Effects of the Pelotas (Brazil) Peace Pact on violence and crime: a synthetic control analysis
Michelle Degli Esposti e outros, 2023 · Lancet Regional Health - Americas
The Pelotas Peace Pact was associated with a statistically significant acceleration in the downward trend of monthly homicides by 0.04 per 100,000 residents relative to synthetic controls.
Estimativa · monthly homicide rate per 100,000 residents, difference in monthly trend
-0,0400 [-0,0600; -0,0200]
difference in monthly trend (homicides per 100,000 residents per month)
p < 0.001
- Desenho
- Controle sintético. Synthetic control method with controlled interrupted time series
- População
- Residents of Pelotas and 22 comparison municipalities in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, 2012–2021
- Amostra
- 23 · municipalities
Onde está o número
Results > Homicide; Results section, Homicide subsection; also Table 2, row 'Synthetic control', column 'Difference in change in trend'
this decrease was more-than-twice as pronounced in Pelotas (B = −0.04; 95%CI:−0.06, −0.02; p < 0.001).
Contexto
What changed: Rollout of the Pelotas Peace Pact, a municipal multi-sector programme combining policing, focused deterrence, and social prevention to reduce crime. Comparison: Synthetic control constructed from a donor pool of 22 municipalities in Rio Grande do Sul. Limits: Reductions appeared mostly during the COVID-19 pandemic when university closures and local mobility restrictions may have confounded results.
Caminho no grafo
- FamíliaRegras e regulação
- TipoFiscalização e policiamento
- ResultadoCriminalidade
- EixoPaz e justiça
MAGI só cita evidência deste instrumento
Lugares do estudo
- Pelotas · Município · BR
- Rio Grande do Sul · Estado ou região · BR
- Licença
- CC-BY
- Revisão
- Extraído por máquina, não revisadoExtraído por: gemini-3.8-flash, 2026-10-23