Tarefa causcibench_real.q098

Veredito

Pergunta feita ao analista

In the UK, in very close elections, does just barely winning make it more likely that the party's candidate will stand again as the incumbent in the next election?

Como o agente resolveu e como foi validado

Resumo passo a passo do que o agente executou, por que o caminho está correto e como cada verificação conferiu o resultado.

1. 1Preparação da base de dados
   song_estimating_incumbency— The dataset is a panel of electoral constituencies across multiple countries and years, designed to study incumbency effects. Each row corresponds to a party's performance in a given constituency at a given election. Dataset Variables: year: The year of the election country: The country where the election took place (e.g., Canada, Japan, UK, USA, Romania, etc.) office: Name of the office being contested (e.g., House of Commons, Mayor) cst_n: Constituency identifier (e.g., ""abbotsford"", ""abitibi"") l_vmargin: Lagged vote margin: the party's vote margin in the previous election (Values more than 0 indicate the party won (positive) and values less than 0 indicate the party lost (negative)) vmargin: Current vote margin: the party's vote margin in the current election vs: Vote share of the party in the current election (between 0 and 1) win: Outcome of the current election: 1 means the party won the seat, 0 means the party lost l_win: Lagged win indicator: 1 means the party won the previous election in this constituency, 0 means the party lost inc: Incumbency indicator for the party's candidate in the current election: 1 means candidate is the incumbent, 0 means not incumbent, -1 appears to mark cases where incumbency is undefined or missing office_num: Encoded office type, combining country and office (e.g., Canada, House) rd_s: Indicator variable that equals 1 if the observation is part of a subset of elections defined by narrow vote margins, and 0 otherwise
2. 2Chamada que gerou a resposta finalinfer.rdd(Regressão descontínua (RDD))citada na respostacoincide com a referência

   Ver chamada call_878d39bc nos detalhes

   causcibench_metadata_rule/1: rdd

   Por que este é o caminho de referência: causcibench_metadata_rule/1: rdd
   Argumentos principais

   cutoff:

   00

   dataset:

   "song_estimating_incumbency"

   kernel:

   "triangular"

   level:

   0,950.95

   polynomial:

   11

   running:

   "l_vmargin"

   y:

   "win"

   Resultado calculado

   • effect = 0,0987102 0.09871020361757638
     Jump in win at the cutoff of l_vmargin
   Diagnósticos: bandwidth = 0,1053170.1053167716797159 (half-width of the window around the cutoff (Imbens–Kalyanaraman)) · bandwidth_method = "IK" · n_left = 8.0468046 (observations with positive weight below the cutoff) · n_right = 8.4598459 (observations with positive weight at or above the cutoff) · kernel = "triangular" · polynomial = 11 · bandwidth_sensitive = false (the estimates at half and double the bandwidth fall inside the main interval) · n_obs = 57.18757187 (rows used to choose the bandwidth) · se_type = "HC1" (heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors (HC1))
3. 3Conferência de lastro e resposta final

   Todos os 1 números escritos na resposta foram conferidos contra as ferramentas e o enunciado (nenhum número sem lastro).

   Números encontrados: 0,09871
   Figuras citadas: call_878d39bc:effect
   • ✓
     #0resposta com lastro

     every number in the answer was stated by a tool call
   • ✗
     #1figura da resposta próxima

     CauSciBench effect accuracy: |answer figure − gold| ≤ 5% of |gold|

Valores esperados e de onde vêm

Verificações

Caminho de referência e caminho do agente

A chamada de referência ao lado da chamada que deu a resposta, argumento por argumento.

Trajetória

Cada evento na ordem em que aconteceu: turnos do modelo, chamadas de ferramentas, guardas, transformações e pontuação.

1. 0Início

   In the UK, in very close elections, does just barely winning make it more likely that the party's candidate will stand again as the incumbent in the next election?

   song_estimating_incumbency (agent)

   The dataset is a panel of electoral constituencies across multiple countries and years, designed to study incumbency effects. Each row corresponds to a party's performance in a given constituency at a given election. Dataset Variables: year: The year of the election country: The country where the election took place (e.g., Canada, Japan, UK, USA, Romania, etc.) office: Name of the office being contested (e.g., House of Commons, Mayor) cst_n: Constituency identifier (e.g., ""abbotsford"", ""abitibi"") l_vmargin: Lagged vote margin: the party's vote margin in the previous election (Values more than 0 indicate the party won (positive) and values less than 0 indicate the party lost (negative)) vmargin: Current vote margin: the party's vote margin in the current election vs: Vote share of the party in the current election (between 0 and 1) win: Outcome of the current election: 1 means the party won the seat, 0 means the party lost l_win: Lagged win indicator: 1 means the party won the previous election in this constituency, 0 means the party lost inc: Incumbency indicator for the party's candidate in the current election: 1 means candidate is the incumbent, 0 means not incumbent, -1 appears to mark cases where incumbency is undefined or missing office_num: Encoded office type, combining country and office (e.g., Canada, House) rd_s: Indicator variable that equals 1 if the observation is part of a subset of elections defined by narrow vote margins, and 0 otherwise

   file f9455065815897f357981f2f97871fe8b7137acf6ef1b2772241d4bf05de9b10 · frame —
2. 1Turno do modelo
   call_9b0f08fcreferenceFim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache

   Texto visível

   causcibench_metadata_rule/1: rdd

   Chamadas pedidas

   • infer.rdd

     {
       "cutoff": 0,
       "dataset": "song_estimating_incumbency",
       "running": "l_vmargin",
       "y": "win"
     }

   Mensagens (formato neutro)Instruções do sistemaFerramentas oferecidas
3. 2Ferramenta
   infer.rdd— Regressão descontínua (RDD)v0.1.0call_878d39bcdecidido pelo modeloreexecutável

   Motivo: causcibench_metadata_rule/1: rdd

   Argumentos

   {
     "bandwidth": null,
     "cluster": null,
     "cutoff": 0,
     "dataset": "song_estimating_incumbency",
     "kernel": "triangular",
     "level": 0.95,
     "polynomial": 1,
     "running": "l_vmargin",
     "subset": null,
     "y": "win"
   }

   Figuras call_878d39bc

   Chave	Valor	Valor bruto	Erro-padrão	IC
   effect Jump in win at the cutoff of l_vmargin	0,0987102	0.09871020361757638	0,01638180.016381752687952524	0,0666026 – 0,130818

   Diagnósticos

   • bandwidth = 0,1053170.1053167716797159 (half-width of the window around the cutoff (Imbens–Kalyanaraman))
   • bandwidth_method = "IK"
   • n_left = 8.0468046 (observations with positive weight below the cutoff)
   • n_right = 8.4598459 (observations with positive weight at or above the cutoff)
   • kernel = "triangular"
   • polynomial = 11
   • bandwidth_sensitive = false (the estimates at half and double the bandwidth fall inside the main interval)
   • n_obs = 57.18757187 (rows used to choose the bandwidth)
   • se_type = "HC1" (heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors (HC1))

   Derivação matemática e pressupostos

   effect

   1. Ajuste linear ponderado (kernel triangular) de cada lado do limiar, com janela h (Imbens–Kalyanaraman); o efeito é a diferença entre os dois ajustes no limiar.→ 0,0987102 (0.09871020361757638)
   2. Erro-padrão robusto à heterocedasticidade (HC1): a raiz da variância estimada do coeficiente.ep = √V_jj→ 0,0163818 (0.016381752687952524)
   3. Intervalo de 95% de confiança: a estimativa mais ou menos o valor crítico da distribuição normal vezes o erro-padrão.IC = τ ± c · ep

   Pressupostos do estimador

   • units cannot precisely control the running variable around the cutoff
   • every other determinant of the outcome is continuous at the cutoff

   Tabelas (1)

   {
     "sensitivity": [
       {
         "bandwidth": 0.05265838583985795,
         "ci_high": 0.13529238135744426,
         "ci_low": 0.04547169666360212,
         "estimate": 0.09038203901052319,
         "multiplier": 0.5,
         "n_left": 4266,
         "n_right": 4455,
         "se": 0.02291386102049228
       },
       {
         "bandwidth": 0.1053167716797159,
         "ci_high": 0.13081784888960554,
         "ci_low": 0.06660255834554721,
         "estimate": 0.09871020361757638,
         "multiplier": 1,
         "n_left": 8046,
         "n_right": 8459,
         "se": 0.016381752687952524
       },
       {
         "bandwidth": 0.2106335433594318,
         "ci_high": 0.14556329994591158,
         "ci_low": 0.09953818771028664,
         "estimate": 0.1225507438280991,
         "multiplier": 2,
         "n_left": 14278,
         "n_right": 14796,
         "se": 0.011741315809541695
       }
     ]
   }

   • 966 rows were dropped because one of 'win', 'l_vmargin' was missing

   Hashes SHA-256 e metadados de reprodução

   Digests dos dados

   song_estimating_incumbency b92d2fca9483051609676957c56c11b23d396f4044f39bece8e32f8049a0c08d

   sha256 do resultado

   29fbea3cb8f969f3664d909f32d99435720101452fda5c452e3a10881df53704

   Resultado mostrado ao modelo
4. 3Turno do modelo
   call_8b9c7e1areferenceFim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache

   Chamadas pedidas

   • submit_answer (meta-ferramenta)

     {
       "answer": "Estimativa (infer.rdd): effect = 0,09871.",
       "caveats": [],
       "figure_refs": [
         "call_878d39bc:effect"
       ]
     }

   Mensagens (formato neutro)Instruções do sistemaFerramentas oferecidas
5. 4Guarda
   resposta aceita

   Números encontrados

   0,09871

   Sem lastro

   —

   Não citados

   —

   1 nova(s) tentativa(s) restante(s)
6. 5Resposta

   Estimativa (infer.rdd): effect = 0,09871.

   Figuras citadas: call_878d39bc:effect · Parada: answered

   Figura da resposta: call_878d39bc:effect = 0,09871020.09871020361757638 (se 0,01638180.016381752687952524)
7. 6Pontuação
   #0resposta com lastropassouobrigatóriaevery number backed
8. 7Pontuação
   #1figura da resposta próximafalhouobrigatória0.09871020362 vs 0.086

Épocas × verificações

Tentativas

Cada tentativa é seu próprio arquivo e é publicada; só a última de cada época é pontuada.

• época 1, tentativa 1falhoupontuada(exibindo)

Downloads desta tarefa