Tarefa causcibench_real.q120

Veredito

Pergunta feita ao analista

How does social capital influence the maximum TANF benefit a family of three can claim when accounting for immigration?

Como o agente resolveu e como foi validado

Resumo passo a passo do que o agente executou, por que o caminho está correto e como cada verificação conferiu o resultado.

1. 1Preparação da base de dados
   hawes_give_us— A long-standing debate persists regarding how social capital relates to diversity and inequality in the American states. Putnam argues social capital leads to greater equality and tolerance; however, others find that it increases racial inequality. This study tests this using the case of immigration and welfare generosity following the Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act (PRWORA) of 1996. Variables - statename: Name of the U.S. state - year: Year of observation (1997-2009 based on the study period) - stateabrv: State abbreviation (two-letter postal code) - fips: Federal Information Processing Standards state code - fipsyear: FIPS code combined with year identifier - cpi2007: Consumer Price Index adjusted to 2007 dollars (for cost of living adjustments) - women_leg: Percent of women legislators in state legislature - cit_ideology: Citizen ideology measure (Berry et al.'s liberal-conservative scale) - SC8609_ma: Social capital index score, likely covering 1986-2009 with moving average - pop_pctblk: Percent of state population that is Black - pop_pcthisp: Percent of state population that is Hispanic/Latino - pov_rtfull: Poverty rate (percent of population below poverty line) - unemp: State unemployment rate - totdempct: Total percent of Democratic legislators in state legislature - high_school: Percent of adult population with high school degree or equivalent - pctfb_ma: Percent foreign-born population with moving average for non-census years - adj_incpcK: Adjusted per capita income in thousands of constant dollars - adj_GSPpcK: Adjusted Gross State Product per capita in thousands of constant dollars - pcturban_MA: Percent urban population with moving average - tanfbenefit: Maximum Temporary Assitance for Needy Families (TANF) cash benefit level for family of three (likely COLA-adjusted) - avgnbrtanf: Average neighboring states' TANF benefit levels - hvd_4yr: Holbrook and Van Dunk political competitiveness index (4-year measure) - SC_pFB: Social capital interacted with percent foreign-born (interaction term) - unmarried_births: Birth rate to unmarried mothers - tanfcaseloadK: TANF caseloads in thousands - tanf_scpi: TANF benefit adjusted by state cost of living index
2. 2Chamada que gerou a resposta finalinfer.ols(Regressão linear por mínimos quadrados ordinários (MQO))citada na respostacoincide com a referência

   Ver chamada call_318900d2 nos detalhes

   causcibench_metadata_rule/1: did

   Por que este é o caminho de referência: causcibench_metadata_rule/1: did
   Argumentos principais

   controls:

   ["pctfb_ma","tanfcaseloadK","avgnbrtanf","unmarried_births","pov_rtfull","cit_ideology","totdempct","hvd_4yr","women_leg","unemp","adj_GSPpcK","adj_incpcK","pcturban_MA","high_school","pop_pcthisp","pop_pctblk"]

   dataset:

   "hawes_give_us"

   fe:

   ["statename","year"]

   intercept:

   true

   level:

   0,950.95

   se:

   "HC1"

   x:

   ["SC8609_ma"]

   y:

   "tanfbenefit"

   Resultado calculado

   • coef.SC8609_ma = 5,34333 5.343329326256344
     Coefficient on SC8609_ma in the regression of tanfbenefit
   Diagnósticos: n_obs = 672672 (observations used) · k = 7878 (parameters estimated, fixed-effect dummies included) · r2 = 0,9461270.9461269463226807 · df_resid = 594594 · se_type = "HC1" (heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors (HC1)) · fixed_effects = "statename (48 levels), year (14 levels)" (absorbed as dummies; their coefficients are not tabulated)
3. 3Conferência de lastro e resposta final

   Todos os 1 números escritos na resposta foram conferidos contra as ferramentas e o enunciado (nenhum número sem lastro).

   Números encontrados: 5,343
   Figuras citadas: call_318900d2:coef.SC8609_ma
   • ✓
     #0resposta com lastro

     every number in the answer was stated by a tool call
   • ✗
     #1figura da resposta próxima

     CauSciBench effect accuracy: |answer figure − gold| ≤ 5% of |gold|

Valores esperados e de onde vêm

Verificações

Caminho de referência e caminho do agente

A chamada de referência ao lado da chamada que deu a resposta, argumento por argumento.

Trajetória

Cada evento na ordem em que aconteceu: turnos do modelo, chamadas de ferramentas, guardas, transformações e pontuação.

1. 0Início

   How does social capital influence the maximum TANF benefit a family of three can claim when accounting for immigration?

   hawes_give_us (agent)

   A long-standing debate persists regarding how social capital relates to diversity and inequality in the American states. Putnam argues social capital leads to greater equality and tolerance; however, others find that it increases racial inequality. This study tests this using the case of immigration and welfare generosity following the Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act (PRWORA) of 1996. Variables - statename: Name of the U.S. state - year: Year of observation (1997-2009 based on the study period) - stateabrv: State abbreviation (two-letter postal code) - fips: Federal Information Processing Standards state code - fipsyear: FIPS code combined with year identifier - cpi2007: Consumer Price Index adjusted to 2007 dollars (for cost of living adjustments) - women_leg: Percent of women legislators in state legislature - cit_ideology: Citizen ideology measure (Berry et al.'s liberal-conservative scale) - SC8609_ma: Social capital index score, likely covering 1986-2009 with moving average - pop_pctblk: Percent of state population that is Black - pop_pcthisp: Percent of state population that is Hispanic/Latino - pov_rtfull: Poverty rate (percent of population below poverty line) - unemp: State unemployment rate - totdempct: Total percent of Democratic legislators in state legislature - high_school: Percent of adult population with high school degree or equivalent - pctfb_ma: Percent foreign-born population with moving average for non-census years - adj_incpcK: Adjusted per capita income in thousands of constant dollars - adj_GSPpcK: Adjusted Gross State Product per capita in thousands of constant dollars - pcturban_MA: Percent urban population with moving average - tanfbenefit: Maximum Temporary Assitance for Needy Families (TANF) cash benefit level for family of three (likely COLA-adjusted) - avgnbrtanf: Average neighboring states' TANF benefit levels - hvd_4yr: Holbrook and Van Dunk political competitiveness index (4-year measure) - SC_pFB: Social capital interacted with percent foreign-born (interaction term) - unmarried_births: Birth rate to unmarried mothers - tanfcaseloadK: TANF caseloads in thousands - tanf_scpi: TANF benefit adjusted by state cost of living index

   file dbd2ec92e684d3b5374d5971bcf3835571d7e0863fa970c92e235f7e1d411de5 · frame —
2. 1Turno do modelo
   call_6313c499referenceFim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache

   Texto visível

   causcibench_metadata_rule/1: did

   Chamadas pedidas

   • infer.ols

     {
       "controls": [
         "pctfb_ma",
         "tanfcaseloadK",
         "avgnbrtanf",
         "unmarried_births",
         "pov_rtfull",
         "cit_ideology",
         "totdempct",
         "hvd_4yr",
         "women_leg",
         "unemp",
         "adj_GSPpcK",
         "adj_incpcK",
         "pcturban_MA",
         "high_school",
         "pop_pcthisp",
         "pop_pctblk"
       ],
       "dataset": "hawes_give_us",
       "fe": [
         "statename",
         "year"
       ],
       "x": [
         "SC8609_ma"
       ],
       "y": "tanfbenefit"
     }

   Mensagens (formato neutro)Instruções do sistemaFerramentas oferecidas
3. 2Ferramenta
   infer.ols— Regressão linear por mínimos quadrados ordinários (MQO)v0.1.0call_318900d2decidido pelo modeloreexecutável

   Motivo: causcibench_metadata_rule/1: did

   Argumentos

   {
     "cluster": null,
     "controls": [
       "pctfb_ma",
       "tanfcaseloadK",
       "avgnbrtanf",
       "unmarried_births",
       "pov_rtfull",
       "cit_ideology",
       "totdempct",
       "hvd_4yr",
       "women_leg",
       "unemp",
       "adj_GSPpcK",
       "adj_incpcK",
       "pcturban_MA",
       "high_school",
       "pop_pcthisp",
       "pop_pctblk"
     ],
     "dataset": "hawes_give_us",
     "fe": [
       "statename",
       "year"
     ],
     "intercept": true,
     "level": 0.95,
     "se": "HC1",
     "subset": null,
     "weights": null,
     "x": [
       "SC8609_ma"
     ],
     "y": "tanfbenefit"
   }

   Figuras call_318900d2

   Chave	Valor	Valor bruto	Erro-padrão	IC
   coef.SC8609_ma Coefficient on SC8609_ma in the regression of tanfbenefit	5,34333	5.343329326256344	4,212694.212688456834862	-2,93025 – 13,6169

   Diagnósticos

   • n_obs = 672672 (observations used)
   • k = 7878 (parameters estimated, fixed-effect dummies included)
   • r2 = 0,9461270.9461269463226807
   • df_resid = 594594
   • se_type = "HC1" (heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors (HC1))
   • n_clusters = — (errors not clustered)
   • fixed_effects = "statename (48 levels), year (14 levels)" (absorbed as dummies; their coefficients are not tabulated)

   Derivação matemática e pressupostos

   coef.SC8609_ma

   1. Coeficiente de SC8609_ma na regressão por mínimos quadrados ordinários de tanfbenefit, efeitos fixos de statename, year.→ 5,34333 (5.343329326256344)
   2. Erro-padrão robusto à heterocedasticidade (HC1): a raiz da variância estimada do coeficiente.ep = √V_jj→ 4,21269 (4.212688456834862)
   3. Intervalo de 95% de confiança: a estimativa mais ou menos o valor crítico da distribuição t de Student com 594 graus de liberdade vezes o erro-padrão.IC = β ± c · ep

   Pressupostos do estimador

   • the conditional mean of the outcome is linear in the regressors
   • errors are independent across observations; their variance may differ

   Tabelas (1)

   {
     "coefficients": [
       {
         "ci_high": 1424.2505538706323,
         "ci_low": 424.8001488180376,
         "coef": 924.5253513443349,
         "p": 0.00030384254270486837,
         "se": 254.44700879317213,
         "t": 3.6334691287168464,
         "term": "Intercept"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 13.616905039552321,
         "ci_low": -2.930246387039632,
         "coef": 5.343329326256344,
         "p": 0.20515580280742726,
         "se": 4.212688456834862,
         "t": 1.268389386256911,
         "term": "SC8609_ma"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 12.623566618311859,
         "ci_low": -4.795227957932291,
         "coef": 3.9141693301897833,
         "p": 0.37778587878887826,
         "se": 4.434597409037838,
         "t": 0.8826436695724831,
         "term": "pctfb_ma"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": -0.02437175547352103,
         "ci_low": -0.08422743434663013,
         "coef": -0.05429959491007558,
         "p": 0.00039558963583871795,
         "se": 0.015238473436554179,
         "t": -3.5633224768972758,
         "term": "tanfcaseloadK"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.18147448141479788,
         "ci_low": -0.3603100170032159,
         "coef": -0.089417767794209,
         "p": 0.5170558065339779,
         "se": 0.13793125135180495,
         "t": -0.6482777972204549,
         "term": "avgnbrtanf"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": -0.35856339532311843,
         "ci_low": -5.720105112825967,
         "coef": -3.0393342540745425,
         "p": 0.02634460442555422,
         "se": 1.3649784377911336,
         "t": -2.22665367446604,
         "term": "unmarried_births"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 5.864274329989474,
         "ci_low": 0.25801305982576883,
         "coef": 3.061143694907621,
         "p": 0.032378763561122126,
         "se": 1.4272808370427317,
         "t": 2.1447381730775477,
         "term": "pov_rtfull"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.26783110719719594,
         "ci_low": -0.9673894024406948,
         "coef": -0.34977914762174944,
         "p": 0.2664686206365065,
         "se": 0.31447099554759744,
         "t": -1.1122779288839306,
         "term": "cit_ideology"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.1462313748283367,
         "ci_low": -1.1540243445423837,
         "coef": -0.5038964848570235,
         "p": 0.12848696918093078,
         "se": 0.3310281098367095,
         "t": -1.5222166030117112,
         "term": "totdempct"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.5392025633818069,
         "ci_low": -1.3040231545998473,
         "coef": -0.3824102956090202,
         "p": 0.415444734895339,
         "se": 0.46926117404134565,
         "t": -0.8149199566536625,
         "term": "hvd_4yr"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 3.73497452408274,
         "ci_low": 0.6706161492568612,
         "coef": 2.2027953366698005,
         "p": 0.004908460563178044,
         "se": 0.7801455864172866,
         "t": 2.8235695683235753,
         "term": "women_leg"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": -3.148359794110685,
         "ci_low": -14.60883846506287,
         "coef": -8.878599129586778,
         "p": 0.002445609369579869,
         "se": 2.917688063779691,
         "t": -3.04302548302065,
         "term": "unemp"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 2.116516534444355,
         "ci_low": -3.6967809063147716,
         "coef": -0.7901321859352083,
         "p": 0.5936264515602099,
         "se": 1.4799895397994491,
         "t": -0.5338768718880795,
         "term": "adj_GSPpcK"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": -1.6700671231787987,
         "ci_low": -8.749491849409944,
         "coef": -5.209779486294371,
         "p": 0.003985806571769665,
         "se": 1.8023289964759617,
         "t": -2.890581850750275,
         "term": "adj_incpcK"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 2.7952322147892064,
         "ci_low": -7.906574702313166,
         "coef": -2.5556712437619797,
         "p": 0.348615731279311,
         "se": 2.724540152240452,
         "t": -0.9380192990220358,
         "term": "pcturban_MA"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": -0.3396306120783361,
         "ci_low": -5.3506336959587015,
         "coef": -2.845132154018519,
         "p": 0.026107717609378536,
         "se": 1.2757358837426487,
         "t": -2.2301890150426003,
         "term": "high_school"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": -3.191286552220534,
         "ci_low": -11.890670925642745,
         "coef": -7.540978738931639,
         "p": 0.0007065460158684234,
         "se": 2.214749547320321,
         "t": -3.4048900689722013,
         "term": "pop_pcthisp"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 7.620266233917247,
         "ci_low": -15.800555878887552,
         "coef": -4.090144822485152,
         "p": 0.49300432658003307,
         "se": 5.962635164239651,
         "t": -0.6859626171689013,
         "term": "pop_pctblk"
       }
     ]
   }

   • 1113 rows were dropped because one of 'tanfbenefit', 'SC8609_ma', 'pctfb_ma', 'tanfcaseloadK', 'avgnbrtanf', 'unmarried_births', 'pov_rtfull', 'cit_ideology', 'totdempct', 'hvd_4yr', 'women_leg', 'unemp', 'adj_GSPpcK', 'adj_incpcK', 'pcturban_MA', 'high_school', 'pop_pcthisp', 'pop_pctblk', 'statename', 'year' was missing

   Hashes SHA-256 e metadados de reprodução

   Digests dos dados

   hawes_give_us 60919078a61747fd397a97fdf74e9eb6e370d58010c70e207e7c39724b0daaf4

   sha256 do resultado

   9cb047fe5602440f8f5768622458000b1b1c804ad7ff73c9aaf9da81de005d18

   Resultado mostrado ao modelo
4. 3Turno do modelo
   call_83d47360referenceFim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache

   Chamadas pedidas

   • submit_answer (meta-ferramenta)

     {
       "answer": "Estimativa (infer.ols): coef.SC8609_ma = 5,343.",
       "caveats": [],
       "figure_refs": [
         "call_318900d2:coef.SC8609_ma"
       ]
     }

   Mensagens (formato neutro)Instruções do sistemaFerramentas oferecidas
5. 4Guarda
   resposta aceita

   Números encontrados

   5,343

   Sem lastro

   —

   Não citados

   —

   1 nova(s) tentativa(s) restante(s)
6. 5Resposta

   Estimativa (infer.ols): coef.SC8609_ma = 5,343.

   Figuras citadas: call_318900d2:coef.SC8609_ma · Parada: answered

   Figura da resposta: call_318900d2:coef.SC8609_ma = 5,343335.343329326256344 (se 4,212694.212688456834862)
7. 6Pontuação
   #0resposta com lastropassouobrigatóriaevery number backed
8. 7Pontuação
   #1figura da resposta próximafalhouobrigatória5.343329326 vs 44.198

Épocas × verificações

Tentativas

Cada tentativa é seu próprio arquivo e é publicada; só a última de cada época é pontuada.

• época 1, tentativa 1falhoupontuada(exibindo)

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