Trade-offs between nature and people in Ethiopia’s protected areas demonstrate challenges in translating global conservation targets into national realities
Sophie Jago e outros, 2026 · Nature Ecology & Evolution
Strict protected area status in Ethiopia reduced forest cover loss by 0.07 percentage points relative to counterfactual control land.
Estimativa · forest cover change, percentage points
0,0700 [0,000300; 0,140]
percentage points
P = 0.04
- Desenho
- Pareamento. Propensity score matching with covariate-adjusted linear regression on 1-km grid cells
- População
- Strict protected areas and matched unprotected land across Ethiopia between 2000 and 2021
- Amostra
- 4.702 · 1-km grid cells (2,639 treated and 2,063 control units)
Onde está o número
Results > Protected area effectiveness; Results, subsection 'Protected area effectiveness', second paragraph
Strict protected areas moderately reduced forest cover loss by 25% relative to controls (average treatment effect on the treated (ATT) = 0.07, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.0003 to 0.14, Wald test statistic (z4675) = 2.04, P = 0.04)
Contexto
What changed: Strict protection (IUCN category II) across the national protected area network from 2000 to 2021. Comparison: Statistically matched unprotected 1-km grid cells outside a 10-km buffer, adjusting for baseline elevation, slope, climate, and accessibility. Limits: Assumes no unobserved spatial confounding.
Caminho no grafo
- FamíliaRegras e regulação
- TipoÁreas protegidas
- MecanismoFiscalização e condicionalidade ambiental
- ResultadoDesmatamento
- EixoConversão de terras
MAGI só cita evidência deste instrumento
Lugares do estudo
- Ethiopia · País · ET
- Licença
- CC-BY
- Revisão
- Extraído por máquina, não revisadoExtraído por: gemini-3.8-flash, 2026-10-23