Tarefa crb_papers.q051

Veredito

Pergunta feita ao analista

How did logged district capital expenditures per capita change in 2010 in districts holding a district head election that year versus districts that did not hold an election that year (restricting to districts without an election the year prior)?

Como o agente resolveu e como foi validado

Resumo passo a passo do que o agente executou, por que o caminho está correto e como cada verificação conferiu o resultado.

1. 1Preparação da base de dados
   ds_0027— | Variable Name | Description | | --- | --- | | year | Calendar year of observation for the district-level fiscal and political records (2001–2012). | | kode_neil | Harmonized district identifier that tracks administrative units across boundary changes and splits to maintain longitudinal comparability. | | personnel_sh | Share of total realized district expenditures allocated to personnel (wages, salaries, allowances); expressed as a fraction between 0 and 1. | | capital_sh | Share of total realized district expenditures allocated to capital investment (e.g., infrastructure, equipment); expressed as a fraction between 0 and 1. | | ltotalexp_all_pc | Natural log of total realized district government expenditures per capita (rupiah per resident). | | lcapital_exp_pc | Natural log of realized district capital expenditures per capita (rupiah per resident). | | incumbency | Indicator for whether the sitting district head is a candidate in that year (1=yes, 0=no); relevant in years when district head elections are held. | | services_provision | Standardized index summarizing local service delivery (sanitation access, clean water access, school enrollment, skilled birth attendance, and road quality); higher values indicate better provision. | | lgdppc_l | Natural log of district GDP per capita from official statistics, lagged one year. | | lpop_l | Natural log of the district’s population, lagged one year. | | rev_total_pc2_l | Total district revenue per capita from all sources (including general transfers and revenue sharing), lagged one year; measured in rupiah per resident. | | rev_natural_pc_l | Shared natural resource revenues (intergovernmental revenue sharing tied to extractive resources) per capita, lagged one year; measured in rupiah per resident. | | poverty_pc_l | Fraction of the district population below the official poverty line, lagged one year (0–1 scale). | | gini_l | Gini index of consumption inequality from household survey data, lagged one year (0–100 scale; higher = more unequal). | | elected_leader_l | Indicator that the district head position is filled by direct popular election (1) versus selection by the local legislature (0), lagged one year; direct elections were rolled out beginning in 2005. | | golkar_share_all | Vote share of the Golkar party in the district’s legislative elections (compiled from 1999 and 2004 results); expressed as a fraction between 0 and 1. | | pdip_share_all | Vote share of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI–P) in the district’s legislative elections (compiled from 1999 and 2004 results); expressed as a fraction between 0 and 1. | | enp_all | Effective number of parties in the district legislature (Laakso–Taagepera index); higher values indicate more fragmented party systems. | | election_year | Indicator that a district head election is held in the current calendar year (1=yes, 0=no); reflects the local executive election calendar. | | election_year_l | Indicator for the year immediately preceding a district head election (lead-up year; 1=yes, 0=no). | | election_year_lead1 | Indicator for the year immediately following a district head election (post-election year; 1=yes, 0=no). | Dataset Context: This panel assembles district-by-year information for Indonesia’s post-decentralization era, covering 2001–2012. Fiscal figures are realized (executed) budgets from the Ministry of Finance and use the national economic classification that separates outlays into capital investment, goods and services, and personnel. Revenue items distinguish general-purpose transfers and shared natural resource revenues alongside locally generated revenue. Where noted, variables are expressed per capita using contemporaneous district population counts, and several key covariates are provided in natural logs to reduce skew. Political characteristics capture the local partisan environment and institutional arrangements. District-level party vote shares are compiled from the 1999 and 2004 legislative elections to describe the baseline partisan landscape. The effective number of parties quantifies legislative fragmentation. Indonesia shifted from indirect selection of district heads by local legislatures (1999–2004) to direct popular elections beginning in 2005. The initial schedule of local executive contests was phased according to pre-existing appointment terms, producing staggered election years across districts. Indicators mark the election year itself as well as the years immediately before and after. Socioeconomic and service delivery measures come from official statistics agencies and large-scale household surveys (including Susenas). The services index combines access and quality proxies—sanitation, clean water, school enrollment, skilled birth attendance, and road conditions—standardized so that higher values indicate stronger provision. Inequality (Gini) and poverty rates are derived from household consumption data. Variables with the “_l” suffix are lagged one calendar year to reflect prior conditions relative to the current budget year. The administrative map of Indonesia evolved substantially during this period due to district proliferation. The dataset harmonizes identifiers to follow units through splits, yielding an unbalanced panel by design. Users should note that national statistical agencies implemented notable survey and weighting changes around 2011; while the panel extends through 2012, comparability for certain survey-based indicators across this redesign may warrant caution. District governments largely finance spending through intergovernmental transfers and shared revenues, as local borrowing was highly restricted during these years. Overall, the dataset provides a consolidated view of local public finance, political structure, and socioeconomic context during Indonesia’s early decentralization and direct local election era.
   ref_panel
   ref_post
   ref_pre
2. 2Chamada que gerou a resposta finalinfer.ols(Regressão linear por mínimos quadrados ordinários (MQO))citada na resposta

   Ver chamada call_09c7bb00 nos detalhes

   Linha de base ingênua: regressão do resultado no tratamento, sem controles.

   Por que este é o caminho de referência: sm.OLS(y, add_constant([TreatGroup, Post, DiD])).fit(cov_type='cluster', groups=kode_neil) (CR1 errors with statsmodels' default G/(G-1)·(N-1)/(N-K) correction)
   Argumentos principais

   dataset:

   "ds_0027"

   intercept:

   true

   level:

   0,950.95

   se:

   "HC1"

   x:

   ["election_year"]

   y:

   "lcapital_exp_pc"

   Resultado calculado

   • coef.election_year = 0,112438 0.11243804212457445
     Coefficient on election_year in the regression of lcapital_exp_pc
   Diagnósticos: n_obs = 5.0465046 (observations used) · k = 22 (parameters estimated, fixed-effect dummies included) · r2 = 0,001312860.0013128572019270868 · df_resid = 5.0445044 · se_type = "HC1" (heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors (HC1))
3. 3Conferência de lastro e resposta final

   Todos os 1 números escritos na resposta foram conferidos contra as ferramentas e o enunciado (nenhum número sem lastro).

   Números encontrados: 0,1124
   Figuras citadas: call_09c7bb00:coef.election_year
   • ✓
     #0resposta com lastro

     every number traced to a tool call or the question
   • ✗
     #1figura da resposta próxima

     CRB estimate_within_solution_ci: the answer figure inside the gold 95% interval effect ± 1.96·|SE| of source crb_papers.q051.gold (closed, evaluate_result.py; no --auto-rescale)
   • ✗
     #2figura da resposta próxima

     replication cell: the gold effect to rel 1e-6 (abs floor 1e-6·SE); never required
   • ✗
     #3figura da resposta próxima

     replication cell: the gold SE to rel 1e-6; never required

Valores esperados e de onde vêm

Verificações

Caminho de referência e caminho do agente

A chamada de referência ao lado da chamada que deu a resposta, argumento por argumento.

Trajetória

Cada evento na ordem em que aconteceu: turnos do modelo, chamadas de ferramentas, guardas, transformações e pontuação.

1. 0Início

   How did logged district capital expenditures per capita change in 2010 in districts holding a district head election that year versus districts that did not hold an election that year (restricting to districts without an election the year prior)?

   ds_0027 (agent)

   | Variable Name | Description | | --- | --- | | year | Calendar year of observation for the district-level fiscal and political records (2001–2012). | | kode_neil | Harmonized district identifier that tracks administrative units across boundary changes and splits to maintain longitudinal comparability. | | personnel_sh | Share of total realized district expenditures allocated to personnel (wages, salaries, allowances); expressed as a fraction between 0 and 1. | | capital_sh | Share of total realized district expenditures allocated to capital investment (e.g., infrastructure, equipment); expressed as a fraction between 0 and 1. | | ltotalexp_all_pc | Natural log of total realized district government expenditures per capita (rupiah per resident). | | lcapital_exp_pc | Natural log of realized district capital expenditures per capita (rupiah per resident). | | incumbency | Indicator for whether the sitting district head is a candidate in that year (1=yes, 0=no); relevant in years when district head elections are held. | | services_provision | Standardized index summarizing local service delivery (sanitation access, clean water access, school enrollment, skilled birth attendance, and road quality); higher values indicate better provision. | | lgdppc_l | Natural log of district GDP per capita from official statistics, lagged one year. | | lpop_l | Natural log of the district’s population, lagged one year. | | rev_total_pc2_l | Total district revenue per capita from all sources (including general transfers and revenue sharing), lagged one year; measured in rupiah per resident. | | rev_natural_pc_l | Shared natural resource revenues (intergovernmental revenue sharing tied to extractive resources) per capita, lagged one year; measured in rupiah per resident. | | poverty_pc_l | Fraction of the district population below the official poverty line, lagged one year (0–1 scale). | | gini_l | Gini index of consumption inequality from household survey data, lagged one year (0–100 scale; higher = more unequal). | | elected_leader_l | Indicator that the district head position is filled by direct popular election (1) versus selection by the local legislature (0), lagged one year; direct elections were rolled out beginning in 2005. | | golkar_share_all | Vote share of the Golkar party in the district’s legislative elections (compiled from 1999 and 2004 results); expressed as a fraction between 0 and 1. | | pdip_share_all | Vote share of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI–P) in the district’s legislative elections (compiled from 1999 and 2004 results); expressed as a fraction between 0 and 1. | | enp_all | Effective number of parties in the district legislature (Laakso–Taagepera index); higher values indicate more fragmented party systems. | | election_year | Indicator that a district head election is held in the current calendar year (1=yes, 0=no); reflects the local executive election calendar. | | election_year_l | Indicator for the year immediately preceding a district head election (lead-up year; 1=yes, 0=no). | | election_year_lead1 | Indicator for the year immediately following a district head election (post-election year; 1=yes, 0=no). | Dataset Context: This panel assembles district-by-year information for Indonesia’s post-decentralization era, covering 2001–2012. Fiscal figures are realized (executed) budgets from the Ministry of Finance and use the national economic classification that separates outlays into capital investment, goods and services, and personnel. Revenue items distinguish general-purpose transfers and shared natural resource revenues alongside locally generated revenue. Where noted, variables are expressed per capita using contemporaneous district population counts, and several key covariates are provided in natural logs to reduce skew. Political characteristics capture the local partisan environment and institutional arrangements. District-level party vote shares are compiled from the 1999 and 2004 legislative elections to describe the baseline partisan landscape. The effective number of parties quantifies legislative fragmentation. Indonesia shifted from indirect selection of district heads by local legislatures (1999–2004) to direct popular elections beginning in 2005. The initial schedule of local executive contests was phased according to pre-existing appointment terms, producing staggered election years across districts. Indicators mark the election year itself as well as the years immediately before and after. Socioeconomic and service delivery measures come from official statistics agencies and large-scale household surveys (including Susenas). The services index combines access and quality proxies—sanitation, clean water, school enrollment, skilled birth attendance, and road conditions—standardized so that higher values indicate stronger provision. Inequality (Gini) and poverty rates are derived from household consumption data. Variables with the “_l” suffix are lagged one calendar year to reflect prior conditions relative to the current budget year. The administrative map of Indonesia evolved substantially during this period due to district proliferation. The dataset harmonizes identifiers to follow units through splits, yielding an unbalanced panel by design. Users should note that national statistical agencies implemented notable survey and weighting changes around 2011; while the panel extends through 2012, comparability for certain survey-based indicators across this redesign may warrant caution. District governments largely finance spending through intergovernmental transfers and shared revenues, as local borrowing was highly restricted during these years. Overall, the dataset provides a consolidated view of local public finance, political structure, and socioeconomic context during Indonesia’s early decentralization and direct local election era.

   file e02ae6b363d47cf0f76a5fc37d88e1f8ffc08c6b9f51eee68d0b5d6b12c2d727 · frame —

   ref_panel (reference)

   file e02ae6b363d47cf0f76a5fc37d88e1f8ffc08c6b9f51eee68d0b5d6b12c2d727 · frame —

   1. select {"columns":["lcapital_exp_pc","election_year","kode_neil","year"]}
   2. dropna {"columns":["lcapital_exp_pc","election_year","kode_neil","year"]}
   3. filter {"query":"year in [2009, 2010]"}
   4. merge {"how":"inner","on":["kode_neil"],"with":"ref_pre"}
   5. merge {"how":"inner","on":["kode_neil"],"with":"ref_post"}
   6. filter {"query":"t0 == 0 and (t1 == 1 or t1 == 0)"}
   7. derive {"args":{"cmp":"eq","column":"t1","value":1},"name":"TreatGroup","op":"indicator"}
   8. derive {"args":{"cmp":"eq","column":"year","value":2010},"name":"Post","op":"indicator"}
   9. derive {"args":{"columns":["TreatGroup","Post"]},"name":"DiD","op":"interaction"}

   ref_post (reference)

   file e02ae6b363d47cf0f76a5fc37d88e1f8ffc08c6b9f51eee68d0b5d6b12c2d727 · frame —

   1. select {"columns":["lcapital_exp_pc","election_year","kode_neil","year"]}
   2. dropna {"columns":["lcapital_exp_pc","election_year","kode_neil","year"]}
   3. filter {"query":"year == 2010"}
   4. select {"columns":["kode_neil","election_year"]}
   5. rename {"map":{"election_year":"t1"}}

   ref_pre (reference)

   file e02ae6b363d47cf0f76a5fc37d88e1f8ffc08c6b9f51eee68d0b5d6b12c2d727 · frame —

   1. select {"columns":["lcapital_exp_pc","election_year","kode_neil","year"]}
   2. dropna {"columns":["lcapital_exp_pc","election_year","kode_neil","year"]}
   3. filter {"query":"year == 2009"}
   4. select {"columns":["kode_neil","election_year"]}
   5. rename {"map":{"election_year":"t0"}}
2. 1Turno do modelo
   call_7bf618b0naive-olsFim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache

   Texto visível

   Linha de base ingênua: regressão do resultado no tratamento, sem controles.

   Chamadas pedidas

   • infer.ols

     {
       "dataset": "ds_0027",
       "x": [
         "election_year"
       ],
       "y": "lcapital_exp_pc"
     }

   Mensagens (formato neutro)Instruções do sistemaFerramentas oferecidas
3. 2Ferramenta
   infer.ols— Regressão linear por mínimos quadrados ordinários (MQO)v0.1.0call_09c7bb00decidido pelo modeloreexecutável

   Motivo: Linha de base ingênua: regressão do resultado no tratamento, sem controles.

   Argumentos

   {
     "cluster": null,
     "controls": [],
     "dataset": "ds_0027",
     "fe": [],
     "intercept": true,
     "level": 0.95,
     "se": "HC1",
     "subset": null,
     "weights": null,
     "x": [
       "election_year"
     ],
     "y": "lcapital_exp_pc"
   }

   Figuras call_09c7bb00

   Chave	Valor	Valor bruto	Erro-padrão	IC
   coef.election_year Coefficient on election_year in the regression of lcapital_exp_pc	0,112438	0.11243804212457445	0,04467790.04467788270993699	0,02485 – 0,200026

   Diagnósticos

   • n_obs = 5.0465046 (observations used)
   • k = 22 (parameters estimated, fixed-effect dummies included)
   • r2 = 0,001312860.0013128572019270868
   • df_resid = 5.0445044
   • se_type = "HC1" (heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors (HC1))
   • n_clusters = — (errors not clustered)

   Derivação matemática e pressupostos

   coef.election_year

   1. Coeficiente de election_year na regressão por mínimos quadrados ordinários de lcapital_exp_pc.→ 0,112438 (0.11243804212457445)
   2. Erro-padrão robusto à heterocedasticidade (HC1): a raiz da variância estimada do coeficiente.ep = √V_jj→ 0,0446779 (0.04467788270993699)
   3. Intervalo de 95% de confiança: a estimativa mais ou menos o valor crítico da distribuição t de Student com 5044 graus de liberdade vezes o erro-padrão.IC = β ± c · ep

   Pressupostos do estimador

   • the conditional mean of the outcome is linear in the regressors
   • errors are independent across observations; their variance may differ

   Tabelas (1)

   {
     "coefficients": [
       {
         "ci_high": 12.95725482312203,
         "ci_low": 12.889751020657828,
         "coef": 12.923502921889929,
         "p": 0,
         "se": 0.017216541927267497,
         "t": 750.6445241144351,
         "term": "Intercept"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.20002610079835967,
         "ci_low": 0.02484998345078923,
         "coef": 0.11243804212457445,
         "p": 0.011878832851659468,
         "se": 0.04467788270993699,
         "t": 2.516637658381395,
         "term": "election_year"
       }
     ]
   }

   • 1841 rows were dropped because one of 'lcapital_exp_pc', 'election_year' was missing

   Hashes SHA-256 e metadados de reprodução

   Digests dos dados

   ds_0027 34e6aab5839bb0d13885f393ef3301fae7aaba436c2973fc095e08870341facd

   sha256 do resultado

   2d822184ddf27968745313fb2816c53944df24177a86716b6f9c811bb88e1fa7

   Resultado mostrado ao modelo
4. 3Turno do modelo
   call_921a668bnaive-olsFim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache

   Chamadas pedidas

   • submit_answer (meta-ferramenta)

     {
       "answer": "Estimativa ingênua (infer.ols): coef.election_year = 0,1124.",
       "caveats": [],
       "figure_refs": [
         "call_09c7bb00:coef.election_year"
       ]
     }

   Mensagens (formato neutro)Instruções do sistemaFerramentas oferecidas
5. 4Guarda
   resposta aceita

   Números encontrados

   0,1124

   Sem lastro

   —

   Não citados

   —

   1 nova(s) tentativa(s) restante(s)
6. 5Resposta

   Estimativa ingênua (infer.ols): coef.election_year = 0,1124.

   Figuras citadas: call_09c7bb00:coef.election_year · Parada: answered

   Figura da resposta: call_09c7bb00:coef.election_year = 0,1124380.11243804212457445 (se 0,04467790.04467788270993699)
7. 6Pontuação
   #0resposta com lastropassouobrigatóriaevery number backed
8. 7Pontuação
   #1figura da resposta próximafalhouobrigatória0.1124380421 in [-0.3051840721, -0.04680777739]?
9. 8Pontuação
   #2figura da resposta próximafalhouregistrada0.1124380421 vs -0.17599592472724762
10. 9Pontuação
    #3figura da resposta próximafalhouregistrada0.04467788271 vs 0.06591232006923611

Épocas × verificações

Tentativas

Cada tentativa é seu próprio arquivo e é publicada; só a última de cada época é pontuada.

• época 1, tentativa 1falhoupontuada(exibindo)

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