Tarefa causcibench_real.q151

Veredito

Pergunta feita ao analista

What is the effect of being appointed to the budget committee on the probability a deputy sponsors a budget amendment within the next five years?

Como o agente resolveu e como foi validado

Resumo passo a passo do que o agente executou, por que o caminho está correto e como cada verificação conferiu o resultado.

1. 1Preparação da base de dados
   cirone_cabinets— The dataset comes from French parliamentary records across multiple legislative sessions. It is structured by deputy-year, and includes variables for legislative behavior, career success, policy-making, tenure, and constituent characteristics. An interesting feature of the lower house was that the legislature was randomly assigned into 11 groups called bureaux, and each group chose members to serve on the budget committee. The deputies convened with their assigned group, and after hours of discussion, each bureau nominated three representatives to serve on the budget committee. Bureaux was a temporary committee, and the selection was done every year. This random selection of bureaux (or bureau) for budget selection was done from 1894 to 1910, after which it was disbanded. Variable description: id: ID number (Unique identifier for each deputy) year: Year (1894-1909) term: Term (1893, 1898, 1902, or 1906) leader: Deputy was any type of party leader (defined as a member of a parliamentary governing committee) (1 = yes, 0 = no) centrist_all: Deputy was a member of a Radical or Radical-Socialist party (1 = Radical socialist, 0 = radical party) inscrits: Number of electors in deputy's district (in 000s) permargin: Electoral margin of prior election, as a ratio of total votes cast paris: Whether the deputy represents a Parisian district or suburb (1 = Parisian district, 0 = suburb) age: Age of deputy bureau: Deputy's bureau number (assignment) for that year budget: Deputy was on the budget committee (1 = yes, 0 = no) min: Deputy was a minister (1 = yes, 0 = no) termyear: Identifier for term + year budgettermyears: Number of years a deputy has served on the budget committee, including the current year budgetexptermyears: Budget experience in years proprietaire: Deputy was a property owner (upper class) (1 = yes, 0 = no) lib_all: Deputy held a liberal profession (middle class) (1 = yes, 0 = no) civil: Deputy was a civil servant (1 = yes, 0 = no) reelect: Deputy was reelected the next term (1 = yes, 0 = no) F1to5firstminyear: Became a minister for the first time within 5 years (1 = yes, 0 = no) F1to5firstleaderyear: Became a party leader within 5 years (1 = yes, 0 = no) cummyears: Years of parliamentary experience clburyear: Identifier for term year + bureau budgetincumbent: Deputy was a budget incumbent (1 = yes, 0 = no) bureauotherbudgetincumbent: Number of budget incumbents in deputy's bureau (excluding deputy) reelectterm: Deputy was reelected the next term (1 = yes, 0 = no) reelecttwoterm: Deputy was reelected within the next two terms (1 = yes, 0 = no) senate: Deputy was a senator (1 = yes, 0 = no) rannext: Deputy ran for reelection in the subsequent term (1 = yes, 0 = no) F1to5senateyear: Became a senator within 5 years (1 = yes, 0 = no) F1to5billdummy: Sponsored a bill within 5 years (1 = yes, 0 = no) F1to5billfinancedummy: Sponsored a finance bill within 5 years (1 = yes, 0 = no) F1to5billecondummy: Sponsored an econ bill within 5 years (1 = yes, 0 = no) F1to5billwelfaredummy: Sponsored a welfare bill within 5 years (1 = yes, 0 = no) F1to5billbudgetdummy: Sponsored a budget bill within 5 years (1 = yes, 0 = no) F1to5billagendadummy: Sponsored an agenda bill within 5 years (1 = yes, 0 = no) F1to5billinterpdummy: Sponsored an interpellation bill within 5 years (1 = yes, 0 = no) F1to5cosponsordummy: Cosponsored a budget bill within 5 years (1 = yes, 0 = no) F1to5cosponsordummy_anybm: Co-sponsored with current or previous budget committee member within 5 years (1 = yes, 0 = no) cummyears2: Years of parliamentary experience squared age2: Age, squared inscrits2: Electors, squared permargin2: Electoral Margin of Prior Election, squared deptcode: Department ID
2. 2Chamada que gerou a resposta finalinfer.iv_2sls(Variáveis instrumentais por mínimos quadrados em dois estágios (MQ2E))citada na respostacoincide com a referência

   Ver chamada call_e715aefd nos detalhes

   causcibench_metadata_rule/1: iv

   Por que este é o caminho de referência: causcibench_metadata_rule/1: iv
   Argumentos principais

   dataset:

   "cirone_cabinets"

   endog:

   ["budget"]

   exog:

   ["age","age2","inscrits","inscrits2","permargin","permargin2","cummyears","cummyears2","proprietaire","lib_all","civil","paris","budgetincumbent"]

   instruments:

   ["bureauotherbudgetincumbent"]

   level:

   0,950.95

   se:

   "HC1"

   y:

   "F1to5billbudgetdummy"

   Resultado calculado

   • coef.budget = 0,764652 0.7646518738560152
     2SLS effect of budget on F1to5billbudgetdummy
   Diagnósticos: first_stage_F.budget = 35,905435.90535017542439 (Wald F of the excluded instruments in the first stage for budget (heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors (HC1))) · partial_r2.budget = 0,004096740.00409673990936732 (share of the variation the instruments explain beyond the controls) · weak_instrument = false (every first-stage F is at least 10) · n_obs = 8.1478147 · se_type = "HC1" (heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors (HC1))
3. 3Conferência de lastro e resposta final

   Todos os 1 números escritos na resposta foram conferidos contra as ferramentas e o enunciado (nenhum número sem lastro).

   Números encontrados: 0,7647
   Figuras citadas: call_e715aefd:coef.budget
   • ✓
     #0resposta com lastro

     every number in the answer was stated by a tool call
   • ✗
     #1figura da resposta próxima

     CauSciBench effect accuracy: |answer figure − gold| ≤ 5% of |gold|

Valores esperados e de onde vêm

Verificações

Caminho de referência e caminho do agente

A chamada de referência ao lado da chamada que deu a resposta, argumento por argumento.

Trajetória

Cada evento na ordem em que aconteceu: turnos do modelo, chamadas de ferramentas, guardas, transformações e pontuação.

1. 0Início

   What is the effect of being appointed to the budget committee on the probability a deputy sponsors a budget amendment within the next five years?

   cirone_cabinets (agent)

   The dataset comes from French parliamentary records across multiple legislative sessions. It is structured by deputy-year, and includes variables for legislative behavior, career success, policy-making, tenure, and constituent characteristics. An interesting feature of the lower house was that the legislature was randomly assigned into 11 groups called bureaux, and each group chose members to serve on the budget committee. The deputies convened with their assigned group, and after hours of discussion, each bureau nominated three representatives to serve on the budget committee. Bureaux was a temporary committee, and the selection was done every year. This random selection of bureaux (or bureau) for budget selection was done from 1894 to 1910, after which it was disbanded. Variable description: id: ID number (Unique identifier for each deputy) year: Year (1894-1909) term: Term (1893, 1898, 1902, or 1906) leader: Deputy was any type of party leader (defined as a member of a parliamentary governing committee) (1 = yes, 0 = no) centrist_all: Deputy was a member of a Radical or Radical-Socialist party (1 = Radical socialist, 0 = radical party) inscrits: Number of electors in deputy's district (in 000s) permargin: Electoral margin of prior election, as a ratio of total votes cast paris: Whether the deputy represents a Parisian district or suburb (1 = Parisian district, 0 = suburb) age: Age of deputy bureau: Deputy's bureau number (assignment) for that year budget: Deputy was on the budget committee (1 = yes, 0 = no) min: Deputy was a minister (1 = yes, 0 = no) termyear: Identifier for term + year budgettermyears: Number of years a deputy has served on the budget committee, including the current year budgetexptermyears: Budget experience in years proprietaire: Deputy was a property owner (upper class) (1 = yes, 0 = no) lib_all: Deputy held a liberal profession (middle class) (1 = yes, 0 = no) civil: Deputy was a civil servant (1 = yes, 0 = no) reelect: Deputy was reelected the next term (1 = yes, 0 = no) F1to5firstminyear: Became a minister for the first time within 5 years (1 = yes, 0 = no) F1to5firstleaderyear: Became a party leader within 5 years (1 = yes, 0 = no) cummyears: Years of parliamentary experience clburyear: Identifier for term year + bureau budgetincumbent: Deputy was a budget incumbent (1 = yes, 0 = no) bureauotherbudgetincumbent: Number of budget incumbents in deputy's bureau (excluding deputy) reelectterm: Deputy was reelected the next term (1 = yes, 0 = no) reelecttwoterm: Deputy was reelected within the next two terms (1 = yes, 0 = no) senate: Deputy was a senator (1 = yes, 0 = no) rannext: Deputy ran for reelection in the subsequent term (1 = yes, 0 = no) F1to5senateyear: Became a senator within 5 years (1 = yes, 0 = no) F1to5billdummy: Sponsored a bill within 5 years (1 = yes, 0 = no) F1to5billfinancedummy: Sponsored a finance bill within 5 years (1 = yes, 0 = no) F1to5billecondummy: Sponsored an econ bill within 5 years (1 = yes, 0 = no) F1to5billwelfaredummy: Sponsored a welfare bill within 5 years (1 = yes, 0 = no) F1to5billbudgetdummy: Sponsored a budget bill within 5 years (1 = yes, 0 = no) F1to5billagendadummy: Sponsored an agenda bill within 5 years (1 = yes, 0 = no) F1to5billinterpdummy: Sponsored an interpellation bill within 5 years (1 = yes, 0 = no) F1to5cosponsordummy: Cosponsored a budget bill within 5 years (1 = yes, 0 = no) F1to5cosponsordummy_anybm: Co-sponsored with current or previous budget committee member within 5 years (1 = yes, 0 = no) cummyears2: Years of parliamentary experience squared age2: Age, squared inscrits2: Electors, squared permargin2: Electoral Margin of Prior Election, squared deptcode: Department ID

   file 667bb93d31b83716ba58ff8d36588e0dd813470a04931c6359a8ee1b00d3d4f0 · frame —
2. 1Turno do modelo
   call_1aea76a6referenceFim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache

   Texto visível

   causcibench_metadata_rule/1: iv

   Chamadas pedidas

   • infer.iv_2sls

     {
       "dataset": "cirone_cabinets",
       "endog": [
         "budget"
       ],
       "exog": [
         "age",
         "age2",
         "inscrits",
         "inscrits2",
         "permargin",
         "permargin2",
         "cummyears",
         "cummyears2",
         "proprietaire",
         "lib_all",
         "civil",
         "paris",
         "budgetincumbent"
       ],
       "instruments": [
         "bureauotherbudgetincumbent"
       ],
       "y": "F1to5billbudgetdummy"
     }

   Mensagens (formato neutro)Instruções do sistemaFerramentas oferecidas
3. 2Ferramenta
   infer.iv_2sls— Variáveis instrumentais por mínimos quadrados em dois estágios (MQ2E)v0.1.0call_e715aefddecidido pelo modeloreexecutável

   Motivo: causcibench_metadata_rule/1: iv

   Argumentos

   {
     "cluster": null,
     "dataset": "cirone_cabinets",
     "endog": [
       "budget"
     ],
     "exog": [
       "age",
       "age2",
       "inscrits",
       "inscrits2",
       "permargin",
       "permargin2",
       "cummyears",
       "cummyears2",
       "proprietaire",
       "lib_all",
       "civil",
       "paris",
       "budgetincumbent"
     ],
     "instruments": [
       "bureauotherbudgetincumbent"
     ],
     "level": 0.95,
     "se": "HC1",
     "subset": null,
     "y": "F1to5billbudgetdummy"
   }

   Figuras call_e715aefd

   Chave	Valor	Valor bruto	Erro-padrão	IC
   coef.budget 2SLS effect of budget on F1to5billbudgetdummy	0,764652	0.7646518738560152	0,2740770.27407663443046193	0,227392 – 1,30191

   Diagnósticos

   • first_stage_F.budget = 35,905435.90535017542439 (Wald F of the excluded instruments in the first stage for budget (heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors (HC1)))
   • partial_r2.budget = 0,004096740.00409673990936732 (share of the variation the instruments explain beyond the controls)
   • weak_instrument = false (every first-stage F is at least 10)
   • n_obs = 8.1478147
   • se_type = "HC1" (heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors (HC1))
   • n_clusters = — (errors not clustered)

   Derivação matemática e pressupostos

   coef.budget

   1. Com um instrumento e um regressor endógeno, o MQ2E é a razão entre o coeficiente de bureauotherbudgetincumbent na forma reduzida (F1to5billbudgetdummy sobre bureauotherbudgetincumbent e os controles) e no primeiro estágio (budget sobre bureauotherbudgetincumbent e os controles).β = ρ / π→ 0,764652 (0.7646518738560152)
   2. Erro-padrão robusto à heterocedasticidade (HC1): a raiz da variância estimada do coeficiente.ep = √V_jj→ 0,274077 (0.27407663443046193)
   3. Intervalo de 95% de confiança: a estimativa mais ou menos o valor crítico da distribuição t de Student com 8132 graus de liberdade vezes o erro-padrão.IC = β ± c · ep

   Pressupostos do estimador

   • the instruments affect the outcome only through the endogenous regressors (exclusion restriction)
   • the instruments are as good as randomly assigned given the controls
   • errors are independent across observations; their variance may differ

   Tabelas (3)

   {
     "coefficients": [
       {
         "ci_high": 0.5301928374788256,
         "ci_low": 0.24049901497350326,
         "coef": 0.3853459262261644,
         "p": 1.8834555078482594e-7,
         "se": 0.07389184366353421,
         "t": 5.21499947925015,
         "term": "Intercept"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": -0.004072822921585082,
         "ci_low": -0.014791410725115712,
         "coef": -0.009432116823350397,
         "p": 0.0005635116347978136,
         "se": 0.002733976884363141,
         "t": -3.449962169503689,
         "term": "age"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.00012508366664915058,
         "ci_low": 0.000023489786713813796,
         "coef": 0.00007428672668148219,
         "p": 0.004158052314258131,
         "se": 0.00002591342483050653,
         "t": 2.866727465295451,
         "term": "age2"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.004901478505797436,
         "ci_low": -0.0009882365373266176,
         "coef": 0.0019566209842354094,
         "p": 0.1928055342377487,
         "se": 0.0015022823042120362,
         "t": 1.3024322916868005,
         "term": "inscrits"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": -0.000005837237852138178,
         "ci_low": -0.00010113996011313755,
         "coef": -0.00005348859898263786,
         "p": 0.027807617745126453,
         "se": 0.000024308747052725323,
         "t": -2.2003848600926186,
         "term": "inscrits2"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.0020797055005193354,
         "ci_low": -0.23111001361311367,
         "coef": -0.11451515405629717,
         "p": 0.05422784529363247,
         "se": 0.05947941215892326,
         "t": -1.9252906156894039,
         "term": "permargin"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.22316568760124872,
         "ci_low": -0.027048033514039213,
         "coef": 0.09805882704360476,
         "p": 0.12446706749280505,
         "se": 0.06382170321489104,
         "t": 1.536449547788399,
         "term": "permargin2"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": -0.00010213776292028898,
         "ci_low": -0.008275875294356253,
         "coef": -0.004189006528638271,
         "p": 0.04454404934882963,
         "se": 0.002084865084786307,
         "t": -2.009245854423061,
         "term": "cummyears"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.00021171446254653113,
         "ci_low": -0.000052909193387918585,
         "coef": 0.00007940263457930628,
         "p": 0.23947603787180682,
         "se": 0.00006749722739987658,
         "t": 1.176383647714861,
         "term": "cummyears2"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": -0.009009161112808323,
         "ci_low": -0.05265839923230825,
         "coef": -0.030833780172558285,
         "p": 0.005627908562787323,
         "se": 0.011133556978417135,
         "t": -2.7694455808086182,
         "term": "proprietaire"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.007571555915300799,
         "ci_low": -0.02380644540981159,
         "coef": -0.008117444747255396,
         "p": 0.31050280901720634,
         "se": 0.008003547843505626,
         "t": -1.0142308018864648,
         "term": "lib_all"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": -0.006322840208903592,
         "ci_low": -0.05144081319725595,
         "coef": -0.02888182670307977,
         "p": 0.01210344183628775,
         "se": 0.011508185358041736,
         "t": -2.5096768781967533,
         "term": "civil"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.13304655296464685,
         "ci_low": 0.05807163203718068,
         "coef": 0.09555909250091377,
         "p": 5.94808691818411e-7,
         "se": 0.01912376000270557,
         "t": 4.996877836126074,
         "term": "paris"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": -0.048242187935516406,
         "ci_low": -0.5051901336642154,
         "coef": -0.2767161607998659,
         "p": 0.01761186660497908,
         "se": 0.11655314523504484,
         "t": -2.374162964387028,
         "term": "budgetincumbent"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 1.301912171819981,
         "ci_low": 0.22739157589204928,
         "coef": 0.7646518738560152,
         "p": 0.0052843814075133,
         "se": 0.27407663443046193,
         "t": 2.789919963243057,
         "term": "budget"
       }
     ],
     "first_stage": [
       {
         "ci_high": -0.005606901941287146,
         "ci_low": -0.01105896859161885,
         "coef": -0.008332935266452998,
         "endog": "budget",
         "instrument": "bureauotherbudgetincumbent",
         "p": 2.159583472752838e-9,
         "se": 0.0013906518719848688,
         "t": -5.992107323423404
       }
     ],
     "reduced_form": [
       {
         "ci_high": -0.002349428754431097,
         "ci_low": -0.01039416037799723,
         "coef": -0.006371794566214163,
         "instrument": "bureauotherbudgetincumbent",
         "p": 0.0019078870658030718,
         "se": 0.002051959708021448,
         "t": -3.1052240164881266
       }
     ]
   }

   Hashes SHA-256 e metadados de reprodução

   Digests dos dados

   cirone_cabinets 07239c56e4ad82cd189262eaf36350b339b83df4a4eea3c51ba6ba5423663916

   sha256 do resultado

   0ed0fe7927a08cd1824d4a52695dfcadd7f679e3fda0ed4f596ac8d25be8977c

   Resultado mostrado ao modelo
4. 3Turno do modelo
   call_2f303a6dreferenceFim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache

   Chamadas pedidas

   • submit_answer (meta-ferramenta)

     {
       "answer": "Estimativa (infer.iv_2sls): coef.budget = 0,7647.",
       "caveats": [],
       "figure_refs": [
         "call_e715aefd:coef.budget"
       ]
     }

   Mensagens (formato neutro)Instruções do sistemaFerramentas oferecidas
5. 4Guarda
   resposta aceita

   Números encontrados

   0,7647

   Sem lastro

   —

   Não citados

   —

   1 nova(s) tentativa(s) restante(s)
6. 5Resposta

   Estimativa (infer.iv_2sls): coef.budget = 0,7647.

   Figuras citadas: call_e715aefd:coef.budget · Parada: answered

   Figura da resposta: call_e715aefd:coef.budget = 0,7646520.7646518738560152 (se 0,2740770.27407663443046193)
7. 6Pontuação
   #0resposta com lastropassouobrigatóriaevery number backed
8. 7Pontuação
   #1figura da resposta próximafalhouobrigatória0.7646518739 vs 0.634

Épocas × verificações

Tentativas

Cada tentativa é seu próprio arquivo e é publicada; só a última de cada época é pontuada.

• época 1, tentativa 1falhoupontuada(exibindo)

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