Unobserved confounders cannot explain over-crediting in avoided deforestation carbon projects
Alejandro Guizar-Coutiño e outros, 2026 · Nature Ecology & Evolution
REDD+ carbon offset projects reduced forest loss by an average of 0.26% per year compared to matched control plots.
Estimativa · annual reduction in forest loss rate, percentage points per year
0,260 [0,160; 0,420]
% per year
- Desenho
- Pareamento. covariate-adjusted matching across treated plots and matched control plots
- População
- 36 tropical moist forest REDD+ projects and surrounding control plots in the Americas, Africa, and Asia-Pacific
- Amostra
- 36 · REDD+ projects
Onde está o número
Results > Avoided deforestation; Section 'Results', subsection 'Avoided deforestation', paragraph 4
The 36 site-level estimates of avoided deforestation reveal a mean reduction of 0.26% per year (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.16–0.42% per year) in the rates of forest loss compared to controls.
Contexto
What changed: Establishment of REDD+ projects aimed at avoiding deforestation in tropical moist forests. Comparison: Matched control plots in the surrounding landscape sharing similar pre-treatment forest trends, accessibility, and geography. Limits: Sample restricted to 36 projects with adequate baseline data; certified carbon crediting baselines substantially overstated avoided deforestation.
Caminho no grafo
- FamíliaInstrumentos de mercado e direitos
- TipoPagamento por serviços ambientais
- ResultadoDesmatamento
- EixoConversão de terras
MAGI só cita evidência deste instrumento
Lugares do estudo
- Brazil · País · BR
- Colombia · País · CO
- Madagascar · País · MG
- Peru · País · PE
- Licença
- CC-BY
- Revisão
- Extraído por máquina, não revisadoExtraído por: gemini-3.8-flash, 2026-10-23