Tarefa crb_papers.q105

Veredito

Pergunta feita ao analista

What is the average effect, at very close U.S. House races, of a Democratic victory on the Democratic Party's share of all campaign contributions received in the subsequent election cycle in that district?

Como o agente resolveu e como foi validado

Resumo passo a passo do que o agente executou, por que o caminho está correto e como cada verificação conferiu o resultado.

1. 1Preparação da base de dados
   ds_0071— | Variable Name | Description | |---------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | dv_money | Democratic Party’s share of all campaign contributions received in the subsequent election cycle for a district (percent of combined Democratic and Republican receipts, t+1). | | rv | Democratic two-party vote-share margin in the prior general election for the same district (Democratic share minus 50, in percentage points; negative values indicate a Democratic loss). | Data Description: This file is a pared-down analysis dataset derived from a larger compilation used to study fundraising patterns in U.S. House elections. Each row corresponds to a congressional district–election pair, combining prior election returns with fundraising in the next cycle. The contributions measure aggregates itemized receipts reported to the Federal Election Commission (FEC) by House candidates, summing donations from individuals and political action committees; party committee transfers and candidate self-financing are excluded, and the Democratic share is computed relative to the combined Democratic and Republican totals in that district-cycle. Election returns provide the two-party vote shares from the preceding general election, recorded as the Democratic margin over 50 percent. The broader study covers U.S. House contests primarily from 1980–2006 and focuses on districts with standard two-party competition. Observations in which a third-party candidate placed first or second are removed, and district-years affected by redistricting between elections are omitted to maintain comparability across cycles. Values are recorded in percentage points, with the contribution share referring to the subsequent cycle and the vote-share margin referring to the prior contest.
   ref_rd
   Transformação "select" aplicada à base "ref_rd" (6533 → 6533 linhas). {"columns":["dv_money","rv"]}
   Transformação "dropna" aplicada à base "ref_rd" (6533 → 4326 linhas). {"columns":["dv_money","rv"]}
2. 2Chamada que gerou a resposta finalinfer.rdd(Regressão descontínua (RDD))citada na respostacoincide com a referência

   Ver chamada call_ec4cd3f9 nos detalhes

   rdrobust(y[m], x[m], c=0.0, p=1, h=3.0): the script prints the Robust row, tau_bc; with h given and b not, rdrobust sets b = h (rho = 1), and the local linear jump bias-corrected by the quadratic fit at b = h with the same kernel equals the local quadratic jump at h

   Por que este é o caminho de referência: rdrobust(y[m], x[m], c=0.0, p=1, h=3.0): the script prints the Robust row, tau_bc; with h given and b not, rdrobust sets b = h (rho = 1), and the local linear jump bias-corrected by the quadratic fit at b = h with the same kernel equals the local quadratic jump at h
   Argumentos principais

   bandwidth:

   33

   cutoff:

   00

   dataset:

   "ref_rd"

   kernel:

   "triangular"

   level:

   0,950.95

   polynomial:

   22

   running:

   "rv"

   y:

   "dv_money"

   Resultado calculado

   • effect = 15,1793 15.17926830088115
     Jump in dv_money at the cutoff of rv
   Diagnósticos: bandwidth = 33 (half-width of the window around the cutoff (informada)) · bandwidth_method = "user" · n_left = 164164 (observations with positive weight below the cutoff) · n_right = 165165 (observations with positive weight at or above the cutoff) · kernel = "triangular" · polynomial = 22 · bandwidth_sensitive = false (the estimates at half and double the bandwidth fall inside the main interval) · n_obs = 4.3264326 (rows used to choose the bandwidth) · se_type = "HC1" (heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors (HC1))
3. 3Conferência de lastro e resposta final

   Todos os 1 números escritos na resposta foram conferidos contra as ferramentas e o enunciado (nenhum número sem lastro).

   Números encontrados: 15,18
   Figuras citadas: call_ec4cd3f9:effect
   • ✓
     #0resposta com lastro

     every number traced to a tool call or the question
   • ✓
     #1figura da resposta próxima

     CRB estimate_within_solution_ci: the answer figure inside the gold 95% interval effect ± 1.96·|SE| of source crb_papers.q105.gold (closed, evaluate_result.py; no --auto-rescale)
   • ✓
     #2figura da resposta próxima

     replication cell: the gold effect to rel 1e-6 (abs floor 1e-6·SE); never required
   • ✗
     #3figura da resposta próxima

     replication cell: the gold SE to rel 1e-6; never required

Valores esperados e de onde vêm

Verificações

Caminho de referência e caminho do agente

A chamada de referência ao lado da chamada que deu a resposta, argumento por argumento.

Trajetória

Cada evento na ordem em que aconteceu: turnos do modelo, chamadas de ferramentas, guardas, transformações e pontuação.

1. 0Início

   What is the average effect, at very close U.S. House races, of a Democratic victory on the Democratic Party's share of all campaign contributions received in the subsequent election cycle in that district?

   ds_0071 (agent)

   | Variable Name | Description | |---------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | dv_money | Democratic Party’s share of all campaign contributions received in the subsequent election cycle for a district (percent of combined Democratic and Republican receipts, t+1). | | rv | Democratic two-party vote-share margin in the prior general election for the same district (Democratic share minus 50, in percentage points; negative values indicate a Democratic loss). | Data Description: This file is a pared-down analysis dataset derived from a larger compilation used to study fundraising patterns in U.S. House elections. Each row corresponds to a congressional district–election pair, combining prior election returns with fundraising in the next cycle. The contributions measure aggregates itemized receipts reported to the Federal Election Commission (FEC) by House candidates, summing donations from individuals and political action committees; party committee transfers and candidate self-financing are excluded, and the Democratic share is computed relative to the combined Democratic and Republican totals in that district-cycle. Election returns provide the two-party vote shares from the preceding general election, recorded as the Democratic margin over 50 percent. The broader study covers U.S. House contests primarily from 1980–2006 and focuses on districts with standard two-party competition. Observations in which a third-party candidate placed first or second are removed, and district-years affected by redistricting between elections are omitted to maintain comparability across cycles. Values are recorded in percentage points, with the contribution share referring to the subsequent cycle and the vote-share margin referring to the prior contest.

   file 1a1e60f54978b33a6b01f7f8f66e075bbceefd4c9d0ea297c31f8521eccb53e0 · frame —

   ref_rd (reference)

   file 1a1e60f54978b33a6b01f7f8f66e075bbceefd4c9d0ea297c31f8521eccb53e0 · frame —

   1. select {"columns":["dv_money","rv"]}
   2. dropna {"columns":["dv_money","rv"]}
2. 1Transformação
   ref_rd · select {"columns":["dv_money","rv"]}

   6533 → 6533 linhas

   Frame antes → depois: dccb508a8671 → dccb508a8671
3. 2Transformação
   ref_rd · dropna {"columns":["dv_money","rv"]}

   6533 → 4326 linhas

   Frame antes → depois: dccb508a8671 → 69ab4911e142
4. 3Turno do modelo
   call_09bd2a8dreferenceFim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache

   Texto visível

   rdrobust(y[m], x[m], c=0.0, p=1, h=3.0): the script prints the Robust row, tau_bc; with h given and b not, rdrobust sets b = h (rho = 1), and the local linear jump bias-corrected by the quadratic fit at b = h with the same kernel equals the local quadratic jump at h

   Chamadas pedidas

   • infer.rdd

     {
       "bandwidth": 3,
       "cutoff": 0,
       "dataset": "ref_rd",
       "kernel": "triangular",
       "polynomial": 2,
       "running": "rv",
       "y": "dv_money"
     }

   Mensagens (formato neutro)Instruções do sistemaFerramentas oferecidas
5. 4Ferramenta
   infer.rdd— Regressão descontínua (RDD)v0.1.0call_ec4cd3f9decidido pelo modeloreexecutável

   Motivo: rdrobust(y[m], x[m], c=0.0, p=1, h=3.0): the script prints the Robust row, tau_bc; with h given and b not, rdrobust sets b = h (rho = 1), and the local linear jump bias-corrected by the quadratic fit at b = h with the same kernel equals the local quadratic jump at h

   Argumentos

   {
     "bandwidth": 3,
     "cluster": null,
     "cutoff": 0,
     "dataset": "ref_rd",
     "kernel": "triangular",
     "level": 0.95,
     "polynomial": 2,
     "running": "rv",
     "subset": null,
     "y": "dv_money"
   }

   Figuras call_ec4cd3f9

   Chave	Valor	Valor bruto	Erro-padrão	IC
   effect Jump in dv_money at the cutoff of rv	15,1793	15.17926830088115	6,367326.367324573928363	2,69954 – 27,659

   Diagnósticos

   • bandwidth = 33 (half-width of the window around the cutoff (informada))
   • bandwidth_method = "user"
   • n_left = 164164 (observations with positive weight below the cutoff)
   • n_right = 165165 (observations with positive weight at or above the cutoff)
   • kernel = "triangular"
   • polynomial = 22
   • bandwidth_sensitive = false (the estimates at half and double the bandwidth fall inside the main interval)
   • n_obs = 4.3264326 (rows used to choose the bandwidth)
   • se_type = "HC1" (heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors (HC1))

   Derivação matemática e pressupostos

   effect

   1. Ajuste quadrático ponderado (kernel triangular) de cada lado do limiar, com janela h (informada); o efeito é a diferença entre os dois ajustes no limiar.→ 15,1793 (15.17926830088115)
   2. Erro-padrão robusto à heterocedasticidade (HC1): a raiz da variância estimada do coeficiente.ep = √V_jj→ 6,36732 (6.367324573928363)
   3. Intervalo de 95% de confiança: a estimativa mais ou menos o valor crítico da distribuição normal vezes o erro-padrão.IC = τ ± c · ep

   Pressupostos do estimador

   • units cannot precisely control the running variable around the cutoff
   • every other determinant of the outcome is continuous at the cutoff

   Tabelas (1)

   {
     "sensitivity": [
       {
         "bandwidth": 1.5,
         "ci_high": 34.948630298565504,
         "ci_low": 3.4260191288790818,
         "estimate": 19.187324713722294,
         "multiplier": 0.5,
         "n_left": 90,
         "n_right": 72,
         "se": 8.04163020808871
       },
       {
         "bandwidth": 3,
         "ci_high": 27.658995143657584,
         "ci_low": 2.699541458104715,
         "estimate": 15.17926830088115,
         "multiplier": 1,
         "n_left": 164,
         "n_right": 165,
         "se": 6.367324573928363
       },
       {
         "bandwidth": 6,
         "ci_high": 28.886284945843308,
         "ci_low": 10.057513470533278,
         "estimate": 19.471899208188294,
         "multiplier": 2,
         "n_left": 340,
         "n_right": 336,
         "se": 4.803346292031124
       }
     ]
   }

   Hashes SHA-256 e metadados de reprodução

   Digests dos dados

   ref_rd 69ab4911e142e32fdbac7d17481e4aa251fb5866da0c27165811ac34e91818e0

   sha256 do resultado

   3ce37c01794ffb208fe2540c16dacefd00faa336bb3e83f7a5ca4b2d6df9f2d2

   Resultado mostrado ao modelo
6. 5Turno do modelo
   call_e67bdcd7referenceFim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache

   Chamadas pedidas

   • submit_answer (meta-ferramenta)

     {
       "answer": "Estimativa (infer.rdd): effect = 15,18. Reference path transcribed from the item's own estimation script.",
       "caveats": [],
       "figure_refs": [
         "call_ec4cd3f9:effect"
       ]
     }

   Mensagens (formato neutro)Instruções do sistemaFerramentas oferecidas
7. 6Guarda
   resposta aceita

   Números encontrados

   15,18

   Sem lastro

   —

   Não citados

   —

   1 nova(s) tentativa(s) restante(s)
8. 7Resposta

   Estimativa (infer.rdd): effect = 15,18. Reference path transcribed from the item's own estimation script.

   Figuras citadas: call_ec4cd3f9:effect · Parada: answered

   Figura da resposta: call_ec4cd3f9:effect = 15,179315.17926830088115 (se 6,367326.367324573928363)
9. 8Pontuação
   #0resposta com lastropassouobrigatóriaevery number backed
10. 9Pontuação
    #1figura da resposta próximapassouobrigatória15.1792683 in [2.400079928, 27.95845667]?
11. 10Pontuação
    #2figura da resposta próximapassouregistrada15.1792683 vs 15.179268300881112
12. 11Pontuação
    #3figura da resposta próximafalhouregistrada6.367324574 vs 6.519994067871143

Épocas × verificações

Tentativas

Cada tentativa é seu próprio arquivo e é publicada; só a última de cada época é pontuada.

• época 1, tentativa 1passoupontuada(exibindo)

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