Tarefa crb_papers.q113

Veredito

Pergunta feita ao analista

Among non-term-limited candidates in Brazil's closely contested 2008 mayoral elections who also ran in 2012, how did winning in 2008 affect the probability of running under a different party in 2012?

Como o agente resolveu e como foi validado

Resumo passo a passo do que o agente executou, por que o caminho está correto e como cada verificação conferiu o resultado.

1. 1Preparação da base de dados
   ds_0078— | Variable Name | Description | |-------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | Unnamed: 0 | Row index carried over from the original export. | | muni_code | Municipality identifier assigned by Brazil's electoral authority (TSE). | | year | Baseline mayoral election year; 2008 for every row in this extract. | | party | Party abbreviation of the focal mayoral candidate in the 2008 election. | | mun_place | Candidate's finishing position in the 2008 mayoral election: 1=winner, 2=runner-up. | | gov_party | Party abbreviation of the state governor for the municipality’s state in that cycle. | | gov_pct | Party’s vote share in the gubernatorial election within the municipality (proportion). | | de_pct | Party’s vote share for state deputy (deputado estadual) within the municipality (proportion). | | change | Candidate ran under a different party in 2012 than in 2008: 1=different party, 0=same party. The exact date of a party change is not recorded. | | attrition | Candidate did not appear in the 2012 mayoral election (1/0); always 0 in this repeat-candidate extract. | | margin | Candidate's 2008 mayoral vote margin relative to the win-loss threshold, in proportions; positive for winners and negative for runners-up. | | p_df_pct | Party’s vote share for federal deputy (deputado federal) in the previous cycle, municipality-level (proportion). | | df_pct | Party’s vote share for federal deputy (deputado federal) in the current cycle, municipality-level (proportion). | | treat | Candidate won the 2008 mayoral election: 1=winner, 0=runner-up. | | ineligible | Candidate was term-limited/ineligible to run in the next mayoral election (1/0); always 0 in this extract. | | p_de_pct | Party’s vote share for state deputy in the previous cycle, municipality-level (proportion). | | p_gov_pct | Party’s vote share for governor in the previous cycle, municipality-level (proportion). | | p_mun_pct | Party’s vote share for mayor in the previous municipal election (proportion). | | partyIncumbent | Indicator that the party held the mayor’s office prior to the municipal election (1/0). | | age | Age of the focal mayoral candidate (years). | | max_expenditure | Reported maximum campaign expenditure for the mayoral candidate (local currency; -1 indicates missing). | | married | Candidate reported marital status: married (1/0). | | unschooled | Candidate reported no formal schooling (1/0). | | tertiary | Candidate reported tertiary (college/university) education completed (1/0). | | female | Candidate sex: female (1/0). | | pt | Indicator that the candidate’s party is PT (1/0). | | pmdb | Indicator that the candidate’s party is PMDB (1/0). | | psdb | Indicator that the candidate’s party is PSDB (1/0). | | pr | Indicator that the candidate’s party is PR (1/0). | | pfl | Indicator that the candidate’s party is PFL/DEM (legacy label) (1/0). | | ptb | Indicator that the candidate’s party is PTB (1/0). | | pps | Indicator that the candidate’s party is PPS (1/0). | | pp | Indicator that the candidate’s party is PP (1/0). | | pdt | Indicator that the candidate’s party is PDT (1/0). | | psb | Indicator that the candidate’s party is PSB (1/0). | | bizz | Candidate occupation: businessperson/entrepreneur (1/0). | | rural_worker | Candidate occupation: rural worker (1/0). | | retiree | Candidate occupation: retiree/pensioner (1/0). | | trader | Candidate occupation: trader/merchant (1/0). | | public_employee | Candidate occupation: public employee/civil servant (1/0). | | teacher | Candidate occupation: teacher (1/0). | Data Description: Each row represents a first- or second-place candidate in Brazil's 2008 municipal mayoral elections. This extract contains 4,276 candidates who were not term-limited and who also appeared as mayoral candidates in 2012; year=2008, ineligible=0, and attrition=0 throughout. Comparing the candidate's party labels in the 2008 and 2012 elections establishes whether they ran under a different party in 2012. The outcome change is a binary party-switching indicator; its mean is a probability on a 0-1 scale. Candidates absent from the 2012 election are excluded, so the question concerns the observed repeat-candidate sample. This selection must be considered when interpreting a causal effect or generalizing beyond that sample. The data were compiled from election results and candidate-registration records maintained by Brazil's Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE). Municipality identifiers are TSE codes. The file links candidate party affiliations across the two mayoral elections and includes 2008 election placement, vote margins, win indicators, demographics, and occupations. Municipality-level party vote shares for governor, federal deputy (deputado federal), and state deputy (deputado estadual), together with their lagged values, provide additional electoral context; they are separate from the party-switching outcome change. Party labels follow official abbreviations in use during the period, including legacy acronyms.
2. 2Chamada que gerou a resposta finalinfer.ols(Regressão linear por mínimos quadrados ordinários (MQO))citada na resposta

   Ver chamada call_b09729b8 nos detalhes

   Linha de base ingênua: regressão do resultado no tratamento, sem controles.

   Argumentos principais

   dataset:

   "ds_0078"

   intercept:

   true

   level:

   0,950.95

   se:

   "HC1"

   x:

   ["treat"]

   y:

   "change"

   Resultado calculado

   • coef.treat = -0,174191 -0.17419068541300528
     Coefficient on treat in the regression of change
   Diagnósticos: n_obs = 4.2764276 (observations used) · k = 22 (parameters estimated, fixed-effect dummies included) · r2 = 0,03812940.03812936220586616 · df_resid = 4.2744274 · se_type = "HC1" (heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors (HC1))
3. 3Conferência de lastro e resposta final

   Todos os 1 números escritos na resposta foram conferidos contra as ferramentas e o enunciado (nenhum número sem lastro).

   Números encontrados: -0,1742
   Figuras citadas: call_b09729b8:coef.treat
   • ✓
     #0resposta com lastro

     every number traced to a tool call or the question
   • ✓
     #1figura da resposta próxima

     CRB estimate_within_solution_ci: the answer figure inside the gold 95% interval effect ± 1.96·|SE| of source crb_papers.q113.gold (closed, evaluate_result.py; no --auto-rescale)
   • ✗
     #2figura da resposta próxima

     replication cell: the gold effect to rel 1e-6 (abs floor 1e-6·SE); never required
   • ✗
     #3figura da resposta próxima

     replication cell: the gold SE to rel 1e-6; never required

Valores esperados e de onde vêm

Verificações

Caminho de referência e caminho do agente

A chamada de referência ao lado da chamada que deu a resposta, argumento por argumento.

Nenhum caminho de referência registrado para esta tarefa.

Trajetória

Cada evento na ordem em que aconteceu: turnos do modelo, chamadas de ferramentas, guardas, transformações e pontuação.

1. 0Início

   Among non-term-limited candidates in Brazil's closely contested 2008 mayoral elections who also ran in 2012, how did winning in 2008 affect the probability of running under a different party in 2012?

   ds_0078 (agent)

   | Variable Name | Description | |-------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | Unnamed: 0 | Row index carried over from the original export. | | muni_code | Municipality identifier assigned by Brazil's electoral authority (TSE). | | year | Baseline mayoral election year; 2008 for every row in this extract. | | party | Party abbreviation of the focal mayoral candidate in the 2008 election. | | mun_place | Candidate's finishing position in the 2008 mayoral election: 1=winner, 2=runner-up. | | gov_party | Party abbreviation of the state governor for the municipality’s state in that cycle. | | gov_pct | Party’s vote share in the gubernatorial election within the municipality (proportion). | | de_pct | Party’s vote share for state deputy (deputado estadual) within the municipality (proportion). | | change | Candidate ran under a different party in 2012 than in 2008: 1=different party, 0=same party. The exact date of a party change is not recorded. | | attrition | Candidate did not appear in the 2012 mayoral election (1/0); always 0 in this repeat-candidate extract. | | margin | Candidate's 2008 mayoral vote margin relative to the win-loss threshold, in proportions; positive for winners and negative for runners-up. | | p_df_pct | Party’s vote share for federal deputy (deputado federal) in the previous cycle, municipality-level (proportion). | | df_pct | Party’s vote share for federal deputy (deputado federal) in the current cycle, municipality-level (proportion). | | treat | Candidate won the 2008 mayoral election: 1=winner, 0=runner-up. | | ineligible | Candidate was term-limited/ineligible to run in the next mayoral election (1/0); always 0 in this extract. | | p_de_pct | Party’s vote share for state deputy in the previous cycle, municipality-level (proportion). | | p_gov_pct | Party’s vote share for governor in the previous cycle, municipality-level (proportion). | | p_mun_pct | Party’s vote share for mayor in the previous municipal election (proportion). | | partyIncumbent | Indicator that the party held the mayor’s office prior to the municipal election (1/0). | | age | Age of the focal mayoral candidate (years). | | max_expenditure | Reported maximum campaign expenditure for the mayoral candidate (local currency; -1 indicates missing). | | married | Candidate reported marital status: married (1/0). | | unschooled | Candidate reported no formal schooling (1/0). | | tertiary | Candidate reported tertiary (college/university) education completed (1/0). | | female | Candidate sex: female (1/0). | | pt | Indicator that the candidate’s party is PT (1/0). | | pmdb | Indicator that the candidate’s party is PMDB (1/0). | | psdb | Indicator that the candidate’s party is PSDB (1/0). | | pr | Indicator that the candidate’s party is PR (1/0). | | pfl | Indicator that the candidate’s party is PFL/DEM (legacy label) (1/0). | | ptb | Indicator that the candidate’s party is PTB (1/0). | | pps | Indicator that the candidate’s party is PPS (1/0). | | pp | Indicator that the candidate’s party is PP (1/0). | | pdt | Indicator that the candidate’s party is PDT (1/0). | | psb | Indicator that the candidate’s party is PSB (1/0). | | bizz | Candidate occupation: businessperson/entrepreneur (1/0). | | rural_worker | Candidate occupation: rural worker (1/0). | | retiree | Candidate occupation: retiree/pensioner (1/0). | | trader | Candidate occupation: trader/merchant (1/0). | | public_employee | Candidate occupation: public employee/civil servant (1/0). | | teacher | Candidate occupation: teacher (1/0). | Data Description: Each row represents a first- or second-place candidate in Brazil's 2008 municipal mayoral elections. This extract contains 4,276 candidates who were not term-limited and who also appeared as mayoral candidates in 2012; year=2008, ineligible=0, and attrition=0 throughout. Comparing the candidate's party labels in the 2008 and 2012 elections establishes whether they ran under a different party in 2012. The outcome change is a binary party-switching indicator; its mean is a probability on a 0-1 scale. Candidates absent from the 2012 election are excluded, so the question concerns the observed repeat-candidate sample. This selection must be considered when interpreting a causal effect or generalizing beyond that sample. The data were compiled from election results and candidate-registration records maintained by Brazil's Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE). Municipality identifiers are TSE codes. The file links candidate party affiliations across the two mayoral elections and includes 2008 election placement, vote margins, win indicators, demographics, and occupations. Municipality-level party vote shares for governor, federal deputy (deputado federal), and state deputy (deputado estadual), together with their lagged values, provide additional electoral context; they are separate from the party-switching outcome change. Party labels follow official abbreviations in use during the period, including legacy acronyms.

   file aadd89d16bdebe209aec58b6b95cbf00e3f12efe912d4f83cd2383d63d8866ad · frame —
2. 1Turno do modelo
   call_b077656enaive-olsFim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache

   Texto visível

   Linha de base ingênua: regressão do resultado no tratamento, sem controles.

   Chamadas pedidas

   • infer.ols

     {
       "dataset": "ds_0078",
       "x": [
         "treat"
       ],
       "y": "change"
     }

   Mensagens (formato neutro)Instruções do sistemaFerramentas oferecidas
3. 2Ferramenta
   infer.ols— Regressão linear por mínimos quadrados ordinários (MQO)v0.1.0call_b09729b8decidido pelo modeloreexecutável

   Motivo: Linha de base ingênua: regressão do resultado no tratamento, sem controles.

   Argumentos

   {
     "cluster": null,
     "controls": [],
     "dataset": "ds_0078",
     "fe": [],
     "intercept": true,
     "level": 0.95,
     "se": "HC1",
     "subset": null,
     "weights": null,
     "x": [
       "treat"
     ],
     "y": "change"
   }

   Figuras call_b09729b8

   Chave	Valor	Valor bruto	Erro-padrão	IC
   coef.treat Coefficient on treat in the regression of change	-0,174191	-0.17419068541300528	0,01319690.013196889097503314	-0,200063 – -0,148318

   Diagnósticos

   • n_obs = 4.2764276 (observations used)
   • k = 22 (parameters estimated, fixed-effect dummies included)
   • r2 = 0,03812940.03812936220586616
   • df_resid = 4.2744274
   • se_type = "HC1" (heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors (HC1))
   • n_clusters = — (errors not clustered)

   Derivação matemática e pressupostos

   coef.treat

   1. Coeficiente de treat na regressão por mínimos quadrados ordinários de change.→ -0,174191 (-0.17419068541300528)
   2. Erro-padrão robusto à heterocedasticidade (HC1): a raiz da variância estimada do coeficiente.ep = √V_jj→ 0,0131969 (0.013196889097503314)
   3. Intervalo de 95% de confiança: a estimativa mais ou menos o valor crítico da distribuição t de Student com 4274 graus de liberdade vezes o erro-padrão.IC = β ± c · ep

   Pressupostos do estimador

   • the conditional mean of the outcome is linear in the regressors
   • errors are independent across observations; their variance may differ

   Tabelas (1)

   {
     "coefficients": [
       {
         "ci_high": 0.373343220308744,
         "ci_low": 0.3340381505172665,
         "coef": 0.35369068541300525,
         "p": 1.4303106765182105e-239,
         "se": 0.010024148212571275,
         "t": 35.28386431571733,
         "term": "Intercept"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": -0.1483179311396173,
         "ci_low": -0.20006343968639326,
         "coef": -0.17419068541300528,
         "p": 5.083719634125283e-39,
         "se": 0.013196889097503314,
         "t": -13.199374801593201,
         "term": "treat"
       }
     ]
   }

   Hashes SHA-256 e metadados de reprodução

   Digests dos dados

   ds_0078 1252dbe18c01bda81be7cbcfeeb6fbc12fa1110d486d96a3b6f0a0f19602d6f3

   sha256 do resultado

   05445707726aa7bbfce4e07b21a3fc5038d09ac852b5e1881e9bbf931df11345

   Resultado mostrado ao modelo
4. 3Turno do modelo
   call_8039283anaive-olsFim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache

   Chamadas pedidas

   • submit_answer (meta-ferramenta)

     {
       "answer": "Estimativa ingênua (infer.ols): coef.treat = -0,1742.",
       "caveats": [],
       "figure_refs": [
         "call_b09729b8:coef.treat"
       ]
     }

   Mensagens (formato neutro)Instruções do sistemaFerramentas oferecidas
5. 4Guarda
   resposta aceita

   Números encontrados

   -0,1742

   Sem lastro

   —

   Não citados

   —

   1 nova(s) tentativa(s) restante(s)
6. 5Resposta

   Estimativa ingênua (infer.ols): coef.treat = -0,1742.

   Figuras citadas: call_b09729b8:coef.treat · Parada: answered

   Figura da resposta: call_b09729b8:coef.treat = -0,174191-0.17419068541300528 (se 0,01319690.013196889097503314)
7. 6Pontuação
   #0resposta com lastropassouobrigatóriaevery number backed
8. 7Pontuação
   #1figura da resposta próximapassouobrigatória-0.1741906854 in [-0.2312680279, -0.08083334028]?
9. 8Pontuação
   #2figura da resposta próximafalhouregistrada-0.1741906854 vs -0.15605068407099687
10. 9Pontuação
    #3figura da resposta próximafalhouregistrada0.0131968891 vs 0.038376195809532575

Épocas × verificações

Tentativas

Cada tentativa é seu próprio arquivo e é publicada; só a última de cada época é pontuada.

• época 1, tentativa 1passoupontuada(exibindo)

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