Tarefa causcibench_real.q119

Veredito

Pergunta feita ao analista

Does an increase in social capital increase the ratio of Black/White prisoners, while accounting for other relevant factors?

Como o agente resolveu e como foi validado

Resumo passo a passo do que o agente executou, por que o caminho está correto e como cada verificação conferiu o resultado.

1. 1Preparação da base de dados
   hawes_social_capital— "This study examines the differential effects of social capital on policy equity in state outcomes between 1986 and 2009. Specifically, it explores the relationship between social capital and incarceration rates in the American states paying particular attention to racial disparities in incarceration rates. State-level incarceration rates from 1986 to 2009 were obtained from the Bureau of Justice Statistics’ National Prisoners Statistics study. social capital is measured using an index created by Hawes, Rocha, and Meier (2013) using factor analysis of 22 items that capture the behavioral components of social capital. This index primarily relies on state-level data from a market research firm (MediaMark, Inc.) that conducts large annual surveys that include items related to organizational membership, volunteerism, and civic engagement. Data Variables: statename: State Name year: Year fips: FIPS State Code fipsyear: FIPS Code + Year VCRate_Total: Total Violent Crimes per 100,000 population PCRate_Total: Total Property Crimes per 100,000 population divorcerate: Divorce per 1,000 population women_leg: Percent Females in State Legislature SC8609_ma: Social Capital Index pop_pctblk: Percent Black Population felonspc: Voting-Ineligible Felons per 100,000 bwpovratio: Poverty Inequality (Black/White Ratio) bwcolratio: Education Inequality (Black/White Ratio) pov_rtfull: Poverty Rate unemp: Unemployment Rate govideo: Government Ideology totdempct: Proportion of Democrats in Entire Legislature racialdiversity: Racial Diversity (Blau Index) gsppc_k: GSP per Capita (in 2007 $1000) eduattain_ma: Percent with College Degree SC_RD: Social Capital X Racial Diversity jprison_totalrt: Total Inmates per 100,000 population prison_whtrt: White Inmates per 100,000 population prison_blkrt: Black Inmates per 100,000 population prison_BWratio: Black/White Incarceration Ratio ln_prison_BWratio: Logged Black/White Incarceration Ratio ln_pctblk: Logged Percent Black Population ln_SC_PBLK: Social Capital X ln(% Black) threestrikes: Three Strikes Law (Yes/No) GTClear: Trial Court Clearance Rate darrest2: Drug Arrests / Population blk_leg: Percent African Americans in State Legislature"
2. 2Chamada que gerou a resposta finalinfer.ols(Regressão linear por mínimos quadrados ordinários (MQO))citada na respostacoincide com a referência

   Ver chamada call_79a78337 nos detalhes

   causcibench_metadata_rule/1: did

   Por que este é o caminho de referência: causcibench_metadata_rule/1: did
   Argumentos principais

   controls:

   ["VCRate_Total","PCRate_Total","divorcerate","women_leg","pop_pctblk","felonspc","bwpovratio","bwcolratio","unemp","racialdiversity","govideo","threestrikes","blk_leg","totdempct","eduattain_ma","SC_RD"]

   dataset:

   "hawes_social_capital"

   fe:

   ["statename","year"]

   intercept:

   true

   level:

   0,950.95

   se:

   "HC1"

   x:

   ["SC8609_ma"]

   y:

   "prison_BWratio"

   Resultado calculado

   • coef.SC8609_ma = 1,82647 1.8264673303208343
     Coefficient on SC8609_ma in the regression of prison_BWratio
   Diagnósticos: n_obs = 1.1431143 (observations used) · k = 8888 (parameters estimated, fixed-effect dummies included) · r2 = 0,7387490.7387494127003897 · df_resid = 1.0551055 · se_type = "HC1" (heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors (HC1)) · fixed_effects = "statename (48 levels), year (24 levels)" (absorbed as dummies; their coefficients are not tabulated)
3. 3Conferência de lastro e resposta final

   Todos os 1 números escritos na resposta foram conferidos contra as ferramentas e o enunciado (nenhum número sem lastro).

   Números encontrados: 1,826
   Figuras citadas: call_79a78337:coef.SC8609_ma
   • ✓
     #0resposta com lastro

     every number in the answer was stated by a tool call
   • ✗
     #1figura da resposta próxima

     CauSciBench effect accuracy: |answer figure − gold| ≤ 5% of |gold|

Valores esperados e de onde vêm

Verificações

Caminho de referência e caminho do agente

A chamada de referência ao lado da chamada que deu a resposta, argumento por argumento.

Trajetória

Cada evento na ordem em que aconteceu: turnos do modelo, chamadas de ferramentas, guardas, transformações e pontuação.

1. 0Início

   Does an increase in social capital increase the ratio of Black/White prisoners, while accounting for other relevant factors?

   hawes_social_capital (agent)

   "This study examines the differential effects of social capital on policy equity in state outcomes between 1986 and 2009. Specifically, it explores the relationship between social capital and incarceration rates in the American states paying particular attention to racial disparities in incarceration rates. State-level incarceration rates from 1986 to 2009 were obtained from the Bureau of Justice Statistics’ National Prisoners Statistics study. social capital is measured using an index created by Hawes, Rocha, and Meier (2013) using factor analysis of 22 items that capture the behavioral components of social capital. This index primarily relies on state-level data from a market research firm (MediaMark, Inc.) that conducts large annual surveys that include items related to organizational membership, volunteerism, and civic engagement. Data Variables: statename: State Name year: Year fips: FIPS State Code fipsyear: FIPS Code + Year VCRate_Total: Total Violent Crimes per 100,000 population PCRate_Total: Total Property Crimes per 100,000 population divorcerate: Divorce per 1,000 population women_leg: Percent Females in State Legislature SC8609_ma: Social Capital Index pop_pctblk: Percent Black Population felonspc: Voting-Ineligible Felons per 100,000 bwpovratio: Poverty Inequality (Black/White Ratio) bwcolratio: Education Inequality (Black/White Ratio) pov_rtfull: Poverty Rate unemp: Unemployment Rate govideo: Government Ideology totdempct: Proportion of Democrats in Entire Legislature racialdiversity: Racial Diversity (Blau Index) gsppc_k: GSP per Capita (in 2007 $1000) eduattain_ma: Percent with College Degree SC_RD: Social Capital X Racial Diversity jprison_totalrt: Total Inmates per 100,000 population prison_whtrt: White Inmates per 100,000 population prison_blkrt: Black Inmates per 100,000 population prison_BWratio: Black/White Incarceration Ratio ln_prison_BWratio: Logged Black/White Incarceration Ratio ln_pctblk: Logged Percent Black Population ln_SC_PBLK: Social Capital X ln(% Black) threestrikes: Three Strikes Law (Yes/No) GTClear: Trial Court Clearance Rate darrest2: Drug Arrests / Population blk_leg: Percent African Americans in State Legislature"

   file 04fb48ac5f0d0709687b5a5013477e80ce7f00179a65d689ae7b633787a4fc33 · frame —
2. 1Turno do modelo
   call_be5c85c9referenceFim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache

   Texto visível

   causcibench_metadata_rule/1: did

   Chamadas pedidas

   • infer.ols

     {
       "controls": [
         "VCRate_Total",
         "PCRate_Total",
         "divorcerate",
         "women_leg",
         "pop_pctblk",
         "felonspc",
         "bwpovratio",
         "bwcolratio",
         "unemp",
         "racialdiversity",
         "govideo",
         "threestrikes",
         "blk_leg",
         "totdempct",
         "eduattain_ma",
         "SC_RD"
       ],
       "dataset": "hawes_social_capital",
       "fe": [
         "statename",
         "year"
       ],
       "x": [
         "SC8609_ma"
       ],
       "y": "prison_BWratio"
     }

   Mensagens (formato neutro)Instruções do sistemaFerramentas oferecidas
3. 2Ferramenta
   infer.ols— Regressão linear por mínimos quadrados ordinários (MQO)v0.1.0call_79a78337decidido pelo modeloreexecutável

   Motivo: causcibench_metadata_rule/1: did

   Argumentos

   {
     "cluster": null,
     "controls": [
       "VCRate_Total",
       "PCRate_Total",
       "divorcerate",
       "women_leg",
       "pop_pctblk",
       "felonspc",
       "bwpovratio",
       "bwcolratio",
       "unemp",
       "racialdiversity",
       "govideo",
       "threestrikes",
       "blk_leg",
       "totdempct",
       "eduattain_ma",
       "SC_RD"
     ],
     "dataset": "hawes_social_capital",
     "fe": [
       "statename",
       "year"
     ],
     "intercept": true,
     "level": 0.95,
     "se": "HC1",
     "subset": null,
     "weights": null,
     "x": [
       "SC8609_ma"
     ],
     "y": "prison_BWratio"
   }

   Figuras call_79a78337

   Chave	Valor	Valor bruto	Erro-padrão	IC
   coef.SC8609_ma Coefficient on SC8609_ma in the regression of prison_BWratio	1,82647	1.8264673303208343	0,3648520.3648524073066209	1,11055 – 2,54239

   Diagnósticos

   • n_obs = 1.1431143 (observations used)
   • k = 8888 (parameters estimated, fixed-effect dummies included)
   • r2 = 0,7387490.7387494127003897
   • df_resid = 1.0551055
   • se_type = "HC1" (heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors (HC1))
   • n_clusters = — (errors not clustered)
   • fixed_effects = "statename (48 levels), year (24 levels)" (absorbed as dummies; their coefficients are not tabulated)

   Derivação matemática e pressupostos

   coef.SC8609_ma

   1. Coeficiente de SC8609_ma na regressão por mínimos quadrados ordinários de prison_BWratio, efeitos fixos de statename, year.→ 1,82647 (1.8264673303208343)
   2. Erro-padrão robusto à heterocedasticidade (HC1): a raiz da variância estimada do coeficiente.ep = √V_jj→ 0,364852 (0.3648524073066209)
   3. Intervalo de 95% de confiança: a estimativa mais ou menos o valor crítico da distribuição t de Student com 1055 graus de liberdade vezes o erro-padrão.IC = β ± c · ep

   Pressupostos do estimador

   • the conditional mean of the outcome is linear in the regressors
   • errors are independent across observations; their variance may differ

   Tabelas (1)

   {
     "coefficients": [
       {
         "ci_high": 31.363892685441588,
         "ci_low": 15.734551557326572,
         "coef": 23.54922212138408,
         "p": 4.530864892612027e-9,
         "se": 3.98257585559161,
         "t": 5.913063046450336,
         "term": "Intercept"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 2.542386240842383,
         "ci_low": 1.1105484197992854,
         "coef": 1.8264673303208343,
         "p": 6.507420183800843e-7,
         "se": 0.3648524073066209,
         "t": 5.0060443449010235,
         "term": "SC8609_ma"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": -0.00219636665123298,
         "ci_low": -0.006050927314357655,
         "coef": -0.004123646982795317,
         "p": 0.000029147635460881856,
         "se": 0.0009821962490318323,
         "t": -4.198394146648459,
         "term": "VCRate_Total"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.00021120270302497806,
         "ci_low": -0.0005573084044855536,
         "coef": -0.00017305285073028777,
         "p": 0.3770591064400673,
         "se": 0.00019582743485070653,
         "t": -0.8837007483768478,
         "term": "PCRate_Total"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.3403051271986186,
         "ci_low": -0.07173472716042861,
         "coef": 0.134285200019095,
         "p": 0.20118349305490943,
         "se": 0.10499354784444045,
         "t": 1.278985259342349,
         "term": "divorcerate"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.15111456480016433,
         "ci_low": -0.03495116807059475,
         "coef": 0.058081698364784794,
         "p": 0.2208343784486317,
         "se": 0.04741216467219143,
         "t": 1.2250378941008646,
         "term": "women_leg"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": -0.8361801452645786,
         "ci_low": -1.3146932710369779,
         "coef": -1.0754367081507783,
         "p": 4.654356651831525e-18,
         "se": 0.12193187196206962,
         "t": -8.81998029592561,
         "term": "pop_pctblk"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.0006445842303166098,
         "ci_low": 0.00002922120687364122,
         "coef": 0.0003369027185951255,
         "p": 0.031895487589716276,
         "se": 0.00015680314988961993,
         "t": 2.1485711150081164,
         "term": "felonspc"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 1.8718463040315918,
         "ci_low": 0.9549069797878638,
         "coef": 1.4133766419097278,
         "p": 2.0194206442856703e-9,
         "se": 0.2336490312574029,
         "t": 6.049144027276794,
         "term": "bwpovratio"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 12.173718595567093,
         "ci_low": -1.7834038663391354,
         "coef": 5.195157364613979,
         "p": 0.14437853648497273,
         "se": 3.5564710293726227,
         "t": 1.4607618961907944,
         "term": "bwcolratio"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": -0.025840992921422945,
         "ci_low": -0.4134805506875765,
         "coef": -0.21966077180449972,
         "p": 0.026371181268112293,
         "se": 0.09877600922374156,
         "t": -2.2238271573306547,
         "term": "unemp"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 6.726853423603738,
         "ci_low": -2.3044197327982348,
         "coef": 2.2112168454027517,
         "p": 0.3368439998421098,
         "se": 2.3012953727933017,
         "t": 0.9608574681653259,
         "term": "racialdiversity"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.0071462020609645285,
         "ci_low": -0.0033704616856129145,
         "coef": 0.0018878701876758068,
         "p": 0.4812872723749468,
         "se": 0.0026797937785843374,
         "t": 0.7044833832971721,
         "term": "govideo"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 1.8190116092638124,
         "ci_low": 0.9850781786460958,
         "coef": 1.4020448939549541,
         "p": 6.585894972101007e-11,
         "se": 0.2124979625644242,
         "t": 6.5979215849182005,
         "term": "threestrikes"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.08557931358442866,
         "ci_low": -0.015193214482495908,
         "coef": 0.03519304955096638,
         "p": 0.17081027424387846,
         "se": 0.025678256933321205,
         "t": 1.3705388820725746,
         "term": "blk_leg"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.06348799489873347,
         "ci_low": 0.019213451791493436,
         "coef": 0.04135072334511345,
         "p": 0.0002593821545590093,
         "se": 0.01128177604870731,
         "t": 3.665267167739206,
         "term": "totdempct"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.07929123287568052,
         "ci_low": -0.25226444985549457,
         "coef": -0.08648660848990702,
         "p": 0.30621578150543477,
         "se": 0.08448504937000009,
         "t": -1.0236912818875343,
         "term": "eduattain_ma"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": -3.4314037928491072,
         "ci_low": -6.355249038425814,
         "coef": -4.8933264156374605,
         "p": 7.996184671330464e-11,
         "se": 0.7450368755195566,
         "t": -6.567898283189091,
         "term": "SC_RD"
       }
     ]
   }

   • 438 rows were dropped because one of 'prison_BWratio', 'SC8609_ma', 'VCRate_Total', 'PCRate_Total', 'divorcerate', 'women_leg', 'pop_pctblk', 'felonspc', 'bwpovratio', 'bwcolratio', 'unemp', 'racialdiversity', 'govideo', 'threestrikes', 'blk_leg', 'totdempct', 'eduattain_ma', 'SC_RD', 'statename', 'year' was missing

   Hashes SHA-256 e metadados de reprodução

   Digests dos dados

   hawes_social_capital e2b6dec2ff6051ed1011c66284c556c617a8a080000def1da9de89f583f88cbc

   sha256 do resultado

   cbf8f2de8a7b4085e34b92883ad67cd388cebce87ff653c1808ff4cd8028677f

   Resultado mostrado ao modelo
4. 3Turno do modelo
   call_94874986referenceFim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache

   Chamadas pedidas

   • submit_answer (meta-ferramenta)

     {
       "answer": "Estimativa (infer.ols): coef.SC8609_ma = 1,826.",
       "caveats": [],
       "figure_refs": [
         "call_79a78337:coef.SC8609_ma"
       ]
     }

   Mensagens (formato neutro)Instruções do sistemaFerramentas oferecidas
5. 4Guarda
   resposta aceita

   Números encontrados

   1,826

   Sem lastro

   —

   Não citados

   —

   1 nova(s) tentativa(s) restante(s)
6. 5Resposta

   Estimativa (infer.ols): coef.SC8609_ma = 1,826.

   Figuras citadas: call_79a78337:coef.SC8609_ma · Parada: answered

   Figura da resposta: call_79a78337:coef.SC8609_ma = 1,826471.8264673303208343 (se 0,3648520.3648524073066209)
7. 6Pontuação
   #0resposta com lastropassouobrigatóriaevery number backed
8. 7Pontuação
   #1figura da resposta próximafalhouobrigatória1.82646733 vs 1.038

Épocas × verificações

Tentativas

Cada tentativa é seu próprio arquivo e é publicada; só a última de cada época é pontuada.

• época 1, tentativa 1falhoupontuada(exibindo)

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