Tarefa crb_papers.q028

Veredito

Pergunta feita ao analista

Among municipalities that switched to council decision-making in 2006, how large was the change in the ordinary naturalization rate from 2005 to 2007 compared with municipalities still using citizen referendums in 2007?

Como o agente resolveu e como foi validado

Resumo passo a passo do que o agente executou, por que o caminho está correto e como cada verificação conferiu o resultado.

1. 1Preparação da base de dados
   ds_0015— | Variable Name | Description | | --- | --- | | bfs | Swiss Federal Statistical Office (BFS) municipality code: a stable numeric identifier for each municipality in the panel. | | year | Calendar year of the observation (1991–2009). Institutional status is referenced as of January 1 of the given year, and annual rates are computed for the same year. | | nat_rate_ord | Ordinary naturalization rate (percent). Computed as the number of ordinary naturalizations recorded during the year divided by the stock of foreign residents who met statutory eligibility at the start of the year in the same municipality, multiplied by 100. Ordinary naturalizations refer to the standard pathway (as opposed to federally handled “facilitated” cases). | | indirect | Local decision procedure in place on January 1: 1 if applications were decided by the elected municipal council (representative/indirect democracy); 0 if applications were decided by citizens in a local vote (direct democracy). | Dataset Context: This dataset is an annual municipality–year panel for Switzerland that spans a period of institutional change in how local authorities decide on citizenship applications. Switzerland’s “triple citizenship” system assigns a central role to municipalities in evaluating and deciding ordinary naturalization requests. During the 1990s and 2000s, municipalities used different decision procedures: in some, citizens voted on applications (often at a citizens’ assembly and, historically in a few places, by ballot); in others, elected municipal councils rendered the decisions. A series of Swiss Federal Court rulings in 2003–2005 curtailed secret-ballot referendums for naturalizations and required municipalities to provide formal justifications for rejections. Several cantons subsequently updated their laws, and many municipalities revised or formalized their procedures, frequently shifting decision authority to municipal councils. The indicator in this file captures, for each municipality and year, which procedure was in force as of January 1. The panel combines two types of information. First, administrative registers from the Swiss Federal Statistical Office (PETRA: Foreign Population Structure and Migration Statistics) are used to derive annual ordinary naturalization rates. These rates are constructed as ordinary naturalizations completed within a year divided by the number of foreign residents who met the legal eligibility criteria at the start of that year, providing a comparable percentage measure across municipalities and over time. Second, the coding of local decision procedures relies on a nationwide survey of municipal head secretaries and systematic compilation of cantonal regulations and court decisions. The measurement convention aligns the institutional status to January 1 to enhance comparability across municipalities, recognizing that formal switches may occur during a calendar year. Ordinary naturalizations represent the standard route to citizenship and, in the study period, typically occurred after lengthy processing that could extend several years from initial application to final local vote. Facilitated naturalizations—handled centrally under federal law (for example, for certain spouses of Swiss citizens)—are not included in the numerator of the ordinary naturalization rate. The resulting dataset provides a consistent view of local institutions and annual naturalization activity across more than a decade and a half, covering the pre- and post-reform environment in which many municipalities updated their decision-making arrangements.
   ref_first
   ref_panel
   ref_years
2. 2Chamada que gerou a resposta finalinfer.ols(Regressão linear por mínimos quadrados ordinários (MQO))citada na resposta

   Ver chamada call_a44b7a7f nos detalhes

   Linha de base ingênua: regressão do resultado no tratamento, sem controles.

   Por que este é o caminho de referência: sm.OLS(y, add_constant([group_treated, post, g_post])).fit(cov_type='cluster', groups=bfs) (CR1 errors with statsmodels' default G/(G-1)·(N-1)/(N-K) correction)
   Argumentos principais

   dataset:

   "ds_0015"

   intercept:

   true

   level:

   0,950.95

   se:

   "HC1"

   x:

   ["indirect"]

   y:

   "nat_rate_ord"

   Resultado calculado

   • coef.indirect = 1,10754 1.1075427774305522
     Coefficient on indirect in the regression of nat_rate_ord
   Diagnósticos: n_obs = 22.97122971 (observations used) · k = 22 (parameters estimated, fixed-effect dummies included) · r2 = 0,01318350.013183467242530722 · df_resid = 22.96922969 · se_type = "HC1" (heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors (HC1))
3. 3Conferência de lastro e resposta final

   Todos os 1 números escritos na resposta foram conferidos contra as ferramentas e o enunciado (nenhum número sem lastro).

   Números encontrados: 1,108
   Figuras citadas: call_a44b7a7f:coef.indirect
   • ✓
     #0resposta com lastro

     every number traced to a tool call or the question
   • ✓
     #1figura da resposta próxima

     CRB estimate_within_solution_ci: the answer figure inside the gold 95% interval effect ± 1.96·|SE| of source crb_papers.q028.gold (closed, evaluate_result.py; no --auto-rescale)
   • ✗
     #2figura da resposta próxima

     replication cell: the gold effect to rel 1e-6 (abs floor 1e-6·SE); never required
   • ✗
     #3figura da resposta próxima

     replication cell: the gold SE to rel 1e-6; never required

Valores esperados e de onde vêm

Verificações

Caminho de referência e caminho do agente

A chamada de referência ao lado da chamada que deu a resposta, argumento por argumento.

Trajetória

Cada evento na ordem em que aconteceu: turnos do modelo, chamadas de ferramentas, guardas, transformações e pontuação.

1. 0Início

   Among municipalities that switched to council decision-making in 2006, how large was the change in the ordinary naturalization rate from 2005 to 2007 compared with municipalities still using citizen referendums in 2007?

   ds_0015 (agent)

   | Variable Name | Description | | --- | --- | | bfs | Swiss Federal Statistical Office (BFS) municipality code: a stable numeric identifier for each municipality in the panel. | | year | Calendar year of the observation (1991–2009). Institutional status is referenced as of January 1 of the given year, and annual rates are computed for the same year. | | nat_rate_ord | Ordinary naturalization rate (percent). Computed as the number of ordinary naturalizations recorded during the year divided by the stock of foreign residents who met statutory eligibility at the start of the year in the same municipality, multiplied by 100. Ordinary naturalizations refer to the standard pathway (as opposed to federally handled “facilitated” cases). | | indirect | Local decision procedure in place on January 1: 1 if applications were decided by the elected municipal council (representative/indirect democracy); 0 if applications were decided by citizens in a local vote (direct democracy). | Dataset Context: This dataset is an annual municipality–year panel for Switzerland that spans a period of institutional change in how local authorities decide on citizenship applications. Switzerland’s “triple citizenship” system assigns a central role to municipalities in evaluating and deciding ordinary naturalization requests. During the 1990s and 2000s, municipalities used different decision procedures: in some, citizens voted on applications (often at a citizens’ assembly and, historically in a few places, by ballot); in others, elected municipal councils rendered the decisions. A series of Swiss Federal Court rulings in 2003–2005 curtailed secret-ballot referendums for naturalizations and required municipalities to provide formal justifications for rejections. Several cantons subsequently updated their laws, and many municipalities revised or formalized their procedures, frequently shifting decision authority to municipal councils. The indicator in this file captures, for each municipality and year, which procedure was in force as of January 1. The panel combines two types of information. First, administrative registers from the Swiss Federal Statistical Office (PETRA: Foreign Population Structure and Migration Statistics) are used to derive annual ordinary naturalization rates. These rates are constructed as ordinary naturalizations completed within a year divided by the number of foreign residents who met the legal eligibility criteria at the start of that year, providing a comparable percentage measure across municipalities and over time. Second, the coding of local decision procedures relies on a nationwide survey of municipal head secretaries and systematic compilation of cantonal regulations and court decisions. The measurement convention aligns the institutional status to January 1 to enhance comparability across municipalities, recognizing that formal switches may occur during a calendar year. Ordinary naturalizations represent the standard route to citizenship and, in the study period, typically occurred after lengthy processing that could extend several years from initial application to final local vote. Facilitated naturalizations—handled centrally under federal law (for example, for certain spouses of Swiss citizens)—are not included in the numerator of the ordinary naturalization rate. The resulting dataset provides a consistent view of local institutions and annual naturalization activity across more than a decade and a half, covering the pre- and post-reform environment in which many municipalities updated their decision-making arrangements.

   file e9ce75e30cb08926da17f27cb91ecb80f964f077f9a592e052d672b61239e8f9 · frame —

   ref_first (reference)

   file e9ce75e30cb08926da17f27cb91ecb80f964f077f9a592e052d672b61239e8f9 · frame —

   1. select {"columns":["bfs","year","nat_rate_ord","indirect"]}
   2. dropna {"columns":["bfs","year","nat_rate_ord"]}
   3. filter {"query":"indirect == 1"}
   4. collapse {"aggs":[{"column":"year","fn":"min","name":"sw"}],"by":["bfs"]}

   ref_panel (reference)

   file e9ce75e30cb08926da17f27cb91ecb80f964f077f9a592e052d672b61239e8f9 · frame —

   1. select {"columns":["bfs","year","nat_rate_ord","indirect"]}
   2. dropna {"columns":["bfs","year","nat_rate_ord"]}
   3. filter {"query":"year in [2005, 2007]"}
   4. merge {"how":"left","on":["bfs"],"with":"ref_first"}
   5. merge {"how":"left","on":["bfs"],"with":"ref_years"}
   6. filter {"query":"nyears == 2 and (sw == 2006 or sw > 2007 or sw != sw)"}
   7. derive {"args":{"cmp":"eq","column":"sw","value":2006},"name":"group_treated","op":"indicator"}
   8. derive {"args":{"column":"group_treated","default":0,"keep_unmapped":false,"mapping":[{"source":1,"target":1}]},"name":"group_treated","op":"map"}
   9. derive {"args":{"cmp":"eq","column":"year","value":2007},"name":"post","op":"indicator"}
   10. derive {"args":{"columns":["group_treated","post"]},"name":"g_post","op":"interaction"}

   ref_years (reference)

   file e9ce75e30cb08926da17f27cb91ecb80f964f077f9a592e052d672b61239e8f9 · frame —

   1. select {"columns":["bfs","year","nat_rate_ord","indirect"]}
   2. dropna {"columns":["bfs","year","nat_rate_ord"]}
   3. filter {"query":"year in [2005, 2007]"}
   4. collapse {"aggs":[{"column":"nat_rate_ord","fn":"count","name":"n"}],"by":["bfs","year"]}
   5. collapse {"aggs":[{"column":"n","fn":"count","name":"nyears"}],"by":["bfs"]}
2. 1Turno do modelo
   call_d9589ed4naive-olsFim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache

   Texto visível

   Linha de base ingênua: regressão do resultado no tratamento, sem controles.

   Chamadas pedidas

   • infer.ols

     {
       "dataset": "ds_0015",
       "x": [
         "indirect"
       ],
       "y": "nat_rate_ord"
     }

   Mensagens (formato neutro)Instruções do sistemaFerramentas oferecidas
3. 2Ferramenta
   infer.ols— Regressão linear por mínimos quadrados ordinários (MQO)v0.1.0call_a44b7a7fdecidido pelo modeloreexecutável

   Motivo: Linha de base ingênua: regressão do resultado no tratamento, sem controles.

   Argumentos

   {
     "cluster": null,
     "controls": [],
     "dataset": "ds_0015",
     "fe": [],
     "intercept": true,
     "level": 0.95,
     "se": "HC1",
     "subset": null,
     "weights": null,
     "x": [
       "indirect"
     ],
     "y": "nat_rate_ord"
   }

   Figuras call_a44b7a7f

   Chave	Valor	Valor bruto	Erro-padrão	IC
   coef.indirect Coefficient on indirect in the regression of nat_rate_ord	1,10754	1.1075427774305522	0,06451480.06451484468650168	0,981089 – 1,234

   Diagnósticos

   • n_obs = 22.97122971 (observations used)
   • k = 22 (parameters estimated, fixed-effect dummies included)
   • r2 = 0,01318350.013183467242530722
   • df_resid = 22.96922969
   • se_type = "HC1" (heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors (HC1))
   • n_clusters = — (errors not clustered)

   Derivação matemática e pressupostos

   coef.indirect

   1. Coeficiente de indirect na regressão por mínimos quadrados ordinários de nat_rate_ord.→ 1,10754 (1.1075427774305522)
   2. Erro-padrão robusto à heterocedasticidade (HC1): a raiz da variância estimada do coeficiente.ep = √V_jj→ 0,0645148 (0.06451484468650168)
   3. Intervalo de 95% de confiança: a estimativa mais ou menos o valor crítico da distribuição t de Student com 22969 graus de liberdade vezes o erro-padrão.IC = β ± c · ep

   Pressupostos do estimador

   • the conditional mean of the outcome is linear in the regressors
   • errors are independent across observations; their variance may differ

   Tabelas (1)

   {
     "coefficients": [
       {
         "ci_high": 2.163938338040925,
         "ci_low": 2.022415071555584,
         "coef": 2.0931767047982546,
         "p": 0,
         "se": 0.03610163501934651,
         "t": 57.98010820497581,
         "term": "Intercept"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 1.2339962130150524,
         "ci_low": 0.981089341846052,
         "coef": 1.1075427774305522,
         "p": 1.1999450149136743e-65,
         "se": 0.06451484468650168,
         "t": 17.16725480488185,
         "term": "indirect"
       }
     ]
   }

   Hashes SHA-256 e metadados de reprodução

   Digests dos dados

   ds_0015 b496d06ec0c7d2b154edeec08a7016063e29d7d7eba5abaf6e923cc1f6d5c7ee

   sha256 do resultado

   c57101ca11e0c789d3e8319f7a30cf055f820d42611e8c212e5a4122f192075b

   Resultado mostrado ao modelo
4. 3Turno do modelo
   call_d0e1c6f4naive-olsFim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache

   Chamadas pedidas

   • submit_answer (meta-ferramenta)

     {
       "answer": "Estimativa ingênua (infer.ols): coef.indirect = 1,108.",
       "caveats": [],
       "figure_refs": [
         "call_a44b7a7f:coef.indirect"
       ]
     }

   Mensagens (formato neutro)Instruções do sistemaFerramentas oferecidas
5. 4Guarda
   resposta aceita

   Números encontrados

   1,108

   Sem lastro

   —

   Não citados

   —

   1 nova(s) tentativa(s) restante(s)
6. 5Resposta

   Estimativa ingênua (infer.ols): coef.indirect = 1,108.

   Figuras citadas: call_a44b7a7f:coef.indirect · Parada: answered

   Figura da resposta: call_a44b7a7f:coef.indirect = 1,107541.1075427774305522 (se 0,06451480.06451484468650168)
7. 6Pontuação
   #0resposta com lastropassouobrigatóriaevery number backed
8. 7Pontuação
   #1figura da resposta próximapassouobrigatória1.107542777 in [0.02344141281, 2.449828161]?
9. 8Pontuação
   #2figura da resposta próximafalhouregistrada1.107542777 vs 1.236634786812406
10. 9Pontuação
    #3figura da resposta próximafalhouregistrada0.06451484469 vs 0.6189762112257445

Épocas × verificações

Tentativas

Cada tentativa é seu próprio arquivo e é publicada; só a última de cada época é pontuada.

• época 1, tentativa 1passoupontuada(exibindo)

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