Tarefa causcibench_real.q103

Veredito

Pergunta feita ao analista

What is the effect of receiving subsidized training on 30-month income of men?

Como o agente resolveu e como foi validado

Resumo passo a passo do que o agente executou, por que o caminho está correto e como cada verificação conferiu o resultado.

1. 1Preparação da base de dados
   abadie_instrumental_variables— This dataset was constructed to measure how subsidized Job Training Partnership Act (JTPA) programs affect not just average earnings but different points (quantiles) of the trainee earnings distribution. Data collection process: Data are drawn from the National JTPA Study - a large encouragement design randomized controlled trial under the JTPA. Eligible individuals were randomly assigned to be offered training services (treatment group) or excluded for 18 months (control group), with roughly 60% of those offered actually receiving training. Baseline demographic and economic covariates were collected before randomization, and earnings plus participation data were tracked for 30 months post-assignment via administrative records and follow-up interviews. Dataset variables: V1: Unique identifier for individuals income: Individual's income (continuous, ranges from 0 to ~155,760) JTPA training offer: Whether the person was offered JTPA training (binary: 1 = yes, 0 = no) JTPA training participation: Whether the person actually participated in JTPA training (binary) male: Gender (1 = male, 0 = female) hsorged: Completed high school or earned a GED (1 = yes, 0 = no) black: Race indicator (1 = Black, 0 = otherwise) hispanic: Ethnicity indicator (1 = Hispanic, 0 = otherwise) married: Marital status (1 = married, 0 = unmarried) wkless13: Employment status: whether worked less than 13 weeks in the year before program entry (1 = yes, 0 = no) afdc: Receipt of Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC welfare program) (1 = yes, 0 = no) age2225: Age group indicator (22-25 years old) age2629: Age group indicator (26-29 years old) age3035: Age group indicator (30-35 years old) age3644: Age group indicator (36-44 years old) age4554: Age group indicator (45-54 years old) class_tr: Participation in classroom training (1 = yes, 0 = no) ojt_jsa: Participation in on-the-job training (OJT) or job search assistance (JSA) f2sms: Indicator for assignment to ""Follow-up survey sample"" or another experimental grouping
2. 2Chamada que gerou a resposta finalinfer.iv_2sls(Variáveis instrumentais por mínimos quadrados em dois estágios (MQ2E))citada na respostacoincide com a referência

   Ver chamada call_f2aa807c nos detalhes

   causcibench_metadata_rule/1: iv

   Por que este é o caminho de referência: causcibench_metadata_rule/1: iv
   Argumentos principais

   dataset:

   "abadie_instrumental_variables"

   endog:

   ["JTPA training participation"]

   exog:

   ["hsorged","black","hispanic","married","wkless13","class_tr","ojt_jsa","age2225","age2629","age3035","age3644","age4554","f2sms"]

   instruments:

   ["JTPA training offer"]

   level:

   0,950.95

   se:

   "HC1"

   y:

   "income"

   Resultado calculado

   • coef.JTPA training participation = 1.702,65 1702.6480696896685
     2SLS effect of JTPA training participation on income
   Diagnósticos: first_stage_F.JTPA training participation = 11.272,911272.943843826715 (Wald F of the excluded instruments in the first stage for JTPA training participation (heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors (HC1))) · partial_r2.JTPA training participation = 0,3600870.3600868627355367 (share of the variation the instruments explain beyond the controls) · weak_instrument = false (every first-stage F is at least 10) · n_obs = 11.20411204 · se_type = "HC1" (heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors (HC1))
3. 3Conferência de lastro e resposta final

   Todos os 1 números escritos na resposta foram conferidos contra as ferramentas e o enunciado (nenhum número sem lastro).

   Números encontrados: 1703
   Figuras citadas: call_f2aa807c:coef.JTPA training participation
   • ✓
     #0resposta com lastro

     every number in the answer was stated by a tool call
   • ✗
     #1figura da resposta próxima

     CauSciBench effect accuracy: |answer figure − gold| ≤ 5% of |gold|

Valores esperados e de onde vêm

Verificações

Caminho de referência e caminho do agente

A chamada de referência ao lado da chamada que deu a resposta, argumento por argumento.

Trajetória

Cada evento na ordem em que aconteceu: turnos do modelo, chamadas de ferramentas, guardas, transformações e pontuação.

1. 0Início

   What is the effect of receiving subsidized training on 30-month income of men?

   abadie_instrumental_variables (agent)

   This dataset was constructed to measure how subsidized Job Training Partnership Act (JTPA) programs affect not just average earnings but different points (quantiles) of the trainee earnings distribution. Data collection process: Data are drawn from the National JTPA Study - a large encouragement design randomized controlled trial under the JTPA. Eligible individuals were randomly assigned to be offered training services (treatment group) or excluded for 18 months (control group), with roughly 60% of those offered actually receiving training. Baseline demographic and economic covariates were collected before randomization, and earnings plus participation data were tracked for 30 months post-assignment via administrative records and follow-up interviews. Dataset variables: V1: Unique identifier for individuals income: Individual's income (continuous, ranges from 0 to ~155,760) JTPA training offer: Whether the person was offered JTPA training (binary: 1 = yes, 0 = no) JTPA training participation: Whether the person actually participated in JTPA training (binary) male: Gender (1 = male, 0 = female) hsorged: Completed high school or earned a GED (1 = yes, 0 = no) black: Race indicator (1 = Black, 0 = otherwise) hispanic: Ethnicity indicator (1 = Hispanic, 0 = otherwise) married: Marital status (1 = married, 0 = unmarried) wkless13: Employment status: whether worked less than 13 weeks in the year before program entry (1 = yes, 0 = no) afdc: Receipt of Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC welfare program) (1 = yes, 0 = no) age2225: Age group indicator (22-25 years old) age2629: Age group indicator (26-29 years old) age3035: Age group indicator (30-35 years old) age3644: Age group indicator (36-44 years old) age4554: Age group indicator (45-54 years old) class_tr: Participation in classroom training (1 = yes, 0 = no) ojt_jsa: Participation in on-the-job training (OJT) or job search assistance (JSA) f2sms: Indicator for assignment to ""Follow-up survey sample"" or another experimental grouping

   file 07f3f196b42e8b021c7ed300807753a0c7ee104d9466807fc298890879e73c38 · frame —
2. 1Turno do modelo
   call_941fbd93referenceFim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache

   Texto visível

   causcibench_metadata_rule/1: iv

   Chamadas pedidas

   • infer.iv_2sls

     {
       "dataset": "abadie_instrumental_variables",
       "endog": [
         "JTPA training participation"
       ],
       "exog": [
         "hsorged",
         "black",
         "hispanic",
         "married",
         "wkless13",
         "class_tr",
         "ojt_jsa",
         "age2225",
         "age2629",
         "age3035",
         "age3644",
         "age4554",
         "f2sms"
       ],
       "instruments": [
         "JTPA training offer"
       ],
       "y": "income"
     }

   Mensagens (formato neutro)Instruções do sistemaFerramentas oferecidas
3. 2Ferramenta
   infer.iv_2sls— Variáveis instrumentais por mínimos quadrados em dois estágios (MQ2E)v0.1.0call_f2aa807cdecidido pelo modeloreexecutável

   Motivo: causcibench_metadata_rule/1: iv

   Argumentos

   {
     "cluster": null,
     "dataset": "abadie_instrumental_variables",
     "endog": [
       "JTPA training participation"
     ],
     "exog": [
       "hsorged",
       "black",
       "hispanic",
       "married",
       "wkless13",
       "class_tr",
       "ojt_jsa",
       "age2225",
       "age2629",
       "age3035",
       "age3644",
       "age4554",
       "f2sms"
     ],
     "instruments": [
       "JTPA training offer"
     ],
     "level": 0.95,
     "se": "HC1",
     "subset": null,
     "y": "income"
   }

   Figuras call_f2aa807c

   Chave	Valor	Valor bruto	Erro-padrão	IC
   coef.JTPA training participation 2SLS effect of JTPA training participation on income	1.702,65	1702.6480696896685	503,552503.5516981474554	715,598 – 2.689,7

   Diagnósticos

   • first_stage_F.JTPA training participation = 11.272,911272.943843826715 (Wald F of the excluded instruments in the first stage for JTPA training participation (heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors (HC1)))
   • partial_r2.JTPA training participation = 0,3600870.3600868627355367 (share of the variation the instruments explain beyond the controls)
   • weak_instrument = false (every first-stage F is at least 10)
   • n_obs = 11.20411204
   • se_type = "HC1" (heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors (HC1))
   • n_clusters = — (errors not clustered)

   Derivação matemática e pressupostos

   coef.JTPA training participation

   1. Com um instrumento e um regressor endógeno, o MQ2E é a razão entre o coeficiente de JTPA training offer na forma reduzida (income sobre JTPA training offer e os controles) e no primeiro estágio (JTPA training participation sobre JTPA training offer e os controles).β = ρ / π→ 1.702,65 (1702.6480696896685)
   2. Erro-padrão robusto à heterocedasticidade (HC1): a raiz da variância estimada do coeficiente.ep = √V_jj→ 503,552 (503.5516981474554)
   3. Intervalo de 95% de confiança: a estimativa mais ou menos o valor crítico da distribuição t de Student com 11189 graus de liberdade vezes o erro-padrão.IC = β ± c · ep

   Pressupostos do estimador

   • the instruments affect the outcome only through the endogenous regressors (exclusion restriction)
   • the instruments are as good as randomly assigned given the controls
   • errors are independent across observations; their variance may differ

   Tabelas (3)

   {
     "coefficients": [
       {
         "ci_high": 12611.997071626314,
         "ci_low": 9440.113047230998,
         "coef": 11026.055059428656,
         "p": 5.908534897288086e-42,
         "se": 809.0814252230848,
         "t": 13.627868241306473,
         "term": "Intercept"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 4352.359414880281,
         "ci_low": 3061.204487620525,
         "coef": 3706.781951250403,
         "p": 3.142674231390705e-29,
         "se": 329.3466787236278,
         "t": 11.254954704920403,
         "term": "hsorged"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": -701.3539219581587,
         "ci_low": -2097.8700815005386,
         "coef": -1399.6120017293485,
         "p": 0.00008579744380681868,
         "se": 356.2221304497472,
         "t": -3.929042813713658,
         "term": "black"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 161.17235312981416,
         "ci_low": -1712.2115329459505,
         "coef": -775.5195899080682,
         "p": 0.10463951393187298,
         "se": 477.86113643455036,
         "t": -1.6228973875013712,
         "term": "hispanic"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 5078.301042312055,
         "ci_low": 3513.9894093083217,
         "coef": 4296.145225810188,
         "p": 6.699311187161305e-27,
         "se": 399.023254251862,
         "t": 10.766653772761016,
         "term": "married"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": -6516.594286697176,
         "ci_low": -7789.515153755572,
         "coef": -7153.054720226374,
         "p": 2.5255647024414334e-105,
         "se": 324.6955504661458,
         "t": -22.030036167595046,
         "term": "wkless13"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": -1724.1368954512845,
         "ci_low": -3276.6149176379477,
         "coef": -2500.375906544616,
         "p": 2.822070779154482e-10,
         "se": 396.0047470707126,
         "t": -6.314004882618582,
         "term": "class_tr"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 1833.1561868821295,
         "ci_low": 303.7285348799022,
         "coef": 1068.442360881016,
         "p": 0.006177697086844569,
         "se": 390.12507864106436,
         "t": 2.7387174508307868,
         "term": "ojt_jsa"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 5543.648442983713,
         "ci_low": 2679.3337054212593,
         "coef": 4111.491074202486,
         "p": 1.874025692790611e-8,
         "se": 730.6269183648081,
         "t": 5.627346831682957,
         "term": "age2225"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 6014.982222081624,
         "ci_low": 3097.1801464352934,
         "coef": 4556.081184258459,
         "p": 9.57806099192944e-10,
         "se": 744.2704221611183,
         "t": 6.121540032491264,
         "term": "age2629"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 5791.338294509802,
         "ci_low": 2907.95969429423,
         "coef": 4349.648994402016,
         "p": 3.4376519840728547e-9,
         "se": 735.489711911802,
         "t": 5.913949473332149,
         "term": "age3035"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 5305.758490320646,
         "ci_low": 2366.7238852148016,
         "coef": 3836.241187767724,
         "p": 3.153678918989525e-7,
         "se": 749.6863973556935,
         "t": 5.117127910148802,
         "term": "age3644"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 3524.4039598184254,
         "ci_low": 324.32721489610367,
         "coef": 1924.3655873572645,
         "p": 0.01841542577335949,
         "se": 816.2727999169481,
         "t": 2.357503015600985,
         "term": "age4554"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 2178.9603252458496,
         "ci_low": 886.229651709843,
         "coef": 1532.5949884778463,
         "p": 0.000003393803095882883,
         "se": 329.74861871675915,
         "t": 4.647767728162294,
         "term": "f2sms"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 2689.6980358724013,
         "ci_low": 715.5981035069357,
         "coef": 1702.6480696896685,
         "p": 0.0007239653280671672,
         "se": 503.5516981474554,
         "t": 3.381277584712029,
         "term": "JTPA training participation"
       }
     ],
     "first_stage": [
       {
         "ci_high": 0.6372441125397917,
         "ci_low": 0.6141411623590348,
         "coef": 0.6256926374494133,
         "endog": "JTPA training participation",
         "instrument": "JTPA training offer",
         "p": 0,
         "se": 0.005893080489494922,
         "t": 106.17412040524148
       }
     ],
     "reduced_form": [
       {
         "ci_high": 1683.7279548303702,
         "ci_low": 446.94076791419343,
         "coef": 1065.3343613722818,
         "instrument": "JTPA training offer",
         "p": 0.0007356188637250442,
         "se": 315.4786026826926,
         "t": 3.376883098609993
       }
     ]
   }

   Hashes SHA-256 e metadados de reprodução

   Digests dos dados

   abadie_instrumental_variables 7d1e5077d40b12f4726ea5b1690837de3f5067be68b661660c27c9d21475aa9d

   sha256 do resultado

   83244715339076d7680413a2c78d5bbdffbf2623a96417a88f9e359599a6f6e4

   Resultado mostrado ao modelo
4. 3Turno do modelo
   call_e6bf3a78referenceFim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache

   Chamadas pedidas

   • submit_answer (meta-ferramenta)

     {
       "answer": "Estimativa (infer.iv_2sls): coef.JTPA training participation = 1703.",
       "caveats": [],
       "figure_refs": [
         "call_f2aa807c:coef.JTPA training participation"
       ]
     }

   Mensagens (formato neutro)Instruções do sistemaFerramentas oferecidas
5. 4Guarda
   resposta aceita

   Números encontrados

   1703

   Sem lastro

   —

   Não citados

   —

   1 nova(s) tentativa(s) restante(s)
6. 5Resposta

   Estimativa (infer.iv_2sls): coef.JTPA training participation = 1703.

   Figuras citadas: call_f2aa807c:coef.JTPA training participation · Parada: answered

   Figura da resposta: call_f2aa807c:coef.JTPA training participation = 1.702,651702.6480696896685 (se 503,552503.5516981474554)
7. 6Pontuação
   #0resposta com lastropassouobrigatóriaevery number backed
8. 7Pontuação
   #1figura da resposta próximafalhouobrigatória1702.64807 vs 1592.937

Épocas × verificações

Tentativas

Cada tentativa é seu próprio arquivo e é publicada; só a última de cada época é pontuada.

• época 1, tentativa 1falhoupontuada(exibindo)

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