Tarefa causcibench_real.q078

Veredito

Pergunta feita ao analista

Among high-propensity voters, defined as those with a voting propensity greater than 0.68, what is the effect of receiving a get-out-the-vote phone call three days prior to the election on turnout?

Como o agente resolveu e como foi validado

Resumo passo a passo do que o agente executou, por que o caminho está correto e como cada verificação conferiu o resultado.

1. 1Preparação da base de dados
   panagopoulos_timing— The dataset consists of 25,000 registered voters in Rochester, New York, who were part of a randomized field experiment during the November 2005 municipal elections. Voters were randomly assigned to one of four groups: a phone reminder call scheduled for 4 weeks before Election Day, 2 weeks before, 3 days before, or a control group that received no call. The calls were nonpartisan get-out-the-vote reminders, delivered using standardized scripts. The unit of observation is the individual registered voter, and only those appearing on the official registration list were included. The main outcome is voter turnout in the 2005 election, while additional measures capture past voting history, party registration, demographics, and a predicted propensity to vote. The dataset also records whether each assigned reminder call was actually completed, allowing for comparison between group assignment and the reality of who was contacted. Data variables: vtr_gen01: Voted (2001) vtr_gen03: Voted (2003) vtr_gen05: Outcome: Voted 2005 treated: Successfully contacted four_weeks: Experimental group: Called 4 weeks before election two_weeks: Experimental group: Called 2 weeks before election three_days: Experimental group: Called 3 days before election control: Experimental group: Control, i.e., did not receive any calls democrat: Registered Democrat republican: Registered Republican unenrolled: Unaffiliated other_party: Other party registration age: Age (years) age_squared: Age squared contacted_4weeks: Successfully contacted: 4 weeks contacted_2weeks: Successfully contacted: 2 weeks contacted_3days: Successfully contacted: 3 days vote_prop: Predicted vote propensity use: Subject included id: Subject ID
2. 2Chamada que gerou a resposta finalinfer.iv_2sls(Variáveis instrumentais por mínimos quadrados em dois estágios (MQ2E))citada na respostacoincide com a referência

   Ver chamada call_3e2dc1b6 nos detalhes

   causcibench_metadata_rule/1: iv

   Por que este é o caminho de referência: causcibench_metadata_rule/1: iv
   Argumentos principais

   dataset:

   "panagopoulos_timing"

   endog:

   ["contacted_3days"]

   exog:

   ["democrat","republican","unenrolled","other_party","age","age_squared","vtr_gen01","vtr_gen03"]

   instruments:

   ["three_days"]

   level:

   0,950.95

   se:

   "HC1"

   y:

   "vtr_gen05"

   Resultado calculado

   • coef.contacted_3days = 0,00385365 0.003853649486872875
     2SLS effect of contacted_3days on vtr_gen05
   Diagnósticos: first_stage_F.contacted_3days = 2.033,222033.2184432232875 (Wald F of the excluded instruments in the first stage for contacted_3days (heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors (HC1))) · partial_r2.contacted_3days = 0,4912030.49120252933552255 (share of the variation the instruments explain beyond the controls) · weak_instrument = false (every first-stage F is at least 10) · n_obs = 24.17124171 · se_type = "HC1" (heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors (HC1))
3. 3Conferência de lastro e resposta final

   Todos os 1 números escritos na resposta foram conferidos contra as ferramentas e o enunciado (nenhum número sem lastro).

   Números encontrados: 0,003854
   Figuras citadas: call_3e2dc1b6:coef.contacted_3days
   • ✓
     #0resposta com lastro

     every number in the answer was stated by a tool call
   • ✗
     #1figura da resposta próxima

     CauSciBench effect accuracy: |answer figure − gold| ≤ 5% of |gold|

Valores esperados e de onde vêm

Verificações

Caminho de referência e caminho do agente

A chamada de referência ao lado da chamada que deu a resposta, argumento por argumento.

Trajetória

Cada evento na ordem em que aconteceu: turnos do modelo, chamadas de ferramentas, guardas, transformações e pontuação.

1. 0Início

   Among high-propensity voters, defined as those with a voting propensity greater than 0.68, what is the effect of receiving a get-out-the-vote phone call three days prior to the election on turnout?

   panagopoulos_timing (agent)

   The dataset consists of 25,000 registered voters in Rochester, New York, who were part of a randomized field experiment during the November 2005 municipal elections. Voters were randomly assigned to one of four groups: a phone reminder call scheduled for 4 weeks before Election Day, 2 weeks before, 3 days before, or a control group that received no call. The calls were nonpartisan get-out-the-vote reminders, delivered using standardized scripts. The unit of observation is the individual registered voter, and only those appearing on the official registration list were included. The main outcome is voter turnout in the 2005 election, while additional measures capture past voting history, party registration, demographics, and a predicted propensity to vote. The dataset also records whether each assigned reminder call was actually completed, allowing for comparison between group assignment and the reality of who was contacted. Data variables: vtr_gen01: Voted (2001) vtr_gen03: Voted (2003) vtr_gen05: Outcome: Voted 2005 treated: Successfully contacted four_weeks: Experimental group: Called 4 weeks before election two_weeks: Experimental group: Called 2 weeks before election three_days: Experimental group: Called 3 days before election control: Experimental group: Control, i.e., did not receive any calls democrat: Registered Democrat republican: Registered Republican unenrolled: Unaffiliated other_party: Other party registration age: Age (years) age_squared: Age squared contacted_4weeks: Successfully contacted: 4 weeks contacted_2weeks: Successfully contacted: 2 weeks contacted_3days: Successfully contacted: 3 days vote_prop: Predicted vote propensity use: Subject included id: Subject ID

   file 37ac4466ad26ac40012073e833298d7e3f2f8e8fbe8eb1fa90268ec2e1181ad7 · frame —
2. 1Turno do modelo
   call_9cb8342creferenceFim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache

   Texto visível

   causcibench_metadata_rule/1: iv

   Chamadas pedidas

   • infer.iv_2sls

     {
       "dataset": "panagopoulos_timing",
       "endog": [
         "contacted_3days"
       ],
       "exog": [
         "democrat",
         "republican",
         "unenrolled",
         "other_party",
         "age",
         "age_squared",
         "vtr_gen01",
         "vtr_gen03"
       ],
       "instruments": [
         "three_days"
       ],
       "y": "vtr_gen05"
     }

   Mensagens (formato neutro)Instruções do sistemaFerramentas oferecidas
3. 2Ferramenta
   infer.iv_2sls— Variáveis instrumentais por mínimos quadrados em dois estágios (MQ2E)v0.1.0call_3e2dc1b6decidido pelo modeloreexecutável

   Motivo: causcibench_metadata_rule/1: iv

   Argumentos

   {
     "cluster": null,
     "dataset": "panagopoulos_timing",
     "endog": [
       "contacted_3days"
     ],
     "exog": [
       "democrat",
       "republican",
       "unenrolled",
       "other_party",
       "age",
       "age_squared",
       "vtr_gen01",
       "vtr_gen03"
     ],
     "instruments": [
       "three_days"
     ],
     "level": 0.95,
     "se": "HC1",
     "subset": null,
     "y": "vtr_gen05"
   }

   Figuras call_3e2dc1b6

   Chave	Valor	Valor bruto	Erro-padrão	IC
   coef.contacted_3days 2SLS effect of contacted_3days on vtr_gen05	0,00385365	0.003853649486872875	0,01901380.019013830982771096	-0,0334146 – 0,0411219

   Diagnósticos

   • first_stage_F.contacted_3days = 2.033,222033.2184432232875 (Wald F of the excluded instruments in the first stage for contacted_3days (heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors (HC1)))
   • partial_r2.contacted_3days = 0,4912030.49120252933552255 (share of the variation the instruments explain beyond the controls)
   • weak_instrument = false (every first-stage F is at least 10)
   • n_obs = 24.17124171
   • se_type = "HC1" (heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors (HC1))
   • n_clusters = — (errors not clustered)

   Derivação matemática e pressupostos

   coef.contacted_3days

   1. Com um instrumento e um regressor endógeno, o MQ2E é a razão entre o coeficiente de three_days na forma reduzida (vtr_gen05 sobre three_days e os controles) e no primeiro estágio (contacted_3days sobre three_days e os controles).β = ρ / π→ 0,00385365 (0.003853649486872875)
   2. Erro-padrão robusto à heterocedasticidade (HC1): a raiz da variância estimada do coeficiente.ep = √V_jj→ 0,0190138 (0.019013830982771096)
   3. Intervalo de 95% de confiança: a estimativa mais ou menos o valor crítico da distribuição t de Student com 24161 graus de liberdade vezes o erro-padrão.IC = β ± c · ep

   Pressupostos do estimador

   • the instruments affect the outcome only through the endogenous regressors (exclusion restriction)
   • the instruments are as good as randomly assigned given the controls
   • errors are independent across observations; their variance may differ

   Tabelas (3)

   {
     "coefficients": [
       {
         "ci_high": 0.028092743705918244,
         "ci_low": -0.040881112090955324,
         "coef": -0.006394184192518538,
         "p": 0.7162995574914452,
         "se": 0.017594813232062054,
         "t": -0.36341301883595845,
         "term": "Intercept"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.04870457254181071,
         "ci_low": -0.012073768166990111,
         "coef": 0.018315402187410297,
         "p": 0.23748735301743137,
         "se": 0.015504186926642098,
         "t": 1.1813197476313615,
         "term": "democrat"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.011270086571664832,
         "ci_low": -0.05032984096926176,
         "coef": -0.019529877198798465,
         "p": 0.21393471264675448,
         "se": 0.015713768755846284,
         "t": -1.2428512537154655,
         "term": "republican"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": -0.00041415233665221055,
         "ci_low": -0.0624043045281415,
         "coef": -0.03140922843239685,
         "p": 0.047016598115522126,
         "se": 0.015813312702837114,
         "t": -1.986252281393362,
         "term": "unenrolled"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.02601963962381732,
         "ci_low": -0.04560091604241428,
         "coef": -0.009790638209298477,
         "p": 0.5920416352982516,
         "se": 0.018269970352751665,
         "t": -0.5358869237477386,
         "term": "other_party"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.0050561567546655905,
         "ci_low": 0.003659109174918845,
         "coef": 0.004357632964792218,
         "p": 2.797768893590162e-34,
         "se": 0.0003563783836347816,
         "t": 12.227545678690607,
         "term": "age"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": -0.00001650586663948991,
         "ci_low": -0.000024960199592835418,
         "coef": -0.000020733033116162664,
         "p": 7.670226566055696e-22,
         "se": 0.0000021566491766656374,
         "t": -9.613539995511784,
         "term": "age_squared"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.30513638924338915,
         "ci_low": 0.27571793802256817,
         "coef": 0.29042716363297866,
         "p": 0,
         "se": 0.007504468886460809,
         "t": 38.700562028707054,
         "term": "vtr_gen01"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.3543955460942047,
         "ci_low": 0.3253037388507081,
         "coef": 0.3398496424724564,
         "p": 0,
         "se": 0.0074211439844671405,
         "t": 45.794778161396714,
         "term": "vtr_gen03"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.041121940404618584,
         "ci_low": -0.03341464143087283,
         "coef": 0.003853649486872875,
         "p": 0.8393898959835998,
         "se": 0.019013830982771096,
         "t": 0.2026761198395401,
         "term": "contacted_3days"
       }
     ],
     "first_stage": [
       {
         "ci_high": 0.5332636032310409,
         "ci_low": 0.48883421935432536,
         "coef": 0.5110489112926832,
         "endog": "contacted_3days",
         "instrument": "three_days",
         "p": 0,
         "se": 0.011333666971273403,
         "t": 45.091223572035474
       }
     ],
     "reduced_form": [
       {
         "ci_high": 0.021020018970740448,
         "ci_low": -0.017081212221200487,
         "coef": 0.001969403374769979,
         "instrument": "three_days",
         "p": 0.8394289484183484,
         "se": 0.00971939351495853,
         "t": 0.20262615889962574
       }
     ]
   }

   • 829 rows were dropped because one of 'vtr_gen05', 'contacted_3days', 'three_days', 'democrat', 'republican', 'unenrolled', 'other_party', 'age', 'age_squared', 'vtr_gen01', 'vtr_gen03' was missing

   Hashes SHA-256 e metadados de reprodução

   Digests dos dados

   panagopoulos_timing a9840be060a94f8bcf5d9657e12a817f7e5a23d132aea3f8161124cbc615d87e

   sha256 do resultado

   83dd4472087f19b0b5f37aefb10c147bbe71e60726a35043ac5b7c879221be0c

   Resultado mostrado ao modelo
4. 3Turno do modelo
   call_9b0e180dreferenceFim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache

   Chamadas pedidas

   • submit_answer (meta-ferramenta)

     {
       "answer": "Estimativa (infer.iv_2sls): coef.contacted_3days = 0,003854.",
       "caveats": [],
       "figure_refs": [
         "call_3e2dc1b6:coef.contacted_3days"
       ]
     }

   Mensagens (formato neutro)Instruções do sistemaFerramentas oferecidas
5. 4Guarda
   resposta aceita

   Números encontrados

   0,003854

   Sem lastro

   —

   Não citados

   —

   1 nova(s) tentativa(s) restante(s)
6. 5Resposta

   Estimativa (infer.iv_2sls): coef.contacted_3days = 0,003854.

   Figuras citadas: call_3e2dc1b6:coef.contacted_3days · Parada: answered

   Figura da resposta: call_3e2dc1b6:coef.contacted_3days = 0,003853650.003853649486872875 (se 0,01901380.019013830982771096)
7. 6Pontuação
   #0resposta com lastropassouobrigatóriaevery number backed
8. 7Pontuação
   #1figura da resposta próximafalhouobrigatória0.003853649487 vs -0.018

Épocas × verificações

Tentativas

Cada tentativa é seu próprio arquivo e é publicada; só a última de cada época é pontuada.

• época 1, tentativa 1falhoupontuada(exibindo)

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