Reassessing the winner-loser gap in satisfaction with democracy
Jean-François Daoust e outros, 2024 · PLOS ONE
Learning that one's preferred party entered government did not boost democratic satisfaction, yielding an unexpected estimate of -0.32 on normalized satisfaction among electoral winners.
Estimativa · Satisfaction with democracy, normalized score (centered at 0)
-0,320 [-0,610; -0,0200]
normalized score
- Desenho
- Regressão descontínua. Regression discontinuity design around the government formation announcement date
- População
- Voters surveyed before and after government formation announcements in Norway (1997), Netherlands (2012), and Iceland (2017)
- Amostra
- 2.037 · survey respondents (electoral winners)
Onde está o número
Findings; Table 1, row 'Robust', column 'Electoral Winners' (and text in Findings section)
The impact on satisfaction with democracy is estimated to be -0.32 (95% confidence interval: -0.61 to -0.02) for winners
Contexto
What changed: Voters learned whether their preferred party entered the governing coalition following a period of post-electoral coalition uncertainty. Comparison: Voters surveyed just after the announcement versus just before using a regression discontinuity design. Limits: Sample restricted to three consolidated consensus democracies with proportional representation.
Caminho no grafo
- FamíliaOutro instrumento
- EixoVoz política
MAGI só cita evidência deste instrumento
Lugares do estudo
- Norway · País · NO
- Netherlands · País · NL
- Iceland · País · IS
- Licença
- CC-BY
- Revisão
- Extraído por máquina, não revisadoExtraído por: gemini-3.8-flash, 2026-10-23