Tarefa causcibench_real.q091

Veredito

Pergunta feita ao analista

How does the percentage of unionised workers in a state effect the state's occupational fatality rate per 100,000 workers?

Como o agente resolveu e como foi validado

Resumo passo a passo do que o agente executou, por que o caminho está correto e como cada verificação conferiu o resultado.

1. 1Preparação da base de dados
   zoorob_does_right— This dataset consists of U.S. state-year panel covering 50 states from 1992-2016, combining annual counts of occupational fatalities, employed population, unionization rates, sectoral employment composition, and statutory right-to-work status; each row is a state-year observation with a derived fatality rate per 100,000 workers and its natural logarithm. The fatalities series comes from the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Census of Fatal Occupational Injuries, employment from BLS state employment data, unionization from the Union Membership and Coverage Database, and sectoral composition from BLS industry employment, yielding 1,250 total observations. Variables: state: State identifier (name or postal abbreviation) for each observation year: Calendar year of the observation, ranging from 1992 to 2016 policy: Annual index of state policy liberalism capturing a state's overall regulatory orientation (higher values indicate more liberal policy environments) fatalities: Number of occupational fatalities in the state during the year from CFOI (count of deaths) employment: Employed population used to scale fatality counts to rates (number of workers or full-time equivalent workers) rate: Occupational fatality rate per 100,000 workers, computed as fatalities divided by employment and multiplied by 100,000 union: Unionization rate (share of workers who are union members or covered by a union contract) expressed in percentage points trtraut: Number of workers employed in trade, transportation, and utilities in the state-year (industry employment count) pctttu: Share of workers employed in trade, transportation, and utilities (percent of total employment) mlc: Number of workers employed in mining, logging, and construction in the state-year (industry employment count) pctmlc: Share of workers employed in mining, logging, and construction (percent of total employment) manuf: Number of workers employed in manufacturing in the state-year (industry employment count) pctmanufacturing: Share of workers employed in manufacturing (percent of total employment) ST: State code used for grouping and identification in the dataset (numeric or categorical state code aligned with state) RTW: Indicator for whether a right-to-work law is in effect in that state-year (1 = RTW in force, 0 = otherwise) lr: Natural logarithm of the fatality rate variable to stabilize scale and interpret changes in proportional terms
2. 2Chamada que gerou a resposta finalinfer.ols(Regressão linear por mínimos quadrados ordinários (MQO))citada na resposta

   Ver chamada call_ed54d46e nos detalhes

   Linha de base ingênua: regressão do resultado no tratamento, sem controles.

   Argumentos principais

   dataset:

   "zoorob_does_right"

   intercept:

   true

   level:

   0,950.95

   se:

   "HC1"

   x:

   ["union"]

   y:

   "lr"

   Resultado calculado

   • coef.union = -0,0229326 -0.022932598951180404
     Coefficient on union in the regression of lr
   Diagnósticos: n_obs = 1.2501250 (observations used) · k = 22 (parameters estimated, fixed-effect dummies included) · r2 = 0,06908150.06908146957065542 · df_resid = 1.2481248 · se_type = "HC1" (heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors (HC1))
3. 3Conferência de lastro e resposta final

   Todos os 1 números escritos na resposta foram conferidos contra as ferramentas e o enunciado (nenhum número sem lastro).

   Números encontrados: -0,02293
   Figuras citadas: call_ed54d46e:coef.union
   • ✓
     #0resposta com lastro

     every number in the answer was stated by a tool call
   • ✗
     #1figura da resposta próxima

     CauSciBench effect accuracy: |answer figure − gold| ≤ 5% of |gold|

Valores esperados e de onde vêm

Verificações

Caminho de referência e caminho do agente

A chamada de referência ao lado da chamada que deu a resposta, argumento por argumento.

Nenhum caminho de referência registrado para esta tarefa.

Trajetória

Cada evento na ordem em que aconteceu: turnos do modelo, chamadas de ferramentas, guardas, transformações e pontuação.

1. 0Início

   How does the percentage of unionised workers in a state effect the state's occupational fatality rate per 100,000 workers?

   zoorob_does_right (agent)

   This dataset consists of U.S. state-year panel covering 50 states from 1992-2016, combining annual counts of occupational fatalities, employed population, unionization rates, sectoral employment composition, and statutory right-to-work status; each row is a state-year observation with a derived fatality rate per 100,000 workers and its natural logarithm. The fatalities series comes from the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Census of Fatal Occupational Injuries, employment from BLS state employment data, unionization from the Union Membership and Coverage Database, and sectoral composition from BLS industry employment, yielding 1,250 total observations. Variables: state: State identifier (name or postal abbreviation) for each observation year: Calendar year of the observation, ranging from 1992 to 2016 policy: Annual index of state policy liberalism capturing a state's overall regulatory orientation (higher values indicate more liberal policy environments) fatalities: Number of occupational fatalities in the state during the year from CFOI (count of deaths) employment: Employed population used to scale fatality counts to rates (number of workers or full-time equivalent workers) rate: Occupational fatality rate per 100,000 workers, computed as fatalities divided by employment and multiplied by 100,000 union: Unionization rate (share of workers who are union members or covered by a union contract) expressed in percentage points trtraut: Number of workers employed in trade, transportation, and utilities in the state-year (industry employment count) pctttu: Share of workers employed in trade, transportation, and utilities (percent of total employment) mlc: Number of workers employed in mining, logging, and construction in the state-year (industry employment count) pctmlc: Share of workers employed in mining, logging, and construction (percent of total employment) manuf: Number of workers employed in manufacturing in the state-year (industry employment count) pctmanufacturing: Share of workers employed in manufacturing (percent of total employment) ST: State code used for grouping and identification in the dataset (numeric or categorical state code aligned with state) RTW: Indicator for whether a right-to-work law is in effect in that state-year (1 = RTW in force, 0 = otherwise) lr: Natural logarithm of the fatality rate variable to stabilize scale and interpret changes in proportional terms

   file 084e55af44aa47af396b25c1a5f50154f0296498873f751c2da4782c2a2f3b18 · frame —
2. 1Turno do modelo
   call_967f07fcnaive-olsFim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache

   Texto visível

   Linha de base ingênua: regressão do resultado no tratamento, sem controles.

   Chamadas pedidas

   • infer.ols

     {
       "dataset": "zoorob_does_right",
       "x": [
         "union"
       ],
       "y": "lr"
     }

   Mensagens (formato neutro)Instruções do sistemaFerramentas oferecidas
3. 2Ferramenta
   infer.ols— Regressão linear por mínimos quadrados ordinários (MQO)v0.1.0call_ed54d46edecidido pelo modeloreexecutável

   Motivo: Linha de base ingênua: regressão do resultado no tratamento, sem controles.

   Argumentos

   {
     "cluster": null,
     "controls": [],
     "dataset": "zoorob_does_right",
     "fe": [],
     "intercept": true,
     "level": 0.95,
     "se": "HC1",
     "subset": null,
     "weights": null,
     "x": [
       "union"
     ],
     "y": "lr"
   }

   Figuras call_ed54d46e

   Chave	Valor	Valor bruto	Erro-padrão	IC
   coef.union Coefficient on union in the regression of lr	-0,0229326	-0.022932598951180404	0,002411560.0024115605005975544	-0,0276638 – -0,0182014

   Diagnósticos

   • n_obs = 1.2501250 (observations used)
   • k = 22 (parameters estimated, fixed-effect dummies included)
   • r2 = 0,06908150.06908146957065542
   • df_resid = 1.2481248
   • se_type = "HC1" (heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors (HC1))
   • n_clusters = — (errors not clustered)

   Derivação matemática e pressupostos

   coef.union

   1. Coeficiente de union na regressão por mínimos quadrados ordinários de lr.→ -0,0229326 (-0.022932598951180404)
   2. Erro-padrão robusto à heterocedasticidade (HC1): a raiz da variância estimada do coeficiente.ep = √V_jj→ 0,00241156 (0.0024115605005975544)
   3. Intervalo de 95% de confiança: a estimativa mais ou menos o valor crítico da distribuição t de Student com 1248 graus de liberdade vezes o erro-padrão.IC = β ± c · ep

   Pressupostos do estimador

   • the conditional mean of the outcome is linear in the regressors
   • errors are independent across observations; their variance may differ

   Tabelas (1)

   {
     "coefficients": [
       {
         "ci_high": 1.865009957123269,
         "ci_low": 1.7546904337616607,
         "coef": 1.8098501954424648,
         "p": 0,
         "se": 0.028115958595184527,
         "t": 64.37092263154923,
         "term": "Intercept"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": -0.018201438815150586,
         "ci_low": -0.02766375908721022,
         "coef": -0.022932598951180404,
         "p": 9.473793012011091e-21,
         "se": 0.0024115605005975544,
         "t": -9.509443758718884,
         "term": "union"
       }
     ]
   }

   • 100 rows were dropped because one of 'lr', 'union' was missing

   Hashes SHA-256 e metadados de reprodução

   Digests dos dados

   zoorob_does_right 981c4493576b3e58caa89f271bf4ae2ef41ab213843ea86787177d7300ceaef0

   sha256 do resultado

   934b6e9133893ff2d1b55319e3bd1b64946603525fcae5723f94fa739cb6e92d

   Resultado mostrado ao modelo
4. 3Turno do modelo
   call_7d1fbf01naive-olsFim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache

   Chamadas pedidas

   • submit_answer (meta-ferramenta)

     {
       "answer": "Estimativa ingênua (infer.ols): coef.union = -0,02293.",
       "caveats": [],
       "figure_refs": [
         "call_ed54d46e:coef.union"
       ]
     }

   Mensagens (formato neutro)Instruções do sistemaFerramentas oferecidas
5. 4Guarda
   resposta aceita

   Números encontrados

   -0,02293

   Sem lastro

   —

   Não citados

   —

   1 nova(s) tentativa(s) restante(s)
6. 5Resposta

   Estimativa ingênua (infer.ols): coef.union = -0,02293.

   Figuras citadas: call_ed54d46e:coef.union · Parada: answered

   Figura da resposta: call_ed54d46e:coef.union = -0,0229326-0.022932598951180404 (se 0,002411560.0024115605005975544)
7. 6Pontuação
   #0resposta com lastropassouobrigatóriaevery number backed
8. 7Pontuação
   #1figura da resposta próximafalhouobrigatória-0.02293259895 vs -0.05

Épocas × verificações

Tentativas

Cada tentativa é seu próprio arquivo e é publicada; só a última de cada época é pontuada.

• época 1, tentativa 1falhoupontuada(exibindo)

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