB_res ~ HomeDB_res + [DemShareGOV_res ~ HomeGOV_res]'), clustered by fips; the columns are residualised, so the tool's constant is zero and the fit equals the script's no-constant model

   Argumentos

   {
     "cluster": "fips",
     "dataset": "ref_iv",
     "endog": [
       "DemShareGOV_res"
     ],
     "exog": [
       "HomeDB_res"
     ],
     "instruments": [
       "HomeGOV_res"
     ],
     "level": 0.95,
     "se": "HC1",
     "subset": null,
     "y": "DemShareDB_res"
   }

   Figuras call_04ba9234

   Chave	Valor	Valor bruto	Erro-padrão	IC
   coef.DemShareGOV_res 2SLS effect of DemShareGOV_res on DemShareDB_res	0,163434	0.1634338849109275	0,07118480.07118477178041364	0,0238528 – 0,303015

   Diagnósticos

   • first_stage_F.DemShareGOV_res = 77,295377.29526456918744 (Wald F of the excluded instruments in the first stage for DemShareGOV_res (cluster-robust standard errors (CR1) by 'fips'))
   • partial_r2.DemShareGOV_res = 0,01921290.019212905950528714 (share of the variation the instruments explain beyond the controls)
   • weak_instrument = false (every first-stage F is at least 10)
   • n_obs = 14.55014550
   • se_type = "cluster" (cluster-robust standard errors (CR1) by 'fips')
   • n_clusters = 2.7502750 (2750 clusters of 'fips')

   Derivação matemática e pressupostos

   coef.DemShareGOV_res

   1. Com um instrumento e um regressor endógeno, o MQ2E é a razão entre o coeficiente de HomeGOV_res na forma reduzida (DemShareDB_res sobre HomeGOV_res e os controles) e no primeiro estágio (DemShareGOV_res sobre HomeGOV_res e os controles).β = ρ / π→ 0,163434 (0.1634338849109275)
   2. Erro-padrão robusto por conglomerado (CR1): a raiz da variância estimada do coeficiente.ep = √V_jj→ 0,0711848 (0.07118477178041364)
   3. Intervalo de 95% de confiança: a estimativa mais ou menos o valor crítico da distribuição t de Student com 2749 graus de liberdade vezes o erro-padrão.IC = β ± c · ep

   Pressupostos do estimador

   • the instruments affect the outcome only through the endogenous regressors (exclusion restriction)
   • the instruments are as good as randomly assigned given the controls
   • errors are independent across clusters of 'fips' and may be correlated within them

   Tabelas (3)

   {
     "coefficients": [
       {
         "ci_high": 2.714451201025359e-12,
         "ci_low": -2.7107223261061127e-12,
         "coef": 1.864437459623134e-15,
         "p": 0.9989247635842735,
         "se": 1.3833889100637665e-12,
         "t": 0.0013477319689784082,
         "term": "Intercept"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.051949840546279075,
         "ci_low": 0.033914327429788324,
         "coef": 0.0429320839880337,
         "p": 2.013857840056198e-20,
         "se": 0.004598954984183727,
         "t": 9.335182478559041,
         "term": "HomeDB_res"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.30301492990433954,
         "ci_low": 0.023852839917515495,
         "coef": 0.1634338849109275,
         "p": 0.02175590526641289,
         "se": 0.07118477178041364,
         "t": 2.295910780118509,
         "term": "DemShareGOV_res"
       }
     ],
     "first_stage": [
       {
         "ci_high": 0.046353742769718195,
         "ci_low": 0.02944775051539469,
         "coef": 0.037900746642556445,
         "endog": "DemShareGOV_res",
         "instrument": "HomeGOV_res",
         "p": 2.54440021423836e-18,
         "se": 0.004310933480983254,
         "t": 8.7917725499007
       }
     ],
     "reduced_form": [
       {
         "ci_high": 0.011849953679797262,
         "ci_low": 0.000538578849838333,
         "coef": 0.006194266264817797,
         "instrument": "HomeGOV_res",
         "p": 0.031836492221555164,
         "se": 0.002884337324711051,
         "t": 2.1475526498754203
       }
     ]
   }

   Hashes SHA-256 e metadados de reprodução

   Digests dos dados

   ref_iv b530b4225ca461b37bf690882169fb1c53945e733baeee40a87f77954572322b

   sha256 do resultado

   2d4f52015045f13a4e6e5916a45a250f58caa5c8a6d745e38c543c73a2a32081

   Resultado mostrado ao modelo
6. 5Turno do modelo
   call_19263c78referenceFim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache

   Chamadas pedidas

   • submit_answer (meta-ferramenta)

     {
       "answer": "Estimativa (infer.iv_2sls): coef.DemShareGOV_res = 0,1634. Reference path transcribed from the item's own estimation script.",
       "caveats": [],
       "figure_refs": [
         "call_04ba9234:coef.DemShareGOV_res"
       ]
     }

   Mensagens (formato neutro)Instruções do sistemaFerramentas oferecidas
7. 6Guarda
   resposta aceita

   Números encontrados

   0,1634

   Sem lastro

   —

   Não citados

   —

   1 nova(s) tentativa(s) restante(s)
8. 7Resposta

   Estimativa (infer.iv_2sls): coef.DemShareGOV_res = 0,1634. Reference path transcribed from the item's own estimation script.

   Figuras citadas: call_04ba9234:coef.DemShareGOV_res · Parada: answered

   Figura da resposta: call_04ba9234:coef.DemShareGOV_res = 0,1634340.1634338849109275 (se 0,07118480.07118477178041364)
9. 8Pontuação
   #0resposta com lastropassouobrigatóriaevery number backed
10. 9Pontuação
    #1figura da resposta próximapassouobrigatória0.1634338849 in [0.02394669059, 0.3029210792]?
11. 10Pontuação
    #2figura da resposta próximapassouregistrada0.1634338849 vs 0.16343388491092745
12. 11Pontuação
    #3figura da resposta próximafalhouregistrada0.07118477178 vs 0.07116693587890967

Épocas × verificações

Tentativas

Cada tentativa é seu próprio arquivo e é publicada; só a última de cada época é pontuada.

• época 1, tentativa 1passoupontuada(exibindo)

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