Tarefa crb_papers.q105

Veredito

Pergunta feita ao analista

What is the average effect, at very close U.S. House races, of a Democratic victory on the Democratic Party's share of all campaign contributions received in the subsequent election cycle in that district?

Como o agente resolveu e como foi validado

Resumo passo a passo do que o agente executou, por que o caminho está correto e como cada verificação conferiu o resultado.

1. 1Preparação da base de dados
   ds_0071— | Variable Name | Description | |---------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | dv_money | Democratic Party’s share of all campaign contributions received in the subsequent election cycle for a district (percent of combined Democratic and Republican receipts, t+1). | | rv | Democratic two-party vote-share margin in the prior general election for the same district (Democratic share minus 50, in percentage points; negative values indicate a Democratic loss). | Data Description: This file is a pared-down analysis dataset derived from a larger compilation used to study fundraising patterns in U.S. House elections. Each row corresponds to a congressional district–election pair, combining prior election returns with fundraising in the next cycle. The contributions measure aggregates itemized receipts reported to the Federal Election Commission (FEC) by House candidates, summing donations from individuals and political action committees; party committee transfers and candidate self-financing are excluded, and the Democratic share is computed relative to the combined Democratic and Republican totals in that district-cycle. Election returns provide the two-party vote shares from the preceding general election, recorded as the Democratic margin over 50 percent. The broader study covers U.S. House contests primarily from 1980–2006 and focuses on districts with standard two-party competition. Observations in which a third-party candidate placed first or second are removed, and district-years affected by redistricting between elections are omitted to maintain comparability across cycles. Values are recorded in percentage points, with the contribution share referring to the subsequent cycle and the vote-share margin referring to the prior contest.
   ref_rd
2. 2Chamada que gerou a resposta finalinfer.ols(Regressão linear por mínimos quadrados ordinários (MQO))citada na resposta

   Ver chamada call_c6373b27 nos detalhes

   Linha de base ingênua: regressão do resultado no tratamento, sem controles.

   Por que este é o caminho de referência: rdrobust(y[m], x[m], c=0.0, p=1, h=3.0): the script prints the Robust row, tau_bc; with h given and b not, rdrobust sets b = h (rho = 1), and the local linear jump bias-corrected by the quadratic fit at b = h with the same kernel equals the local quadratic jump at h
   Argumentos principais

   dataset:

   "ds_0071"

   intercept:

   true

   level:

   0,950.95

   se:

   "HC1"

   x:

   ["rv"]

   y:

   "dv_money"

   Resultado calculado

   • coef.rv = 1,29111 1.291110780188279
     Coefficient on rv in the regression of dv_money
   Diagnósticos: n_obs = 4.3264326 (observations used) · k = 22 (parameters estimated, fixed-effect dummies included) · r2 = 0,6099890.6099892454280652 · df_resid = 4.3244324 · se_type = "HC1" (heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors (HC1))
3. 3Conferência de lastro e resposta final

   Todos os 1 números escritos na resposta foram conferidos contra as ferramentas e o enunciado (nenhum número sem lastro).

   Números encontrados: 1,291
   Figuras citadas: call_c6373b27:coef.rv
   • ✓
     #0resposta com lastro

     every number traced to a tool call or the question
   • ✗
     #1figura da resposta próxima

     CRB estimate_within_solution_ci: the answer figure inside the gold 95% interval effect ± 1.96·|SE| of source crb_papers.q105.gold (closed, evaluate_result.py; no --auto-rescale)
   • ✗
     #2figura da resposta próxima

     replication cell: the gold effect to rel 1e-6 (abs floor 1e-6·SE); never required
   • ✗
     #3figura da resposta próxima

     replication cell: the gold SE to rel 1e-6; never required

Valores esperados e de onde vêm

Verificações

Caminho de referência e caminho do agente

A chamada de referência ao lado da chamada que deu a resposta, argumento por argumento.

Trajetória

Cada evento na ordem em que aconteceu: turnos do modelo, chamadas de ferramentas, guardas, transformações e pontuação.

1. 0Início

   What is the average effect, at very close U.S. House races, of a Democratic victory on the Democratic Party's share of all campaign contributions received in the subsequent election cycle in that district?

   ds_0071 (agent)

   | Variable Name | Description | |---------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | dv_money | Democratic Party’s share of all campaign contributions received in the subsequent election cycle for a district (percent of combined Democratic and Republican receipts, t+1). | | rv | Democratic two-party vote-share margin in the prior general election for the same district (Democratic share minus 50, in percentage points; negative values indicate a Democratic loss). | Data Description: This file is a pared-down analysis dataset derived from a larger compilation used to study fundraising patterns in U.S. House elections. Each row corresponds to a congressional district–election pair, combining prior election returns with fundraising in the next cycle. The contributions measure aggregates itemized receipts reported to the Federal Election Commission (FEC) by House candidates, summing donations from individuals and political action committees; party committee transfers and candidate self-financing are excluded, and the Democratic share is computed relative to the combined Democratic and Republican totals in that district-cycle. Election returns provide the two-party vote shares from the preceding general election, recorded as the Democratic margin over 50 percent. The broader study covers U.S. House contests primarily from 1980–2006 and focuses on districts with standard two-party competition. Observations in which a third-party candidate placed first or second are removed, and district-years affected by redistricting between elections are omitted to maintain comparability across cycles. Values are recorded in percentage points, with the contribution share referring to the subsequent cycle and the vote-share margin referring to the prior contest.

   file 1a1e60f54978b33a6b01f7f8f66e075bbceefd4c9d0ea297c31f8521eccb53e0 · frame —

   ref_rd (reference)

   file 1a1e60f54978b33a6b01f7f8f66e075bbceefd4c9d0ea297c31f8521eccb53e0 · frame —

   1. select {"columns":["dv_money","rv"]}
   2. dropna {"columns":["dv_money","rv"]}
2. 1Turno do modelo
   call_e62f2d51naive-olsFim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache

   Texto visível

   Linha de base ingênua: regressão do resultado no tratamento, sem controles.

   Chamadas pedidas

   • infer.ols

     {
       "dataset": "ds_0071",
       "x": [
         "rv"
       ],
       "y": "dv_money"
     }

   Mensagens (formato neutro)Instruções do sistemaFerramentas oferecidas
3. 2Ferramenta
   infer.ols— Regressão linear por mínimos quadrados ordinários (MQO)v0.1.0call_c6373b27decidido pelo modeloreexecutável

   Motivo: Linha de base ingênua: regressão do resultado no tratamento, sem controles.

   Argumentos

   {
     "cluster": null,
     "controls": [],
     "dataset": "ds_0071",
     "fe": [],
     "intercept": true,
     "level": 0.95,
     "se": "HC1",
     "subset": null,
     "weights": null,
     "x": [
       "rv"
     ],
     "y": "dv_money"
   }

   Figuras call_c6373b27

   Chave	Valor	Valor bruto	Erro-padrão	IC
   coef.rv Coefficient on rv in the regression of dv_money	1,29111	1.291110780188279	0,01683140.016831368368637623	1,25811 – 1,32411

   Diagnósticos

   • n_obs = 4.3264326 (observations used)
   • k = 22 (parameters estimated, fixed-effect dummies included)
   • r2 = 0,6099890.6099892454280652
   • df_resid = 4.3244324
   • se_type = "HC1" (heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors (HC1))
   • n_clusters = — (errors not clustered)

   Derivação matemática e pressupostos

   coef.rv

   1. Coeficiente de rv na regressão por mínimos quadrados ordinários de dv_money.→ 1,29111 (1.291110780188279)
   2. Erro-padrão robusto à heterocedasticidade (HC1): a raiz da variância estimada do coeficiente.ep = √V_jj→ 0,0168314 (0.016831368368637623)
   3. Intervalo de 95% de confiança: a estimativa mais ou menos o valor crítico da distribuição t de Student com 4324 graus de liberdade vezes o erro-padrão.IC = β ± c · ep

   Pressupostos do estimador

   • the conditional mean of the outcome is linear in the regressors
   • errors are independent across observations; their variance may differ

   Tabelas (1)

   {
     "coefficients": [
       {
         "ci_high": 51.232099259971406,
         "ci_low": 49.743624420667885,
         "coef": 50.487861840319646,
         "p": 0,
         "se": 0.37961365677674935,
         "t": 132.9980124240144,
         "term": "Intercept"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 1.3241088927173286,
         "ci_low": 1.2581126676592296,
         "coef": 1.291110780188279,
         "p": 0,
         "se": 0.016831368368637623,
         "t": 76.7086045478063,
         "term": "rv"
       }
     ]
   }

   • 2207 rows were dropped because one of 'dv_money', 'rv' was missing

   Hashes SHA-256 e metadados de reprodução

   Digests dos dados

   ds_0071 dccb508a867132c28ec2596bef0a5a2630e67574773fe886db35c854253cc20e

   sha256 do resultado

   7e05592c59bc2f6c5b918a7460ad1daa546346d58478205f46029c4101d4349b

   Resultado mostrado ao modelo
4. 3Turno do modelo
   call_3d119787naive-olsFim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache

   Chamadas pedidas

   • submit_answer (meta-ferramenta)

     {
       "answer": "Estimativa ingênua (infer.ols): coef.rv = 1,291.",
       "caveats": [],
       "figure_refs": [
         "call_c6373b27:coef.rv"
       ]
     }

   Mensagens (formato neutro)Instruções do sistemaFerramentas oferecidas
5. 4Guarda
   resposta aceita

   Números encontrados

   1,291

   Sem lastro

   —

   Não citados

   —

   1 nova(s) tentativa(s) restante(s)
6. 5Resposta

   Estimativa ingênua (infer.ols): coef.rv = 1,291.

   Figuras citadas: call_c6373b27:coef.rv · Parada: answered

   Figura da resposta: call_c6373b27:coef.rv = 1,291111.291110780188279 (se 0,01683140.016831368368637623)
7. 6Pontuação
   #0resposta com lastropassouobrigatóriaevery number backed
8. 7Pontuação
   #1figura da resposta próximafalhouobrigatória1.29111078 in [2.400079928, 27.95845667]?
9. 8Pontuação
   #2figura da resposta próximafalhouregistrada1.29111078 vs 15.179268300881112
10. 9Pontuação
    #3figura da resposta próximafalhouregistrada0.01683136837 vs 6.519994067871143

Épocas × verificações

Tentativas

Cada tentativa é seu próprio arquivo e é publicada; só a última de cada época é pontuada.

• época 1, tentativa 1falhoupontuada(exibindo)

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