Tarefa causcibench_real.q083

Veredito

Pergunta feita ao analista

Does experiencing an offshoring event cause a reduction in the incumbent government party's (PP) vote share in Catalan municipalities between the 2000 and 2004 elections?

Como o agente resolveu e como foi validado

Resumo passo a passo do que o agente executou, por que o caminho está correto e como cada verificação conferiu o resultado.

1. 1Preparação da base de dados
   rickard_incumbents— The dataset tracks municipalities in Spain across multiple election cycles to study the effect of local offshoring events on incumbent vote shares. Offshoring events were identified using corporate balance sheet databases, prior academic compilations, media reports, and public restructuring monitors. Each event was verified through at least two independent sources to ensure accuracy. For every confirmed event, the exact plant location and the number of jobs lost were recorded. These events were then matched with municipality-level election results to capture changes in incumbent party vote shares across elections. Additional contextual variables, such as population, unemployment, and economic growth, were obtained from official regional statistical agencies. Data variables: codi: Municipality code year: Election year spp: Incumbent party vote share (%) postp: Post-treatment period indicator treatment_postp: Treatment _ Post period indicator intensity_postp: Number of jobs lost due to offshoring pop_thou: Population in thousands urate: Local unemployment rate (%) yrrate: Local economic growth rate (%)
2. 2Chamada que gerou a resposta finalinfer.ols(Regressão linear por mínimos quadrados ordinários (MQO))citada na respostacoincide com a referência

   Ver chamada call_ca201e3f nos detalhes

   causcibench_metadata_rule/1: did

   Por que este é o caminho de referência: causcibench_metadata_rule/1: did
   Argumentos principais

   dataset:

   "rickard_incumbents"

   fe:

   ["codi","year"]

   intercept:

   true

   level:

   0,950.95

   se:

   "HC1"

   x:

   ["treatment_postp"]

   y:

   "spp"

   Resultado calculado

   • coef.treatment_postp = -1,94669 -1.9466891012147194
     Coefficient on treatment_postp in the regression of spp
   Diagnósticos: n_obs = 1.8851885 (observations used) · k = 945945 (parameters estimated, fixed-effect dummies included) · r2 = 0,9292580.9292575559955834 · df_resid = 940940 · se_type = "HC1" (heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors (HC1)) · fixed_effects = "codi (943 levels), year (2 levels)" (absorbed as dummies; their coefficients are not tabulated)
3. 3Conferência de lastro e resposta final

   Todos os 1 números escritos na resposta foram conferidos contra as ferramentas e o enunciado (nenhum número sem lastro).

   Números encontrados: -1,947
   Figuras citadas: call_ca201e3f:coef.treatment_postp
   • ✓
     #0resposta com lastro

     every number in the answer was stated by a tool call
   • ✓
     #1figura da resposta próxima

     CauSciBench effect accuracy: |answer figure − gold| ≤ 5% of |gold|

Valores esperados e de onde vêm

Verificações

Caminho de referência e caminho do agente

A chamada de referência ao lado da chamada que deu a resposta, argumento por argumento.

Trajetória

Cada evento na ordem em que aconteceu: turnos do modelo, chamadas de ferramentas, guardas, transformações e pontuação.

1. 0Início

   Does experiencing an offshoring event cause a reduction in the incumbent government party's (PP) vote share in Catalan municipalities between the 2000 and 2004 elections?

   rickard_incumbents (agent)

   The dataset tracks municipalities in Spain across multiple election cycles to study the effect of local offshoring events on incumbent vote shares. Offshoring events were identified using corporate balance sheet databases, prior academic compilations, media reports, and public restructuring monitors. Each event was verified through at least two independent sources to ensure accuracy. For every confirmed event, the exact plant location and the number of jobs lost were recorded. These events were then matched with municipality-level election results to capture changes in incumbent party vote shares across elections. Additional contextual variables, such as population, unemployment, and economic growth, were obtained from official regional statistical agencies. Data variables: codi: Municipality code year: Election year spp: Incumbent party vote share (%) postp: Post-treatment period indicator treatment_postp: Treatment _ Post period indicator intensity_postp: Number of jobs lost due to offshoring pop_thou: Population in thousands urate: Local unemployment rate (%) yrrate: Local economic growth rate (%)

   file 0746afc96c5d923f64d1274eef4643ebc91c4f02dfd9a91d4782fa220e709f22 · frame —
2. 1Turno do modelo
   call_9c1c6955referenceFim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache

   Texto visível

   causcibench_metadata_rule/1: did

   Chamadas pedidas

   • infer.ols

     {
       "controls": [],
       "dataset": "rickard_incumbents",
       "fe": [
         "codi",
         "year"
       ],
       "x": [
         "treatment_postp"
       ],
       "y": "spp"
     }

   Mensagens (formato neutro)Instruções do sistemaFerramentas oferecidas
3. 2Ferramenta
   infer.ols— Regressão linear por mínimos quadrados ordinários (MQO)v0.1.0call_ca201e3fdecidido pelo modeloreexecutável

   Motivo: causcibench_metadata_rule/1: did

   Argumentos

   {
     "cluster": null,
     "controls": [],
     "dataset": "rickard_incumbents",
     "fe": [
       "codi",
       "year"
     ],
     "intercept": true,
     "level": 0.95,
     "se": "HC1",
     "subset": null,
     "weights": null,
     "x": [
       "treatment_postp"
     ],
     "y": "spp"
   }

   Figuras call_ca201e3f

   Chave	Valor	Valor bruto	Erro-padrão	IC
   coef.treatment_postp Coefficient on treatment_postp in the regression of spp	-1,94669	-1.9466891012147194	0,4633040.4633039609710343	-2,85592 – -1,03746

   Diagnósticos

   • n_obs = 1.8851885 (observations used)
   • k = 945945 (parameters estimated, fixed-effect dummies included)
   • r2 = 0,9292580.9292575559955834
   • df_resid = 940940
   • se_type = "HC1" (heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors (HC1))
   • n_clusters = — (errors not clustered)
   • fixed_effects = "codi (943 levels), year (2 levels)" (absorbed as dummies; their coefficients are not tabulated)

   Derivação matemática e pressupostos

   coef.treatment_postp

   1. Coeficiente de treatment_postp na regressão por mínimos quadrados ordinários de spp, efeitos fixos de codi, year.→ -1,94669 (-1.9466891012147194)
   2. Erro-padrão robusto à heterocedasticidade (HC1): a raiz da variância estimada do coeficiente.ep = √V_jj→ 0,463304 (0.4633039609710343)
   3. Intervalo de 95% de confiança: a estimativa mais ou menos o valor crítico da distribuição t de Student com 940 graus de liberdade vezes o erro-padrão.IC = β ± c · ep

   Pressupostos do estimador

   • the conditional mean of the outcome is linear in the regressors
   • errors are independent across observations; their variance may differ

   Tabelas (1)

   {
     "coefficients": [
       {
         "ci_high": 26.889603186117125,
         "ci_low": 25.659129036105096,
         "coef": 26.27436611111111,
         "p": 0,
         "se": 0.3134980564377004,
         "t": 83.8102998457742,
         "term": "Intercept"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": -1.0374593055806773,
         "ci_low": -2.8559188968487614,
         "coef": -1.9466891012147194,
         "p": 0.000029008631838855637,
         "se": 0.4633039609710343,
         "t": -4.20175363304616,
         "term": "treatment_postp"
       }
     ]
   }

   • 5 rows were dropped because one of 'spp', 'treatment_postp', 'codi', 'year' was missing

   Hashes SHA-256 e metadados de reprodução

   Digests dos dados

   rickard_incumbents 96e74d9d15dfe76135972255aaa0bec719abcf8f25cb7c3e1d9480320741f826

   sha256 do resultado

   6fa5ceb26bda3eb1c7e34d474035bf0bf248413e257e20136ee0f1a24423ed92

   Resultado mostrado ao modelo
4. 3Turno do modelo
   call_5356c6cdreferenceFim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache

   Chamadas pedidas

   • submit_answer (meta-ferramenta)

     {
       "answer": "Estimativa (infer.ols): coef.treatment_postp = -1,947.",
       "caveats": [],
       "figure_refs": [
         "call_ca201e3f:coef.treatment_postp"
       ]
     }

   Mensagens (formato neutro)Instruções do sistemaFerramentas oferecidas
5. 4Guarda
   resposta aceita

   Números encontrados

   -1,947

   Sem lastro

   —

   Não citados

   —

   1 nova(s) tentativa(s) restante(s)
6. 5Resposta

   Estimativa (infer.ols): coef.treatment_postp = -1,947.

   Figuras citadas: call_ca201e3f:coef.treatment_postp · Parada: answered

   Figura da resposta: call_ca201e3f:coef.treatment_postp = -1,94669-1.9466891012147194 (se 0,4633040.4633039609710343)
7. 6Pontuação
   #0resposta com lastropassouobrigatóriaevery number backed
8. 7Pontuação
   #1figura da resposta próximapassouobrigatória-1.946689101 vs -1.947

Épocas × verificações

Tentativas

Cada tentativa é seu próprio arquivo e é publicada; só a última de cada época é pontuada.

• época 1, tentativa 1passoupontuada(exibindo)

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