Tarefa crb_papers.q063

Veredito

Pergunta feita ao analista

What is the causal effect of a one log-unit increase in logged EU ODA (EV) in year t-1 on the CIRI Human Empowerment index averaged over years t through t+3 in the study population?

Como o agente resolveu e como foi validado

Resumo passo a passo do que o agente executou, por que o caminho está correto e como cada verificação conferiu o resultado.

1. 1Preparação da base de dados
   ds_0033— | Variable Name | Description | |---------------|-------------| | year | Reference calendar year t for the country–year record; the released extract has reference years 1987–2006. | | ccode | Numeric country identifier (standard country code used to identify panel units). | | new_empinx | Annual CIRI "Human Empowerment" index (composite civil and political rights indicator) for the country–year. | | polity2 | Polity IV combined regime score for the country–year (standard polity measure of regime characteristics). | | EV | Natural logarithm of one plus net EU/European Community official development assistance in year t−1, measured in millions of constant 1995 US dollars. Negative net amounts were set to zero before the logarithmic transformation. | | l2CPcol2 | Equals 1 when the recipient country was a former colony of the EU member holding the Council presidency during July–December of year t−2; otherwise 0. | | covihme_ayem | Average years of educational attainment (lagged educational-attainment measure, source noted in paper). | | covihme_ayemF | Equals 1 when covihme_ayem represents a missing value coded −99, and 0 otherwise. | | covwdi_exp | Exports (World Bank WDI series, lagged; often logged/transformed in the replication). | | covwdi_expF | Missingness flag / indicator for covwdi_exp. | | covwdi_fdi | Foreign direct investment (WDI series, lagged; inward FDI measure). | | covwdi_fdiF | Missingness flag / indicator for covwdi_fdi. | | covwdi_imp | Imports (World Bank WDI series, lagged; often logged/transformed). | | covwdi_impF | Missingness flag / indicator for covwdi_imp. | | covwvs_rel | Lagged religiosity measure included in the source socioeconomic compilation; measured in year t−2, with −99 for missing values. | | covwvs_relF | Missingness flag / indicator for covwvs_rel. | | coviNY_GDP_PETR_RT_ZS | Petroleum/oil rents as percent of GDP (World Bank indicator NY.GDP.PETR.RT.ZS), lagged. | | coviNY_GDP_PETR_RT_ZSF | Missingness flag / indicator for coviNY_GDP_PETR_RT_ZS. | | covdemregion | Regional democracy context: number (or summary count) of democracies in the same region (lagged regional-democracy measure). | | covdemregionF | Missingness flag / indicator for covdemregion. | | covloggdpC | Logged GDP per capita measured in year t−2; missing values are represented by −99 and flagged by covloggdpCF. | | covloggdpCF | Missingness flag / indicator for covloggdpC. | | covloggdp | Logged GDP measured in year t−2; missing values are represented by −99 and flagged by covloggdpF. | | covloggdpF | Missingness flag / indicator for covloggdp. | | _Iyear_1963 … _Iyear_2011 | Binary year-indicator columns retained from the wider source panel. Each denotes the corresponding calendar year; columns for years outside this extract are zero. | | _Iccode_40 … _Iccode_990 | Binary country-indicator columns retained from the wider source panel; each denotes the corresponding ccode. | | new_empinxavg | Arithmetic average of the CIRI Human Empowerment index in years t, t+1, t+2, and t+3; the index ranges from 0 to 14. | | polity2avg | Arithmetic average of the Polity IV combined score over years t, t+1, t+2, and t+3. | Data Description: Each observation is an aid-recipient country in reference year t. The released extract contains 1,792 observations for 115 countries, with reference years 1987–2006. It combines EU/European Community aid records, historical colonial links, Council-presidency calendars, the CIRI Human Empowerment index, Polity IV regime scores, and socioeconomic measures from World Development Indicators, religiosity and education-attainment series, and regional democracy counts. The Council presidency rotates among member governments for six-month terms under a prearranged schedule. During July–December, the presidency participates in setting the following year's aid budget. Historical colonial links connect recipient countries to particular European governments. The European Commission subsequently administers disbursement of the allocated aid; an aid allocation is distinct from the amount actually disbursed. l2CPcol2 refers to the second-half presidency in t−2, EV to aid in t−1, and new_empinxavg to outcomes over t through t+3. Substantive variables prefixed cov are measured two years before the reference year. Missing values were replaced with the placeholder −99; associated variables ending in F equal 1 for those missing values and 0 otherwise. The −99 entries are not measured socioeconomic values. The file also retains binary year and country indicators and the four-year outcome averages.
   ref_iv
2. 2Chamada que gerou a resposta finalinfer.ols(Regressão linear por mínimos quadrados ordinários (MQO))citada na resposta

   Ver chamada call_1890e458 nos detalhes

   Linha de base ingênua: regressão do resultado no tratamento, sem controles.

   Por que este é o caminho de referência: IV2SLS(new_empinxavg, 1 + controls - covdemregionF + C(year) + C(ccode), EV, l2CPcol2); one of the two cluster dimensions
   Argumentos principais

   dataset:

   "ds_0033"

   intercept:

   true

   level:

   0,950.95

   se:

   "HC1"

   x:

   ["EV"]

   y:

   "new_empinxavg"

   Resultado calculado

   • coef.EV = 0,0528347 0.05283470615161849
     Coefficient on EV in the regression of new_empinxavg
   Diagnósticos: n_obs = 1.7921792 (observations used) · k = 22 (parameters estimated, fixed-effect dummies included) · r2 = 0,0003968650.00039686525518489724 · df_resid = 1.7901790 · se_type = "HC1" (heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors (HC1))
3. 3Conferência de lastro e resposta final

   Todos os 1 números escritos na resposta foram conferidos contra as ferramentas e o enunciado (nenhum número sem lastro).

   Números encontrados: 0,05283
   Figuras citadas: call_1890e458:coef.EV
   • ✓
     #0resposta com lastro

     every number traced to a tool call or the question
   • ✓
     #1figura da resposta próxima

     CRB estimate_within_solution_ci: the answer figure inside the gold 95% interval effect ± 1.96·|SE| of source crb_papers.q063.gold (closed, evaluate_result.py; no --auto-rescale)
   • ✗
     #2figura da resposta próxima

     replication cell: the gold effect to rel 1e-6 (abs floor 1e-6·SE); never required
   • ✗
     #3figura da resposta próxima

     replication cell: the gold SE to rel 1e-6; never required

Valores esperados e de onde vêm

Verificações

Caminho de referência e caminho do agente

A chamada de referência ao lado da chamada que deu a resposta, argumento por argumento.

Trajetória

Cada evento na ordem em que aconteceu: turnos do modelo, chamadas de ferramentas, guardas, transformações e pontuação.

1. 0Início

   What is the causal effect of a one log-unit increase in logged EU ODA (EV) in year t-1 on the CIRI Human Empowerment index averaged over years t through t+3 in the study population?

   ds_0033 (agent)

   | Variable Name | Description | |---------------|-------------| | year | Reference calendar year t for the country–year record; the released extract has reference years 1987–2006. | | ccode | Numeric country identifier (standard country code used to identify panel units). | | new_empinx | Annual CIRI "Human Empowerment" index (composite civil and political rights indicator) for the country–year. | | polity2 | Polity IV combined regime score for the country–year (standard polity measure of regime characteristics). | | EV | Natural logarithm of one plus net EU/European Community official development assistance in year t−1, measured in millions of constant 1995 US dollars. Negative net amounts were set to zero before the logarithmic transformation. | | l2CPcol2 | Equals 1 when the recipient country was a former colony of the EU member holding the Council presidency during July–December of year t−2; otherwise 0. | | covihme_ayem | Average years of educational attainment (lagged educational-attainment measure, source noted in paper). | | covihme_ayemF | Equals 1 when covihme_ayem represents a missing value coded −99, and 0 otherwise. | | covwdi_exp | Exports (World Bank WDI series, lagged; often logged/transformed in the replication). | | covwdi_expF | Missingness flag / indicator for covwdi_exp. | | covwdi_fdi | Foreign direct investment (WDI series, lagged; inward FDI measure). | | covwdi_fdiF | Missingness flag / indicator for covwdi_fdi. | | covwdi_imp | Imports (World Bank WDI series, lagged; often logged/transformed). | | covwdi_impF | Missingness flag / indicator for covwdi_imp. | | covwvs_rel | Lagged religiosity measure included in the source socioeconomic compilation; measured in year t−2, with −99 for missing values. | | covwvs_relF | Missingness flag / indicator for covwvs_rel. | | coviNY_GDP_PETR_RT_ZS | Petroleum/oil rents as percent of GDP (World Bank indicator NY.GDP.PETR.RT.ZS), lagged. | | coviNY_GDP_PETR_RT_ZSF | Missingness flag / indicator for coviNY_GDP_PETR_RT_ZS. | | covdemregion | Regional democracy context: number (or summary count) of democracies in the same region (lagged regional-democracy measure). | | covdemregionF | Missingness flag / indicator for covdemregion. | | covloggdpC | Logged GDP per capita measured in year t−2; missing values are represented by −99 and flagged by covloggdpCF. | | covloggdpCF | Missingness flag / indicator for covloggdpC. | | covloggdp | Logged GDP measured in year t−2; missing values are represented by −99 and flagged by covloggdpF. | | covloggdpF | Missingness flag / indicator for covloggdp. | | _Iyear_1963 … _Iyear_2011 | Binary year-indicator columns retained from the wider source panel. Each denotes the corresponding calendar year; columns for years outside this extract are zero. | | _Iccode_40 … _Iccode_990 | Binary country-indicator columns retained from the wider source panel; each denotes the corresponding ccode. | | new_empinxavg | Arithmetic average of the CIRI Human Empowerment index in years t, t+1, t+2, and t+3; the index ranges from 0 to 14. | | polity2avg | Arithmetic average of the Polity IV combined score over years t, t+1, t+2, and t+3. | Data Description: Each observation is an aid-recipient country in reference year t. The released extract contains 1,792 observations for 115 countries, with reference years 1987–2006. It combines EU/European Community aid records, historical colonial links, Council-presidency calendars, the CIRI Human Empowerment index, Polity IV regime scores, and socioeconomic measures from World Development Indicators, religiosity and education-attainment series, and regional democracy counts. The Council presidency rotates among member governments for six-month terms under a prearranged schedule. During July–December, the presidency participates in setting the following year's aid budget. Historical colonial links connect recipient countries to particular European governments. The European Commission subsequently administers disbursement of the allocated aid; an aid allocation is distinct from the amount actually disbursed. l2CPcol2 refers to the second-half presidency in t−2, EV to aid in t−1, and new_empinxavg to outcomes over t through t+3. Substantive variables prefixed cov are measured two years before the reference year. Missing values were replaced with the placeholder −99; associated variables ending in F equal 1 for those missing values and 0 otherwise. The −99 entries are not measured socioeconomic values. The file also retains binary year and country indicators and the four-year outcome averages.

   file 12fb375d5f7bc7882d97ba1cfcbbdb3f0d005e988762d4b8c98a6a8d00133974 · frame —

   ref_iv (reference)

   file 12fb375d5f7bc7882d97ba1cfcbbdb3f0d005e988762d4b8c98a6a8d00133974 · frame —

   1. select {"columns":["new_empinxavg","EV","l2CPcol2","year","ccode","covloggdp","covloggdpCF","covloggdpC","covdemregionF","covdemregion","coviNY_GDP_PETR_RT_ZSF","coviNY_GDP_PETR_RT_ZS","covwvs_relF","covwvs_rel","covwdi_imp","covwdi_fdiF","covwdi_fdi","covwdi_expF","covwdi_exp","covihme_ayemF","covihme_ayem"]}
   2. dropna {"columns":["new_empinxavg","EV","l2CPcol2","year","ccode","covloggdp","covloggdpCF","covloggdpC","covdemregionF","covdemregion","coviNY_GDP_PETR_RT_ZSF","coviNY_GDP_PETR_RT_ZS","covwvs_relF","covwvs_rel","covwdi_imp","covwdi_fdiF","covwdi_fdi","covwdi_expF","covwdi_exp","covihme_ayemF","covihme_ayem"]}
   3. dummies {"column":"year","drop_first":true,"prefix":"year"}
   4. dummies {"column":"ccode","drop_first":true,"prefix":"ccode"}
2. 1Turno do modelo
   call_0913cfc9naive-olsFim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache

   Texto visível

   Linha de base ingênua: regressão do resultado no tratamento, sem controles.

   Chamadas pedidas

   • infer.ols

     {
       "dataset": "ds_0033",
       "x": [
         "EV"
       ],
       "y": "new_empinxavg"
     }

   Mensagens (formato neutro)Instruções do sistemaFerramentas oferecidas
3. 2Ferramenta
   infer.ols— Regressão linear por mínimos quadrados ordinários (MQO)v0.1.0call_1890e458decidido pelo modeloreexecutável

   Motivo: Linha de base ingênua: regressão do resultado no tratamento, sem controles.

   Argumentos

   {
     "cluster": null,
     "controls": [],
     "dataset": "ds_0033",
     "fe": [],
     "intercept": true,
     "level": 0.95,
     "se": "HC1",
     "subset": null,
     "weights": null,
     "x": [
       "EV"
     ],
     "y": "new_empinxavg"
   }

   Figuras call_1890e458

   Chave	Valor	Valor bruto	Erro-padrão	IC
   coef.EV Coefficient on EV in the regression of new_empinxavg	0,0528347	0.05283470615161849	0,06302890.06302890896117097	-0,0707833 – 0,176453

   Diagnósticos

   • n_obs = 1.7921792 (observations used)
   • k = 22 (parameters estimated, fixed-effect dummies included)
   • r2 = 0,0003968650.00039686525518489724
   • df_resid = 1.7901790
   • se_type = "HC1" (heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors (HC1))
   • n_clusters = — (errors not clustered)

   Derivação matemática e pressupostos

   coef.EV

   1. Coeficiente de EV na regressão por mínimos quadrados ordinários de new_empinxavg.→ 0,0528347 (0.05283470615161849)
   2. Erro-padrão robusto à heterocedasticidade (HC1): a raiz da variância estimada do coeficiente.ep = √V_jj→ 0,0630289 (0.06302890896117097)
   3. Intervalo de 95% de confiança: a estimativa mais ou menos o valor crítico da distribuição t de Student com 1790 graus de liberdade vezes o erro-padrão.IC = β ± c · ep

   Pressupostos do estimador

   • the conditional mean of the outcome is linear in the regressors
   • errors are independent across observations; their variance may differ

   Tabelas (1)

   {
     "coefficients": [
       {
         "ci_high": 8.031598808740618,
         "ci_low": 7.26159492825872,
         "coef": 7.646596868499669,
         "p": 6.450634207560158e-241,
         "se": 0.19630034793756182,
         "t": 38.95355738713137,
         "term": "Intercept"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.1764526849085356,
         "ci_low": -0.07078327260529861,
         "coef": 0.05283470615161849,
         "p": 0.401995786385976,
         "se": 0.06302890896117097,
         "t": 0.8382614743365996,
         "term": "EV"
       }
     ]
   }

   Hashes SHA-256 e metadados de reprodução

   Digests dos dados

   ds_0033 b0d30cde4dfdf16409a234c9cf44658989a1f0459265ea71a276fe53ccf58ddb

   sha256 do resultado

   699ec7c996bc1ff4281ff9005d98d8906bb332be74ec7f9aa3f7a11b0a34e05a

   Resultado mostrado ao modelo
4. 3Turno do modelo
   call_3816c162naive-olsFim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache

   Chamadas pedidas

   • submit_answer (meta-ferramenta)

     {
       "answer": "Estimativa ingênua (infer.ols): coef.EV = 0,05283.",
       "caveats": [],
       "figure_refs": [
         "call_1890e458:coef.EV"
       ]
     }

   Mensagens (formato neutro)Instruções do sistemaFerramentas oferecidas
5. 4Guarda
   resposta aceita

   Números encontrados

   0,05283

   Sem lastro

   —

   Não citados

   —

   1 nova(s) tentativa(s) restante(s)
6. 5Resposta

   Estimativa ingênua (infer.ols): coef.EV = 0,05283.

   Figuras citadas: call_1890e458:coef.EV · Parada: answered

   Figura da resposta: call_1890e458:coef.EV = 0,05283470.05283470615161849 (se 0,06302890.06302890896117097)
7. 6Pontuação
   #0resposta com lastropassouobrigatóriaevery number backed
8. 7Pontuação
   #1figura da resposta próximapassouobrigatória0.05283470615 in [-0.01364828478, 3.424546834]?
9. 8Pontuação
   #2figura da resposta próximafalhouregistrada0.05283470615 vs 1.7054492745664902
10. 9Pontuação
    #3figura da resposta próximafalhouregistrada0.06302890896 vs 0.8770905915013324

Épocas × verificações

Tentativas

Cada tentativa é seu próprio arquivo e é publicada; só a última de cada época é pontuada.

• época 1, tentativa 1passoupontuada(exibindo)

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